PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Dear loyal readers,

I was on vacation this week and I've been busy since I got back last night, so I haven't really had time to come up with some thoughtful comments for all the teams. Plus I didn't see any games this week besides the Eagles-Giants abomination.

I figured I would post what I have so we can have some NFC discussion, and as I watch the games I have taped on DVR, I'll post more team comments later in the week.

Next week we'll be back to normal.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are PROJECTIVE, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

<font color="Blue"> 1. DALLAS (4-0) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: The Patrick Crayton 2007 Fantasy Sleeper Bandwagon finally started its engines this week, as talented receiver snagged 7 balls for 184 yards and a pair of scores. That Week 6 matchup with New England is looking more enticing by the minute. NEXT: @ Buffalo.

<font color="Blue"> 2. GREEN BAY (4-0) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Congrats to Favre for breaking Marino's touchdown record, which he will enjoy for a few more years before Manning destroys it. In the preseason, I said that Favre was returning to not only break the records but return to the playoffs - so far, so good. NEXT: vs. Chicago.

<font color="Blue"> 3. SEATTLE (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: NEXT: @ Pittsburgh.

<font color="Blue"> 4. TAMPA BAY (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: NEXT: @ Indianapolis.

<font color="Blue"> 5. ARIZONA (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 5* </font>: Conventional wisdom at the start of the season was that San Francisco was the NFC West team ready to make the leap and challenge Seattle, not Arizona. But despite a narrow opening week loss to the Niners, the Cards have been by far the superior team. The rest of the season sets up great for Arizona - their remaining schedule is absurdly easy. The bad news is that catching Seattle will be difficult because the Seahawks own the the league's easiest remaining schedule. NEXT: @ St. Louis.

<font color="Blue"> 6. WASHINGTON (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Who would have thought that a Week 5 match-up between the Skins and Lions would have huge wildcard implications? In Jason Campbell and Santana Moss, Washington has the personnel to copy half of Philadelphia's gameplan against Detroit: max-protect, play action, throw it deep. Unfortunately, Washington has no copy for the other half: give to Brian Westbrook and let him do the rest. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

<font color="Blue"> 7. DETROIT (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 4* </font>: NEXT: @ Washington.

<font color="Blue"> 8. NEW YORK (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 4* </font>: NEXT: vs. New York Jets.

<font color="Blue"> 9. PHILADELPHIA (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 2* </font>: No Brian Dawkins? No problem, as Quintin Mikell has played outstanding in relief. No Lito Sheppard? No problem, as William James has played well. No LJ Smith? No problem with rookie Brent Celek. No Brian Westbrook? No problem, Buckhalter can carry the load. No Tra Thomas? BIG, BIG problems. William Justice put forth the worst performance by an offensive lineman I have ever seen, getting absolutely eviscerated by Osi Umenyiora. Blame should fall on Reid for leaving Justice alone on Osi over and over again with miserable results. The Birds have two weeks to get healthy and remove their collective head from their collective ass to save the season. NEXT: Bye.

<font color="Blue"> 10. CAROLINA (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: Aaron Schatz, summing up exactly how I have felt about Carolina for several years now: "At a certain point, the public will come around to the point of view that I have, and that I think Mike (Tanier) you have too, which is 'I'm sick and tired of waiting for Carolina to fulfill their potential, (and) maybe other than Peppers and Smith they really aren’t that good'" NEXT: @ New Orleans.

<font color="Blue"> 11. SAN FRANCISCO (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 3* </font>: NEXT: vs. Baltimore.

<font color="Blue"> 12. MINNESOTA (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 1* </font>: NEXT: Bye.

<font color="Blue"> 13. CHICAGO (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 8* </font>: NEXT: @ Green Bay.

<font color="Blue"> 14. ATLANTA (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 2* </font>: NEXT: @ Tennessee.

<font color="Blue"> 15. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: NEXT: vs. Carolina.

