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-   -   Good spot to b/f river? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=518240)

Mike MacIntosh 10-08-2007 12:18 PM

Good spot to b/f river?
 
Villain is 20/11/7 over 160 hands. Nothing really worth mentioning other than a few times he has 3bet my button open where I folded both. Probably views me as 21/17ish TAG.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($99.90)
Button ($117.45)
SB ($83.05)
BB ($110.40)
UTG ($76.50)
MP ($137.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, Button calls $16.

River: ($55.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $32</font>

Standard b/f river spot?

Suwalski 10-08-2007 12:22 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
Ï bet pot on turn and river, and yes b/f is good.

martijn 10-08-2007 12:23 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
against someone with a 7 aggr factor I prefer to c/c, but B/f sounds good too.

ok2aa 10-08-2007 12:26 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
i'd bet less on the river. i think 23 accomplishes same as 32 here

YouCantEscape 10-08-2007 12:28 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
ok2aa:
No I do not like 23. This really looks like a scared blocking bet, and a lot of villains will shove u with air probably.

32 is fine.

Mike MacIntosh 10-08-2007 12:29 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
against someone with a 7 aggr factor I prefer to c/c, but B/f sounds good too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not put much stock into aggro factor over 160ish hands. It usually takes a larger sample size for that number to become reliable enough to adjust our play.

Mike MacIntosh 10-08-2007 12:32 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet less on the river. i think 23 accomplishes same as 32 here

[/ QUOTE ]

No, 23 will induce a bluff shove more often than 32. I would rather c/c than put myself in a spot where I suspect villain is FOS but can't call.

KhalynYohrk 10-08-2007 12:37 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet less on the river. i think 23 accomplishes same as 32 here

[/ QUOTE ]

No, 23 will induce a bluff shove more often than 32. I would rather c/c than put myself in a spot where I suspect villain is FOS but can't call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definately c/c will induce here as everyone loves to rep an ace.

Dankie 10-08-2007 12:42 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
so what happened?

TheDunePariah 10-08-2007 01:04 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
Villain's range to me is 66-88, 67s, possibly Axss (maybe 99-TT but unlikely because he has been 3betting you in position), given his stats. I think it is most likely an overpair being played cautiously in fear of a higher overpair.

67s probably raises the flop given the AF, and I don't think he's slowplaying a set here.

Given his range, I think betting the river is either going to fold out 77-TT or get a raise from 66/Ax (or a raise from air which will make you fold a better hand since you are planning on b/f). I like c/c here a lot more, keep the pot small on the river.

Imrahil 10-08-2007 01:16 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
lol c/c is terrible here.

orange 10-08-2007 01:16 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
i think this is okay.

Noam Chomsky 10-08-2007 01:19 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
I think I'd rather c/c (maybe c/f?) here because an A is much more in your range than it is in his so I don't see how you can ever get called by worse but he seems aggro enough post flop to try to rep the A/6

Merlinius 10-08-2007 01:21 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
imo it is unlikely, villain will bluff raise this river. as most of his hands have enough showdown value to check behind on the river, i think b/f is good here.

but both lines seem to be very close in value anyway.

Imrahil 10-08-2007 01:22 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
people. b/f and c/f are so much better than c/c it's not even funny.

bilbo-san 10-08-2007 01:23 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
c/c is terrible here. He check's behind hands that would call a bet, like 54, 43, etc. He's very unlikely to turn any made hands into a bluff. Why would he suddenly rep an ace if he has a hand like that, or some [censored] like TT?

If you check and he bets, his most likely hand is 65, lol.

djj6835 10-08-2007 01:23 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd rather c/c (maybe c/f?) here because an A is much more in your range than it is in his so I don't see how you can ever get called by worse but he seems aggro enough post flop to try to rep the A/6


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would villain feel the need to rep anything here? The way the hand played out he has something and will just check behind with less than a straight

Noam Chomsky 10-08-2007 01:27 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
If you say so. In that case, I'd rather c/f. I think betting here is really pointless as I can't see us ever getting called by worse. There are plenty of aces in our range here. In my mind b/f is the worst option available to us vs his likely range.

Gustav 10-08-2007 01:47 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 20/11/7 over 160 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands is he gonna call $32 on the river with that we beat? I wouldn't even consider betting here.

Imrahil 10-08-2007 01:50 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 20/11/7 over 160 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands is he gonna call $32 on the river with that we beat? I wouldn't even consider betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We give him a chance to make a mistake.

Speedlimits 10-08-2007 02:00 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
bet more on turn and i c/c river.

Unknown Soldier 10-08-2007 02:06 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
to the c/cers: you do realise his range is mostly bluff catchers and hands that beats us, right?

Gustav 10-08-2007 02:16 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 20/11/7 over 160 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands is he gonna call $32 on the river with that we beat? I wouldn't even consider betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

We give him a chance to make a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

C/c gives him a chance to make a mistake as well, though I don't think either scenario is a mistake this villain is likely to make very often given the action up to this point. I would advocate a c/f, and I think it will go check/check a lot. We'll be betting into an A or 6 way more often than he will call with a worse hand, or bluff with a weaker hand when checked to imo.

Noam Chomsky 10-08-2007 02:17 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
I know what you're saying but:

a. I think he'd have to be stupid to call with worse on the river, like, really stupid.

b. I don't think his range has very many hands at all that beat us here.

c. His agg factor is ridiculous. Small sample size, blah, blah but it doesn't change the fact that it makes him more likely to bluff the river here than to call with worse. Also, note that if we check the river, we announce that we don't have a str8 and allow him to potentially value bet worse.

I'm still undecided as to c/c or c/f, I think both are viable but I also think b/f is the worst line available against any opponent with a pulse.

Imrahil 10-08-2007 02:28 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
AHHHHHHHHH C/C IS [censored] TERRIBLE GUYS

Unknown Soldier 10-08-2007 02:32 PM

Re: Good spot to b/f river?
 
Noam, think about how the board came out and think of nit on nit violence.


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