CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Predictions:

Auburn PK @ Arkansas
Missouri +14 @ Oklahoma
LSU -13 @ Kentucky

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Predictions:

Auburn PK @ Arkansas
Missouri +14 @ Oklahoma
LSU -13 @ Kentucky

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about the status of McFadden's ribs, but I actually expect AU to be laying a point or two. That being said, AU traditionally has done an abysmal job of defending the run against Arky.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

mmm...McRibs...

I hope he plays. I am really looking forward to seeing how he fares against Auburn's D-line. It should be an exciting game of strength on strength and I hate to see it decided by an injury. It may be off the board until we know something.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I expect Iowa to be a play this week

the public has to be all over Illinois right now
Iowa has looked like crap
Iowa at home

wonder what the line will be, but I'm smelling an Iowa play






If it's a pk, I'm definitely on Ark v Auburn
Auburn's D came into last year's game looking good...Ark just beat them up

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I agree. Arkansas is a very bad matchup for Auburn.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Predictions:
Auburn PK @ Arkansas
Missouri +14 @ Oklahoma
LSU -13 @ Kentucky

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???

Ark -2.5
Missou +10/11
LSU -9/10 maybe even less.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

GT at Miami -3?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I'd say more like:
LSU -9 at Kentucky
Georgia Tech -1 at Miami

Not sure about the rest though.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say more like:
LSU -9 at Kentucky
Georgia Tech -1.5 at Miami

Not sure about the rest though.

[/ QUOTE ]

After a 2-pt loss at Maryland? C'mon, be serious!

Miami lost away too, but outscored a decent UNC team 4 TDs-0 TDs at UNC in the second half [VT only scored 2 TDs all game at home v UNC]. VT only 241 yds of O and 10 pts came from a 7-yd drive and 12-yd TD drive after a pick on UNC.

UVa only had 1 TD on UNC's D. UNC's one bad game was at top 5 USF, remember. They are pretty solid now that frosh Yates and Elzy have some experience under their belt.

Remember, we're talking where the line will open, not who's better. If you think GT is 2 pts better I"m not gonna argue but I really can't imagine they open as road fave at OBowl.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

When there's no obvious public lean, I find the lines open pretty much along the Sagarin predictor. Sagarin has the Jackets 4.5 points better at a neutral site. Also, if there is a square angle here, it's probably Georgia Tech's history of beating down Miami, and I could see the books adjusting a point or so for that in the opener.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Gimme a BC at Notre Dame line prediction.

Curious to see if the line gets overcompensated b/c Notre Dame showed up in the boxscore with a 20-6 road win.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

BC -13.5? Hard to say here as BC really hasn't been that impressive against weak opponents.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say more like:
LSU -9 at Kentucky
Georgia Tech -1.5 at Miami

Not sure about the rest though.

[/ QUOTE ]

After a 2-pt loss at Maryland? C'mon, be serious!

Miami lost away too, but outscored a decent UNC team 4 TDs-0 TDs at UNC in the second half [VT only scored 2 TDs all game at home v UNC]. VT only 241 yds of O and 10 pts came from a 7-yd drive and 12-yd TD drive after a pick on UNC.

UVa only had 1 TD on UNC's D. UNC's one bad game was at top 5 USF, remember. They are pretty solid now that frosh Yates and Elzy have some experience under their belt.

Remember, we're talking where the line will open, not who's better. If you think GT is 2 pts better I"m not gonna argue but I really can't imagine they open as road fave at OBowl.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like someone is ready to fade South Carolina next week!

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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probably Georgia Tech's history of beating down Miami,

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LOLLLL. Like being down 16-13 in the 4th Q at home to a 3-5 in ACC Miami team last year that almost lost to Duke?

Or when Miami went to Bobby Dodd and won 27-3 the time before that? If last year's 7-pt come-from-behind win was a 'beatdown,' what is the prior 24-pt home loss - an annhilation? Or when Miami whooped them by over 2 TDs in the bowl game before that?

GT is 1-3 in conf, on the road, and should be favored. Got it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Depends where line is, obvs. UNC at home could be very tough if they play like they did in 1st half.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
BC -13.5? Hard to say here as BC really hasn't been that impressive against weak opponents.

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Agree, could be anywhere from 11 to 18 and I wouldn't be shocked, depends how many ND lovers will be backing them again.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I never said that Georgia Tech should be favored over Miami on the road. Just that it was a strong possibility given the embarrassing performance the Canes put forth against UNC. Off the top of my head, I was thinking Miami had been in the ACC four years, not three, so I guess GT's history against them isn't that strong after all.

