Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

I know this was awhile ago, but, uh...

They both flop, sets, get it all in on the turn, and Baxter has the higher set (no redraws for either). The question is whether to run the river once or twice, and...

Elezra says once.

What the &*^%#$?!

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

You dont know much about poker do you?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You dont know much about poker do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You dont know much about poker do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, never mind.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

pretty brutal for someone with 4k posts

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

kirby just has a small dick and takes it out on others

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

when they get it in, elezra ask once or twice, because he thinks baxter is drawing.
after he realises baxter has the higher set he sighs and says "ok once i guess" (or something like that) off course he doesnt suggest running it twice after he knows baxter has a higher set.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

I don't know much about poker either I guess. Wouldn't running it twice give him more chances to chop? He could make quads on either river, as opposed to just the one river.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
when they get it in, elezra ask once or twice, because he thinks baxter is drawing.
after he realises baxter has the higher set he sighs and says "ok once i guess" (or something like that) off course he doesnt suggest running it twice after he knows baxter has a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the point, then, that there is no way on God's green Earth that Baxter would be dumb enough to run it twice, and he was just resigned to it getting run just once?

See, my general impression was that the "once or twice" question was asked before the reveal, and that was part of the point.

I suppose what happened was that Elezra asked the question and Baxter revealed his cards, and then Elezra must've said "Ok, once then, I guess," or whatever, relatively sarcastically.

For those brainiacs and their first couple of responses to my question, go back and watch it, and tell me that it doesn't actually appear as if it's ELEZRA making the decision to run it just once.

Sorry, I don't know much about poker.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

run once: elezra wins whole pot rarely or loses whole pot

run twice: elezra wins half pot rarely, loses whole pot most the time, wins whole pot extremely rarely

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

+gets baxter on donkeytilt if he hits his one outer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

i dont remember the board but i dont think he could have won both..but this did come from a micro donk

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
run once: elezra wins whole pot rarely or loses whole pot

run twice: elezra wins half pot rarely, loses whole pot most the time, wins whole pot extremely rarely

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one way to put it.

Another is:

Run once, Elezra almost never wins (virtually always loses), never splits pot.

Run twice, Elezra never wins (statistically-speaking), splits rarely, and loses most the time.

This is subjective. Hard to say which way some folks would go on this.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

oops im an idiot, i just rememered theres only 1...

but its much better to run it once still

run once: win whole pot almost never, lose pot almost always

run twice: win half pot almost never, lose pot almost always

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
oops im an idiot, i just rememered theres only 1...

but its much better to run it once still

run once: win whole pot almost never, lose pot almost always

run twice: win half pot almost never, lose pot almost always

[/ QUOTE ]

But, uh, you forgot to mention that the chances of splitting the pot when run twice are (actually technically better than) double those of winning the pot when run only once.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

but in a set v set thing, would you rather have a 2.5% chance of winning the whole pot or a 5-6% chance of winning half the pot?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

I'm pretty sure he can't win the whole pot, either of the times. I don't remember the exact board, but they each had a set.

If it's run twice, Elezra would need the 4th of his card (x) to win it once, garnering half the pot. He can't get card X twice, there's only one of them, so he can only ever win HALF the pot.

So the way I see it, he can either draw to 1 card hoping for the win, or he can draw to 2 cards hoping to get a chop. And I'm not sure (at all) if my estimates are correct, but I'd think he has a %2 chance to get his money back if they run it once, and a %4 chance to get his money back if they run it twice. No?

Err- wow, I was responding to a post on the first page, guess it took me a while to type, haha. I guess ignore me, it seems like everyone knows more about what's going on than I do.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You dont know much about poker do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity (and because I don't know much about poker), I was wondering if you could post a response that is more specific, and less designed to simply perpetuate the persona of an internet know it all douchebag.

I mean, I get the fact that you're some sort of poker stud and all, but what I need is the acumen that you so clearly possess.

Please, clearly explain what your point is.

I promise, after you do so, I'll go back to my little world that involves no understanding of poker whatsoever.

Except, of course, for that knowledge that you will so graciously impart.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

Run it twice is to reduce variance, and no chances increase or decrease. Set vs set is a situation nobody can get away from, thus there is no reason to reduce variance.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

Oh my God. Has this thread really gone on this long without someone pointing out that running it once, twice, 25 times makes no difference in terms of EV?

For shame 2+2.

It sounds like the guy right above me eluded to that point but lets be clear: No matter how many times you run a poker hand, any hand, your EV remains the same while your variance decreases.

If they run it twice the underset hits the one outter twice as often, yes. But he also wins half the money as he is 100% guaranteed to lose 1/2 the pot everytime he manages to suck out.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

All this other discussion is useless, to answer your question you had it right here:

Is the point, then, that there is no way on God's green Earth that Baxter would be dumb enough to run it twice, and he was just resigned to it getting run just once?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh my God. Has this thread really gone on this long without someone pointing out that running it once, twice, 25 times makes no difference in terms of EV?

