A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($16.90)
UTG ($31)
MP ($25.45)
CO ($23.05)
Hero ($24.65)
SB ($32.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $1.8</font>, Hero calls $1.80.

Turn: ($5.95) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $3.9</font>

Ok, here is the deal.
If I KNOW he has either AK, set or middle PP which he is bluffing with here. Also I think this player is confident and aggressive enough to fire a third barrel.
Can I ever justify just calling the turn?

Reasoning: If he has a set or AK the money is going in on the turn and he will be a dog. If I just call knowing his hand I know the money will go in on the river either way. But if the river brings another A or K I can just call and get away cheap if he has me, and take the pot if he was bluffing w/ a mid PP.

I know raising here is STD but if you have my exact reads here, can you justify a call?

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

No !!
If you know he has AK, AQ, AA, QQ or 44 and you know the money goes in on the turn you gotta do it now. So what if you lose 10-20% of the time. I think you lose a lot of value if a J, 10 or diamond hits the river and kills your action.
If he just has a mid pair you have already gotten everything you are gonna get unless he is a complete moran and will bet 55-JJ on the river again.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

I do think raising is the best option here, but please read what I said. IF i KNOW he has AK or a set (no AQ) and I think he WILL fire a 3rd barrel w/ 55-JJ CAN I justify a call?

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

You're not going to get money out of the bluffing person, even on the river. So waiting does not benefit us there.
You're not going to get the person with a set or AK to be more willing to put their money in, without a card that beats you (i.e. pairing board), so there is no good card to come for us on the river.

On the river in fact there isn't a single card that can improve the situation for us, only make it worse. Get you're money in now, its the best situation you've got.

By your logic of getting away cheap we should never get our money in with the nuts on the flop just check it down in case a flush comes 'so if it does you can get away cheap'.

Protect your hand.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

I know this, but you are both ignoring the fact that I said IF: my read is so that I think he WILL fire a 3d barrel here, CAN I justify a call?

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to get money out of the bluffing person, even on the river. So waiting does not benefit us there.
You're not going to get the person with a set or AK to be more willing to put their money in, without a card that beats you (i.e. pairing board), so there is no good card to come for us on the river.

On the river in fact there isn't a single card that can improve the situation for us, only make it worse. Get you're money in now, its the best situation you've got.

By your logic of getting away cheap we should never get our money in with the nuts on the flop just check it down in case a flush comes 'so if it does you can get away cheap'.

Protect your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So not what I am trying to say at all. A flush draw would never pay of if it does not hit, obv I bet if I think he has a flush draw, but that was not the case. I am not saying this is a real hand, I am just trying to figure out a situation where I can justify a call on the turn w/ this straight here.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are in my thinking here, this PLUS the fact that if he is bluffing I can get some more.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

Ok - lets look a little more in depth.

We estimate they have a set 33%, AK 33%, and bluffing 33%, fair enough?

We have one card to go, and we're weight up calling / raising.

No card can come and improve our hand. The following cards put us to a tough decision on the river, or beat us. Any A, any K, any Q, any 4. The following cards probably kill our action, any J, any T. Thats 18 cards that can come which we will not like, or beat us. Thats ~40% of the time we won't see a card we like. ~26% of the time it beats us, ~14% it kills our action. Let say for arguments sake he isn't going to bluff into a 4 card straight, and just give up, if its a blank he'll bluff.

The pot is currently is $9.85, lets say you call.

Pot becomes $13.75. River comes...

If its a blank (happens ~ 61%) He fires out a 2/3 of pot bet ($9). Lets say you shove then. 66% of the time he will call your shove (AK / Set), 33% of the time he will fold (bluff.) EV is 33% = $22.75, 66% = $49.5, so on average we get $40.

If its an action killer (6/46 ~ 13%)- He checks, we do a pot sized bet, he calls lets say because its so scary, 50% / 50% (which I think is a stretch, but). 50% we get a pot of $27.5, 50% we get a pot of $13.75, on average we get a pot of $20.60

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4

Board pairs (non A/K) (6/46 ~ 13%)
Same assumptions. Leads out for $9, you shove. He calls lets say with 50% of the time with AK thinking its still good . Thats 33% call for a loss of $49.5, its a call 13.5% with AK for a gain of $49.5, and a fold 46.5% for a gain of $22.75, on average - $0.92 in the black.

What it means
61% we make $40, 13% we make $20.60, 13% we loose $25.40, 13% we make $0.92 - Our EV for calling is $23.88

Now shoving
Lets say he will call with AK and set, fold middle pair. In all cases (unless folds), pot will be $49.5

AK 33%
On average make $36.65

Set 33%
On average make $27.72

Fold 33%
Will make $9.85

We will make on average $24.75 from shoving.

We will make more on average from shoving then calling ($24.75 vs $23.88). I also think some of the calling numbers are a bit generous on the river. Probably a bigger difference.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were as you describe (villain shows you his cards and announces he will open-push any river if you call turn), then calling the turn would be by far the best play.

Edit: Well, except for if he might be lying about that open push . . .

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4


[/ QUOTE ]

If you have him on AK, set or bluff, pushing an A or King river is absolutely terrible. You should only call.

Generally I think you should be raising here. The odds of him actually firing 3 barrels is low and you have no reason NOT to push the turn before a scare card hurts your action.

yes you can justify a call, but that doesn't mean its good.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

All right, I started a post and then abandoned it because, near completion, I realized I had made a fundamental mistake in the math. Hopefully I won't this time. But I am going to do a fair amount of rounding off.