<font color="Blue"> 16. ST. LOUIS (0-4) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: NEXT: vs. Arizona.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

God what a mess it is after the top 4. Can't really disagree with anything. I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

[ QUOTE ]
Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Some random thoughts:

The fan in me has some hope for the Bears this week as the wounded animal heading into a Green bay team that is flying high. However, the Packers are throwing the ball well and the Bears secondary is in sweat suits on the sideline and they are going to have to sign some guys off of the street just to have enough warm bodies to run a nickle.

Seattle had a big win this week. They were saved by Alex Smith going down and Trent Dilfer looking like he retired in 2005 and just figured he could pick up a pay check for a few years before anyone noticed.

Don't be so sure the Cardinals schedule finishes easy. Games @ Washington, @Tampa, @ Cincinatti (though who knows what Bengals team they will see) @ Seattle. Plus the Lions &amp; Browns coming to town aren't right in the win column.

The Redskins/Lions will be interesting this week. What team will show up for the Redskins? Is Portis healthy? Would they be better off with a back like Betts against the Lions anyway? Will the Lions come out throwing the ball or will they look like they did for the first three quarters against the Bears second string defense? I think if it becomes a shootout it favors the Lions. If the Skins can get some turnovers and keep the score down they win.

I think the Eagles really missed Westbrook last week. They couldn't slow down the pass rush at all and screens to Westbrook would have at least made the Giants have to do something besides just run straight @ McNabb. They have not hit the defcon five that the Bears have injury wise, but they are getting close. Your right on a good bye timing.

Carolina is going nowhere without Delhomme. David Carr is not the answer and if Jake is hurt as bad as it seems I'm off of the Carolina bandwagon.

I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with Trent Dilfer. Was he just rusty or is he really just past his time of being an effective quarterback? That answer will be the begining or end of the 49ers season.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

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I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

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If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

[ QUOTE ]
Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most shocking line of Week 5...

GB -3 v. Chicago

What??????

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who would have thought that a Week 5 match-up between the Skins and Lions would have huge wildcard implications? In Jason Campbell and Santana Moss, Washington has the personnel to copy half of Philadelphia's gameplan against Detroit: max-protect, play action, throw it deep. Unfortunately, Washington has no copy for the other half: give to Brian Westbrook and let him do the rest. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like Santana Moss will be out this week w/ a groin injury. Clinton Portis should play despite his knee sprain.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.


[/ QUOTE ]


no one could figure out why TB was ranked highly and everyone thought it was cause they were good a couple of years ago and then someone (Assani I think) called the computers worthless for ranking TB that highly.


good times.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

To be fair, even the DVOA guys were like "wtf?"

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Jeff Garcia is one hell of a WCO guy I guess.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

More evidence of Romo greatness - single handedly defying the oracles.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

My rankings:

Seahawks 1.738
Packers 1.696
Cowboys 1.539
Giants 1.484
Bucs 1.404
Cardinals 1.334
Eagles 1.284
Vikins 1.223
Redskins 0.854
Lions 0.839
Panthers 0.764
Falcons 0.727
Bears 0.611
49ers 0.605
Saints 0.511
Rams 0.360


Eagles too high and Lions too low due to a possible fluke of a game that skewed the numbers a bit.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

I'm still not sold on my Packers after the Eagles and Chargers displayed utter incompetence last week. I think the true measure of how good this team can be is still a ways ahead (the game in Dallas).

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still not sold on my Packers after the Eagles and Chargers displayed utter incompetence last week. I think the true measure of how good this team can be is still a ways ahead (the game in Dallas).

[/ QUOTE ]If they have five or six more wins by then and they get killed by the Cowboys, it doesn't matter, they still will have a first round bye.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

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Don't be so sure the Cardinals schedule finishes easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you don't get to play the Rams every week of the season, but the Cards still have them twice. And the Saints. And the Niners. That's a whole lot of bad right there.

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The Redskins/Lions will be interesting this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

What odds could I have gotten at the beginning of the season Skins/Lions would be game of the week? 100-1? 500-1?

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I think the Eagles really missed Westbrook last week. They couldn't slow down the pass rush at all and screens to Westbrook

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Agreed - this is really the only way Westbrook would have been better than Buck, since Buck did run the ball very well. They tried to run a couple screens with Buck but weren't too successful.