For shame 2+2.

It sounds like the guy right above me eluded to that point but lets be clear: No matter how many times you run a poker hand, any hand, your EV remains the same while your variance decreases.

If they run it twice the underset hits the one outter twice as often, yes. But he also wins half the money as he is 100% guaranteed to lose 1/2 the pot everytime he manages to suck out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus Christ. I love it when someone here adopts such a condescending tone over a point that is clearly open to interpretation.

I'm sorry to point this out, but nobody has brought up EV. Everything is not always a question of EV. In this case, we're talking about variance, obviously.

In the Real World (read: not the Poker Theorist Unlimited Bankroll Fantasy World), a better player will look to reduce variance, particular putting oneself into situations like set over set.

Once in that situation, most will seek to reduce the variance.

But I, unlike you, could be wrong.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
All this other discussion is useless, to answer your question you had it right here:

Is the point, then, that there is no way on God's green Earth that Baxter would be dumb enough to run it twice, and he was just resigned to it getting run just once?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is it dumb for Baxter to run it twice?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All this other discussion is useless, to answer your question you had it right here:

Is the point, then, that there is no way on God's green Earth that Baxter would be dumb enough to run it twice, and he was just resigned to it getting run just once?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is it dumb for Baxter to run it twice?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based upon the responses in this thread, I suppose this seems to be a pretty good question.

My answer, for what it's worth, would be because his thought process would need to be as follows:

"Well, there is a 43/44ths likelihood of my winning this pot, but that still allows for the possibility of losing. Therefore, I will eliminate the possibility of losing the entire pot, while more than doubling my opponent's likelihood of gaining a split pot."

This seems like a virtually impossible conversation for a winning player to have with himself.

But again--I am beginning to believe I might be wrong, based upon the reactions here.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

lol @ the morans wondering why Eli didn't request to run it twice when the hands were shown, and why Baxter wouldn't want to.

Running it twice is done in situations where it is in both parties' interests to reduce variance. Situations like a set v an OESD, bottom two against TPGK, flush draw against TPTK, ect. This is because when pros sit down to play, in a game they feel they have an edge in, they often don't want to needlessly flip when they feel they have can carve out smaller pots or get it all in with a much better equity. This is especially true when playing with 1 or 2 bullets.

Aside from being completely dead on the flop, Baxter had Elezra in as good as position and anyone can hope to be when the money goes in. Why would he want to reduce variance? He is like 95% to win the hand. Elezra on the other hand is pretty much dead. Yeah, I guess you could say there's no reason why Baxter shouldn't want to run it twice, which pretty much hedges against any chance of losing. But at the same time, why give Elezra double the chance to split a pretty big pot? And it wasn't Baxter that refused running it twice anyway. Elezra is a gambler, and unless he was up against a live draw, there's no reason to ask to run it twice and chase a pretty futile dream of chopping, anyway.

If you nits are so scared of getting your money in on the flop as a 95% favourite, why are you playing in the first place?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

From the EV perspective, it doesn't matter a single bit.

For well bankrolled pros, it shouldn't matter at all.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

lol this is just ridiculous...

the EV stays the same and the variance doesn't mean much here...

Weee he'll split the pot 4% of times or win it all 2% of the time...

Big mother censored deal


What makes you say "what the [censored]" in your original post?

I reiterate my first reply...

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh my God. Has this thread really gone on this long without someone pointing out that running it once, twice, 25 times makes no difference in terms of EV?

For shame 2+2.

It sounds like the guy right above me eluded to that point but lets be clear: No matter how many times you run a poker hand, any hand, your EV remains the same while your variance decreases.

If they run it twice the underset hits the one outter twice as often, yes. But he also wins half the money as he is 100% guaranteed to lose 1/2 the pot everytime he manages to suck out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you, this thread was tilting me hard. Gotta love TV forum.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

How does op have 4k posts? This is ridic, ... once, twice, DOESN'T MATTER you know when you use MAFF. 2+2, that stuff.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

@op:
elezra doesnt decide to run it ones. He just assumes correctly that baxter (who isnt drawing like elezra first thought), doesnt want to run it twice.
running it twice is done to lower variance in close all-in situations (60-40, 50-50, maybe sometimes 70-30). in this spot it doesnt make any sence for baxter to run it twice and elezra simply points out to that obvious fact.

how could this thread become 2 pages long?