Here's a scenario.

Let's say the pot will have $14 in it after our turn call, and there will be $18 effective stacks left behind.

Villain will have a set 40 percent. He'll never fold a set. However, he will check-call our $9 river bet on a J or T. If we raise the turn, he'll push. If the board pairs on the river, we'll just call his river bet.

Villain will have AK 40 percent and will play it the same way as the sets.

Villain will have JJ-55 20 percent. If we raise the turn, he'll fold immediately. If we call, he'll fire a third barrel on the river half of the time UI. If he makes a set on the river, he'll stack off. Occasionlly, he'll make a straight with his JJ or TT and we'll chop, but this will happen rarely enough that I'll basically ignore it, compensating by only giving him 1.5 set "out" on average instead of 1.7.

All right, if we call the turn, we win $25 on the hand versus his sets 28/44 of the time.

We win $16 versus his sets 6/44 of the time.

We lose $25 versus his sets 10/44 of the time.

We win $25 versus AK 28/44 of the time. (He's check-calling J's and T's, and we're just calling Q's and 4's.)

We win $16 versus AK 12/44 of the time.

We lose $16 versus AK 4/44 of the time.

10.63/22 of the time, we win $7 versus JJ-55.

10.63/22 of the time, we win $16 versus JJ-55.

0.75/22 of the time, we win $25 versus JJ-55.

This works out to about $14.88 that we're winning on average on the overall hand after calling the turn.


If we raise, we'll win $25 34/44 of the time versus sets, and we'll lose $25 10/44 of the time.

We'll win $25 40/44 of the time versus AK and lose $25 4/44.

We'll always (22/22) win $7 versus the JJ-55 bluffs.

This works out to about $14.43 on average for a turn raise.


So, in this scenario, it's close. The main reasons that just calling is slightly better are that Villain will 3-barrel bluff the river (and bluff big) with fairly high frequency and also that we have a very good idea what cards we should be scared of on the river. Also, he's a player that won't let our turn call bother him even though a straight is now possible.

But it's just one scenario. And there is some chance I did the math wrong [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Still, I suspect the turn decision is in fact close. The main reason I favor a raise is that I'm sick of watching the instinctive and habitual slowplaying that goes on at NL25 and don't want to imitate my opponents without a good excuse [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

um, i didnt read all of that stuff, but you have the nuts, on an action board, against an opponent that's trying to get money in. just raise.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

Good thinking Nick, that's pretty much what I wanted to see here. In practice, something close to what I described came up in a real hand and then I started discussing the hand w/ a friend of mine. Then we got into the scenario if we KNEW the opponents range so bad that we could ever justify a call here.

So a raise is obv the best choice here, I have the nuts and I want to get the money in vs his 2p / set.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]
So a raise is obv the best choice here, I have the nuts and I want to get the money in vs his 2p / set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's obviously the best play if Villain is bluffing or bet-folding a fair amount of the time but might 3-barrel big if just called.

However, how often do people really 3-barrel into AKQ with just an underpair? It is kind of rare, isn't it?

Also, if somehow you knew that Villain had exactly AA-QQ and would be willing to play for stacks no matter what, the obvious play would be to call and then fold any board-pairing river. But that last situation is quite hypothetical.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

yeah. I think we are on the same track. Case closed.

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok - lets look a little more in depth.

We estimate they have a set 33%, AK 33%, and bluffing 33%, fair enough?

We have one card to go, and we're weight up calling / raising.

No card can come and improve our hand. The following cards put us to a tough decision on the river, or beat us. Any A, any K, any Q, any 4. The following cards probably kill our action, any J, any T. Thats 18 cards that can come which we will not like, or beat us. Thats ~40% of the time we won't see a card we like. ~26% of the time it beats us, ~14% it kills our action. Let say for arguments sake he isn't going to bluff into a 4 card straight, and just give up, if its a blank he'll bluff.

The pot is currently is $9.85, lets say you call.

Pot becomes $13.75. River comes...

If its a blank (happens ~ 61%) He fires out a 2/3 of pot bet ($9). Lets say you shove then. 66% of the time he will call your shove (AK / Set), 33% of the time he will fold (bluff.) EV is 33% = $22.75, 66% = $49.5, so on average we get $40.

If its an action killer (6/46 ~ 13%)- He checks, we do a pot sized bet, he calls lets say because its so scary, 50% / 50% (which I think is a stretch, but). 50% we get a pot of $27.5, 50% we get a pot of $13.75, on average we get a pot of $20.60

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4

Board pairs (non A/K) (6/46 ~ 13%)
Same assumptions. Leads out for $9, you shove. He calls lets say with 50% of the time with AK thinking its still good . Thats 33% call for a loss of $49.5, its a call 13.5% with AK for a gain of $49.5, and a fold 46.5% for a gain of $22.75, on average - $0.92 in the black.

What it means
61% we make $40, 13% we make $20.60, 13% we loose $25.40, 13% we make $0.92 - Our EV for calling is $23.88

Now shoving
Lets say he will call with AK and set, fold middle pair. In all cases (unless folds), pot will be $49.5

AK 33%
On average make $36.65

Set 33%
On average make $27.72

Fold 33%
Will make $9.85

We will make on average $24.75 from shoving.

We will make more on average from shoving then calling ($24.75 vs $23.88). I also think some of the calling numbers are a bit generous on the river. Probably a bigger difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wicked post!

Thanks heaps!

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 

Nick C, I would really like to say you owned this thread

That is all