Westbrook is better in blitz pickup too, but I don't think that would have helped much since Andy wasn't really keeping in a back to block.

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They have not hit the defcon five that the Bears have injury wise, but they are getting close.

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Well on the good side, mostly everyone is week-to-week. Lito, Dawk and Westbrook should all be back for the next game. I don't know about Tra, and to make matters on the O-Line worse, starting LG Herremans just had surgery and he's questionable for hte next game too. But it's possible they will both be back by the next game. LJ Smith is the injury that doesn't worry me at all.

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Carolina is going nowhere without Delhomme. David Carr is not the answer

[/ QUOTE ]

Neither is Delhomme.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]


Most shocking line of Week 5...

GB -3 v. Chicago

What??????

[/ QUOTE ]

OMFG. And I was in the [censored] Bellagio last night and never went into the sports book. WTF. I hope that line doesn't move before tonight.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

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I'm still not sold on my Packers after the Eagles and Chargers displayed utter incompetence last week. I think the true measure of how good this team can be is still a ways ahead (the game in Dallas).

[/ QUOTE ]

Green Bay isn't anywhere near as good as Dallas. According to DVOA they're not even as good as Tampa. Or Seattle.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Kyro,

Do your rankings include margin of victory?

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seattle had a big win this week. They were saved by Alex Smith going down and Trent Dilfer looking like he retired in 2005 and just figured he could pick up a pay check for a few years before anyone noticed.

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Uh Alex Smith is bad, and I doubt he would have done signifigantly better than Dilfer. Smith had 6 turnovers in the first four games and in his first series of the the SEA game he got squished for a loss of 10 and went 0-1. Dilfer did about what Smith had averaged in the first four games while getting sacked/hit on every play. The SF offensive line was horrible and the Hawks have the ability to put a lot of pressure on the QB. They were not saved.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

I agree with this, and I'm a hardcore Niners fan. I actually initially thought brining in Dilfer might give the offense a little spark, but I guess he packed it in when he won the super bowl. The line play has been dreadful. Smith wasn't making plays to Davis and teh receivers, and teams are keying in on Gore. I'm absolutely sick about trading that pick away to the Pats now. I was cautiously optimistic about this season, didn't think the team was a lock for the WC like some did, but this level of play has been atrocious. This team should be 0-4 right now

Chargers, prs to be firing Norv Turner to let us have him back. Otherwise, please DIAGF.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Seattle had a big win this week. They were saved by Alex Smith going down and Trent Dilfer looking like he retired in 2005 and just figured he could pick up a pay check for a few years before anyone noticed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh Alex Smith is bad, and I doubt he would have done signifigantly better than Dilfer. Smith had 6 turnovers in the first four games and in his first series of the the SEA game he got squished for a loss of 10 and went 0-1. Dilfer did about what Smith had averaged in the first four games while getting sacked/hit on every play. The SF offensive line was horrible and the Hawks have the ability to put a lot of pressure on the QB. They were not saved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get he turned the ball over 6 times this year. He threw 1 pick this year for an INT against Pittsburgh and has had 0 fumbles all year.

Honestly I think he's regressed this year. It doesn't help that the o-line especially Larry Allen has been terrible so far. I don't think he's significantly better or worse than Dilfer right now I just think Seattle has played well and Dilfer hasn't taken a snap in years. Doesn't help that VD was out as well.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]


Where did you get he turned the ball over 6 times this year. He threw 1 pick this year for an INT against Pittsburgh and has had 0 fumbles all year.

Honestly I think he's regressed this year. It doesn't help that the o-line especially Larry Allen has been terrible so far. I don't think he's significantly better or worse than Dilfer right now I just think Seattle has played well and Dilfer hasn't taken a snap in years. Doesn't help that VD was out as well.