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
@op:
elezra doesnt decide to run it ones. He just assumes correctly that baxter (who isnt drawing like elezra first thought), doesnt want to run it twice.
running it twice is done to lower variance in close all-in situations (60-40, 50-50, maybe sometimes 70-30). in this spot it doesnt make any sence for baxter to run it twice and elezra simply points out to that obvious fact.

how could this thread become 2 pages long?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't even right... Eli just knows that he is such a long shot that he might as well just try to suck out once, and running it twice is just a waste of time.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol @ the morans wondering why Eli didn't request to run it twice when the hands were shown, and why Baxter wouldn't want to.

Running it twice is done in situations where it is in both parties' interests to reduce variance. Situations like a set v an OESD, bottom two against TPGK, flush draw against TPTK, ect. This is because when pros sit down to play, in a game they feel they have an edge in, they often don't want to needlessly flip when they feel they have can carve out smaller pots or get it all in with a much better equity. This is especially true when playing with 1 or 2 bullets.

Aside from being completely dead on the flop, Baxter had Elezra in as good as position and anyone can hope to be when the money goes in. Why would he want to reduce variance? He is like 95% to win the hand. Elezra on the other hand is pretty much dead. Yeah, I guess you could say there's no reason why Baxter shouldn't want to run it twice, which pretty much hedges against any chance of losing. But at the same time, why give Elezra double the chance to split a pretty big pot? And it wasn't Baxter that refused running it twice anyway. Elezra is a gambler, and unless he was up against a live draw, there's no reason to ask to run it twice and chase a pretty futile dream of chopping, anyway.

If you nits are so scared of getting your money in on the flop as a 95% favourite, why are you playing in the first place?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's usually a good idea to not call people morons, especially when you're about to say something moronic yourself. It's also a good idea to pay attention to the question, so that you don't preach an answer to something no one asked.

Running it twice always reduces your variance without changing your EV, whether you're flipping a coin with a combo draw on the flop, or have someone drawing to one out on the turn. It's never a bad idea to choose an option with lower variance when you're ahead, if your EV is not affected.

The original question I posed was why it's a bad idea for Baxter to agree to run it twice. The answer is that it's not a bad idea, the math is in favor of running it as many times as possible, up to the whole remaining deck. If he wants to take extra risk for no reward, that's his decision, but the smart thing to do is to always reduce variance for the given EV.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

It's not a big deal...Eli asked before Baxter turned over his set. Eli is just a fun guy who likes to run it twice, we've seen this a lot from him on HSP like Farha, thinking Baxter had some kind of draw or two pair, but when he realized he had one out, he was like f it deal the river.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
@op:
elezra doesnt decide to run it ones. He just assumes correctly that baxter (who isnt drawing like elezra first thought), doesnt want to run it twice.
running it twice is done to lower variance in close all-in situations (60-40, 50-50, maybe sometimes 70-30). in this spot it doesnt make any sence for baxter to run it twice and elezra simply points out to that obvious fact.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you seem to think so, and I seem to think so, and there are a handful of others who seem to think so, but those who do NOT think so seem to believe that we'd have to be imbeciles to believe such a thing.

Again, it's typical. Ask a question to the ballers here in the TV forum, and they push aside all their, uh, bling, and look to excoriate and ridicule.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

I think that the players usually agree on running it twice before they show their cards.
In this case... Baxter didn`t respond to Elezra`s question before the showdown and just flipped his cards over after which Elezra probably correctly assumed that Baxter is not willing to do it with so strong of a hand so no point in pushing the issue no? [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

it's pointless having this circular arguement but it still seems to me that Eli was simply saying "oh well either ill hit my 2 outer or I won't."

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that the players usually agree on running it twice before they show their cards.
In this case... Baxter didn`t respond to Elezra`s question before the showdown and just flipped his cards over after which Elezra probably correctly assumed that Baxter is not willing to do it with so strong of a hand so no point in pushing the issue no? [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my assumption as well, but now I am second-guessing it. The naysayers have responded with such hostility and aggression that I can only assume we must be thinking wrong.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That was my assumption as well, but now I am second-guessing it. The naysayers have responded with such hostility and aggression that I can only assume we must be thinking wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe you should have made your point clear in the original post.
As someone else pointed out, I still don't have a clue what your "what the [censored]" is directed at.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That was my assumption as well, but now I am second-guessing it. The naysayers have responded with such hostility and aggression that I can only assume we must be thinking wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe you should have made your point clear in the original post.
As someone else pointed out, I still don't have a clue what your "what the [censored]" is directed at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you're right about this.

In my OP, I was commenting on the fact that it seemed to me that it was Elezra who had made the decision, which I considered an odd one.

I have since come to realize that

a.) It was arguably not Elezra who decided it, and
b.) Even it had been, it is not a definitively "odd decision."

I apologize for any ambiguity.

Re: Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?
 

[ QUOTE ]
run twice: elezra wins half pot rarely, loses whole pot most the time, wins whole pot extremely rarely

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm, never?

I don't think Elezra is going to make quads twice. DUCY?