Two Plus Two Newer Archives

Two Plus Two Newer Archives (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/index.php)
-   Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=56)
-   -   I'm 0/16 AIPF for October (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=515504)

igetjokes 10-04-2007 11:15 AM
I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

Wilpro 10-04-2007 11:20 AM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
All in preflop, you either win or you lose, so 50/50.

(0.5)^16 = 0.0000076...
or 1 in 130k. Lets say theres 1 million atvie online poker players atm (conservative) So theres you and 7 or 8 others out there, going through this.

igetjokes 10-04-2007 11:26 AM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
They obviously won't mind if I take them with me.

BigBiceps 10-04-2007 11:35 AM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Almost no chance ...

I am 0/11 on my last allins at FTP.

Not as big as favorites as yours, but equally ridiculous that every draw I miss, and every set loses to a rivered straight or overset.

Something changed on October 1st ... but everyone dismissed my thread as a joke.

RandomUser 10-04-2007 01:00 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

Enervate 10-04-2007 01:03 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
What are the odds of someone hitting a 900/1 shot 5 times on the trot?

Andynan 10-04-2007 01:19 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last lines dont diminish the chance, they actually make it go even higher, even if he was a dog in those, he stood a chance to win once, and the fact that he didnt, wether a fav or a dog to win makes it more unprobable.

Tony Eusebio 10-04-2007 01:38 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
don't go broke with one pair

SinkRox 10-04-2007 03:20 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
How many hands have you played already?

Marlow 10-04-2007 03:29 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
They obviously won't mind if I take them with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't want to minimize your pain, but you should know that at least for today you are +EV in funny, because I almost sent my afternoon tea through my nose when reading this

Nielsio 10-04-2007 03:34 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They obviously won't mind if I take them with me.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't want to minimize your pain, but you should know that at least for today you are +EV in funny, because I almost sent my afternoon tea through my nose when reading this

[/ QUOTE ]

holdme 10-04-2007 03:36 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
hey guys is ftp rigged

highsteptd 10-04-2007 03:43 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last lines dont diminish the chance, they actually make it go even higher, even if he was a dog in those, he stood a chance to win once, and the fact that he didnt, wether a fav or a dog to win makes it more unprobable.

[/ QUOTE ]

pls tell me you're leveling

RAHZero 10-04-2007 03:43 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
AA < KK - Probability = 0.18054
AA < TT - 0.19251
AA < 88 - 0.19538
KK < AK x4 - 0.31116 each
KK < KJo - 0.09135
QQ < JJ x2 - 0.18034 each
QQ < TT - 0.18433
AK < KK x3 - 0.68884 each
AK < QQ x 2 - 0.56056 each

Total probability = 0.00000007464 which is about 1 in 13,400,000.

RAHZero 10-04-2007 03:44 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last lines dont diminish the chance, they actually make it go even higher, even if he was a dog in those, he stood a chance to win once, and the fact that he didnt, wether a fav or a dog to win makes it more unprobable.

[/ QUOTE ]

pls tell me you're leveling

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, do you understand the laws of probability?

goofyballer 10-04-2007 03:44 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Ballparking the equities:

overpair < smaller pair 6 times = 0.19^6
* KK < AK 4 times = 0.3^4
* KK < KJ = 0.08
* AK < KK 3 times = 0.7^3
* AK < QQ 2 times = 0.55^2

= 1 / 316,143,232.

EDIT: lol, using RAH's numbers which aren't even that diff from mine I get 1 / 50,368,867 which is still 4x more than his figure of 13.4 mil. I hate decimals.

EDIT 2: Serious lol, every single time I multiply up RAH's numbers I get different answers. I fail at Windows Calculator.

Copying and pasting this:

[ QUOTE ]
.18054 * .19251 * .19538 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .09135 * .18034 * .18034 * .18433 * .68884 * .56056

[/ QUOTE ]

into Calculator gets me .00000001346 which is 1 in 74,294,205.

My #s are

[ QUOTE ]
.19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .3 * .3 * .3 * .3 * .08 * .7 * .7 * .7 * .55 * .55

[/ QUOTE ]

Which are very close approximations to RAH's #s but still get 0.00000000316, which is 1 in 316,143,232. So, I guess the lesson is that using approximations when multiplying lots of decimals together will radically affect results?

Also, since the equities change by small percents (which, as seen above, will affect the final number drastically) depending on suits, we need more details OP. gogogo!

EDIT 3: Wait lol I forgot three numbers of RAH's

[ QUOTE ]
.18054 * .19251 * .19538 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .09135 * .18034 * .18034 * .18433 * .68884 * .68884 * .68884 * .56056 * .56056

[/ QUOTE ]

= 1 in 279,299,477

Mike Kelley 10-04-2007 03:57 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
pointer math is awesome.

goofyballer 10-04-2007 03:57 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

Ender Wiggin 10-04-2007 04:00 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of this happening are 100%, DUCY?

Mike Kelley 10-04-2007 04:29 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

What is pointer math?

Daddy Warbucks 10-04-2007 04:34 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

What is pointer math?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't ask that.

rothko 10-04-2007 04:35 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
y'all aren't going to believe this, but just yesterday my pocket rockets lost to kaptain kangaroo aipf. fur realz and stuff.

Mike Kelley 10-04-2007 04:41 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

What is pointer math?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't ask that.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 late.

Enervate 10-04-2007 04:44 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[x] thread ruined by nerds

Hattifnatt 10-04-2007 04:44 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
the chance is 50%, either you lose all of them or you win at least one.

Mike Kelley 10-04-2007 04:50 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[x] thread ruined by nerds

[/ QUOTE ]

[ ] Thread had potential.

VickreyAuction 10-04-2007 04:56 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Oh man, I was going to do all that math out until I saw that 4 other people already did.

goofyballer 10-04-2007 05:04 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

What is pointer math?

[/ QUOTE ]

Please don't ask that.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 late.

[/ QUOTE ]

Performing mathematical operations on a pointer to a location in memory to obtain a new location in memory. Example:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
int myArray[ROWS][COLS];
int *ptrInt;
int intOffset;

ptrInt = &amp;myArray[0][0];

for (intOffset = 0; intOffset &lt; ROWS * COLS; intOffset++) {
*(ptrInt + intOffset) = intOffset;
}
</pre><hr />

The code inside the for loop takes the "ptrInt" pointer, which points to the start of "myArray" in memory, and adds a variable offset to it to get the memory address of one of the elements in myArray. It can then use this new memory address however it sees fit.

Mike Kelley 10-04-2007 05:08 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Thank you.

grando 10-04-2007 05:29 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
are you the guy who fails at getting girls?

yli 10-04-2007 05:33 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
are you the guy who fails at getting girls?

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.alt1040.com/uploads/bill-gates-1983.jpg

pr1me 10-04-2007 06:04 PM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
All in preflop, you either win or you lose, so 50/50.

(0.5)^16 = 0.0000076...
or 1 in 130k. Lets say theres 1 million atvie online poker players atm (conservative) So theres you and 7 or 8 others out there, going through this.

[/ QUOTE ]

slight error in your math here. actually it s

0.5 * 16 = 8.

so the odds are 8. maybe even 10.

igetjokes 10-05-2007 02:01 AM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
Edit:

0/17

QQ &lt; AK

Pete H 10-05-2007 02:36 AM
Re: I\'m 0/16 AIPF for October
 
[ QUOTE ]
are you the guy who fails at getting girls?

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.bgassociates.com/images/GMDC%20TOUCHE.jpg


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:08 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.