Still, GT did cover against them last year and pulled a huge upset the year before. I'd think that's in your average sqaures mind just a little. Remember, I was never using this to predict what would happen in the game, just where the line would open.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Squares don't remember who covered the GT game last year, you are fooling yourself. And if they did know GT was losing in the 4th at home to a 3-5 ACC team and covered by 1, it wouldn't be seen as a plus.

I hear you that you don't think it *should* be that, I'm just saying you are not that close with your initial prediction of GT being favored. No biggie either way. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Predictions:

Auburn PK @ Arkansas
Missouri +14 @ Oklahoma
LSU -13 @ Kentucky

[/ QUOTE ]

14 too many for Missouri and 13 too many for Kentucky. I say LSU -9.5/10 and Oklahoma -11/12.

Missouri beat Nebraska like a rented mule last night if you didn't catch it.

Auburn/Arkansas is interesting. You all should just wait to see if I do anything because I am 0-4 on Auburn this season.

I am really not impressed with Arkansas. The only thing they do well is run (albeit they do it very well) - their passing game is comically bad and they don't play much defense, especially in the secondary. PK or Auburn -1/-2 is prolly about right. Auburn +3 would probably get me on Auburn, thus ensuring a blowout Auburn loss where Cox throws 6 interceptions.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Colorado @ Kansas State -3 ???
Louisville @ Cincinnati -5 ????

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Colorado @ Kansas State -3 ???
Louisville @ Cincinnati -5 ????

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I think Cincy has to be more than 5, esp. depending on status of Douglas and Urrutia (although I would expect Douglas to play). Louisville has just been unspeakably bad.

K-State -4
Cincy -7 (or more)

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

Tennessee -7 @ Mississippi State?
Illinois -6 @ Iowa?
Purdue @ Michigan -5.5?
Alabama -6 @ Ole Miss?
UGA -6 @ Vandy?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I revise UGA/Vandy up to 7.5. Vandy didn't compete very well against Alabama or Auburn, and UGA is probably better than both.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

If Tennessee is just -7, it'll be my play of the year.

I haven't been able to get on early lines in 2 weeks - what time do they come out?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

BC -14 @ Notre Dame?
Wisconsin @ Penn State PK?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
If Tennessee is just -7, it'll be my play of the year.

I haven't been able to get on early lines in 2 weeks - what time do they come out?

[/ QUOTE ]

6:15-6:30

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I think Penn State will be -2ish.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

For LSU/Kentucky I am projecting a total of 51.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

UCF/South Florida is an interesting game - the battle for the directional Florida championship.

UCF has really been impressive - even in the loss this week they outgained ECU by 120 yards but were done in by a -5 TO margin.

South Florida -10.5? I don't think it can be more than this even at home.

Edit: Well, I guess it could be up to 14 - but I'd be on UCF at that number.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

How bad is Iowa? seems like definite trap game for UfI.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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How bad is Iowa? seems like definite trap game for UfI.

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Iowa is really, really, really bad offensively. Their defense is slightly above average. However, Iowa struggled to stop Indiana tons in Iowa City. Illinois runs the same plays as Indiana but with more of a run focus. If the Illini run for 300 yards, it will obviously be a long day for the Hawkeyes. But, I agree, this one definitely smells like an Iowa pick as I expect the public to be riding Illinois hard and fading Iowa after the last few weeks.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I think ND will get love for the outright win despite still sucking. The lines for this team have seemed incorrect all season. They started off way too low... and then went way way too high (Purdue is good?) and who knows?

I'll likely back BC under ~17.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

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I think Penn State will be -2/3ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think ND will get love for the outright win despite still sucking. The lines for this team have seemed incorrect all season. They started off way too low... and then went way way too high (Purdue is good?) and who knows?

I'll likely back BC under ~17.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL Notre Dame had 140 total yards.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

FSU -9 at Wake?

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
FSU -9 at Wake?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the hardest to cap, IMO. I had Wake +6.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
FSU -9 at Wake?

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Not my area of expertise but that strikes me as WAYYYYYY too many. Didn't Wake beat them 30-0 at FSU last year? Hasn't FSU been pretty much totally unimpressive thus far?

Yeah I'm sure that's too many. Wake has already beat Maryland and played BC as competitively as anyone.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

FWIW, Sagarin predictor only has BC favored by 10.5 based on BC not being in the Top 20.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

I'd say FSU -4.5 at Wake. The Deacons have been decent at home and when the 'Noles win they don't really outscore anyone too bad.

Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FSU -9 at Wake?

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the hardest to cap, IMO. I had Wake +6.

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I mean, does Wake have someone hurt or what? What am I missing?