Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here. [/ QUOTE ] It's likely not as square as you think, but yes, there is a decent pro-Yankee bias in most lines, so if you already like their opponent in a game, you are usually getting a few extra cents on your line. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
iggy,
You're not really looking at predictive stats. All of those are things that happened. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Looking at the starting pitchers' ERA = bad strategy for weighing your chances in a sports bet !??
Lol @ that. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Well, Carmona has a better WHIP and K/BB than Pettitte too. I was looking more for where the line was coming from when listing the earlier stats. I guess the Yanks do have a better run differential than the Indians do, but still. It doesn't seem like anywhere near enough for them to be favored on the road.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Carmona's xFIP is about half a run better then Pettite's... and that doesn't even properly reward him for his sick GB%.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
[ QUOTE ]
no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason. [/ QUOTE ] no doubt statistics are useless against the yankees |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
That's only if your sample size on Carmona (and Pettitte) is restricted to this season, though. If you regress to the mean using PECOTA or something like that, then they're similar.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Solid analysis guys.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Yes, there is a huge pro-Yankee bias. See CBB, Duke for details.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
I'm having trouble searching for threads on the value (or lack thereof) in -1.5 lines. Anyone have a link or a short (not one sentence) summary of why no one bets them.
fwiw I have yankees -1.5 and red sox -1.5 parlayed because the odds looked good (and yes I mean look lol I did zero analysis) |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Little late, but correct line was Cleveland -112 so yeah.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
[ QUOTE ]
Carmona's xFIP is about half a run better then Pettite's... and that doesn't even properly reward him for his sick GB%. [/ QUOTE ] yes it does. do you really think wang's xFIP is in the low-4's on the strength of his strikeout rate? |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
uhh the yankees just find a way to win and you cant put a price on that.
seriously this line was a total joke, I have way too much money right now on Indians +120 and +1.5 -140. Fair line probably Yankees -105 or even money. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Carmona's xFIP is about half a run better then Pettite's... and that doesn't even properly reward him for his sick GB%. [/ QUOTE ] yes it does. do you really think wang's xFIP is in the low-4's on the strength of his strikeout rate? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I wasn't thinking... it penalizes extreme FB pitchers, not GB ones. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
this game is [censored] stupid
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
[ QUOTE ]
this game is [censored] stupid [/ QUOTE ] Tell me about it. How many frigging runners can the Indians strand in scoring position? Maybe I should have bet the "Yankees are supernatural" side. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Stranding runners happens but really, what are the odds you have 3 leadoff singles, 1 leadoff double, 1 leadoff triple and score 0 runs...
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Probably the greatest unintentional product placement add ever with the Off bugspray
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
This game is awesome, but c'mon Peralta, one time!!
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
bottom of 11th 2nd and 3rd one out
If they don't score here I'm going to be sick. |
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
boom baby.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Cleveland rocks!
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
Wow. Glad I bet Cleveland tonight, just because otherwise I would have had no reason to watch this game and it was a classic. Great finish to see the Indians finally get one across with a hit.
|
Re: Cleveland +118: Are MLB playoff lines really this square?
3-0 in the playoffs feels very nice.
Go Tribe! |
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:39 AM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.