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The receivers are also terrible. Did you see the Jackson drop. It went through his hands. Neither hand touched the ball. Jackson lead the league in drops last year with 11. And he's the best SF receiver. Davis will never be a good as Eric Johnson.
With that line and those receivers Montana would look terrible.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Where did you get he turned the ball over 6 times this year. He threw 1 pick this year for an INT against Pittsburgh and has had 0 fumbles all year.


[/ QUOTE ] I guess I read the numbers off wrong, but he did lose a fumble in each of the first 2 games + had a pick in a third. As others have said he has no help so it's hard to tell if he sucks, but he certainly isn't performing at all.

http://www.nfl.com/players/alexsmith...e?id=SMI031126

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

[ QUOTE ]
Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

by favored, I mean that I personally think they'd be &gt;50% to win.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kyro,

Do your rankings include margin of victory?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty much. I expect numbers at both extremes to regress closer to 1.0, obviously. But with the exception of a team or two (Ravens in AFC, Eagles in NFC), I like how they came out.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Kyro,

I really can't figure out how your rankings work if they include MOV. Having anyone above Dallas is just plain silly.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Neither is Delhomme.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had two and 3/4 pretty good games before going down.

8 TDs 1 INT 64%

Granted all he basically does is throw to Steve Smith, but he has played well this year.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Kyro,

I really can't figure out how your rankings work if they include MOV. Having anyone above Dallas is just plain silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

MOV + SOS ldo

Plus a 20-10 victory is considered more impressive than a 45-35 victory, which may or may not be the case. I don't think my rankings are good or scientific, but I enjoyed calculating them and figured I'd post them in the respective threads.

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

[ QUOTE ]
To be fair, even the DVOA guys were like "wtf?"

[/ QUOTE ]

talk about lack of faith

Re: PokerFink\'s 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)
 

Here are the rest of the comments.

<font color="Blue"> 3. SEATTLE (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Kudos to CB Marcus Trufant, who had a great game this week with a pair of picks and four credited pass defenses. The 2003 first round pick has developed into a strong player, which I didn't think would happen after watching him get toasted repeatedly in his first two years. Trufant is the player Terrell Owens burned for a touchdown in the sharpie incident, but he's come a long way since then. NEXT: @ Pittsburgh.

<font color="Blue"> 4. TAMPA BAY (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Tampa can survive the loss of Cadillac, who's overrated anyway. But as Osi Umenyiora proved this week, losing your left tackle can be disastrous. Luke Petigue is not the same caliber as Tra Thomas, but the new starting left tackle is Who-Dat Anthony Davis. NEXT: @ Indianapolis.

<font color="Blue"> 7. DETROIT (3-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Quick, who leads the league in passing yards? The unstoppable Tom Brady? The red hot Tony Romo? The revived Brett Favre? The incomparable Peyton Manning? Nope. Jon Kitna, ftw. (Kitna ranks 7th in DPAR behind those four, Palmer and Hasselbeck). NEXT: @ Washington.

<font color="Blue"> 8. NEW YORK (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: It's been a tale of two seasons so far for New York. Blowout losses to the Cowboys and Packers followed by a first half pounding by the Skins. Since then, the Giants have played six fantastic quarters, destroying the Skins in the second half and sacking the Eagles like York at the hands of William Wallace. NEXT: vs. New York Jets.

<font color="Blue"> 11. SAN FRANCISCO (2-2) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: I imagine Trent Dilfer reacted somewhat like Willie Beamen in Any Given Sunday: "What? I'm going in? Are you serious?" Dilfer was abysmal, completing just 12 of 33 passes (36%) for 128 yards (3.9ypa) while taking five sacks and tossing two picks. No matter how you slice it - rushing, passing, receiving, Smith, Dilfer - the Niners offense is terrible. And now they're without Smith and TE Vernon Davis, and to top it off, the Ravens are coming to town. NEXT: vs. Baltimore.

<font color="Blue"> 12. MINNESOTA (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: According to the media, the key to NFL success is on the ground. You must run the ball and stop the run to be successful. Why? Because most of the media played the game in the 70's, when the NFL was a run-first league. Today, passing the football and stopping the pass are the keys to success. The Vikings prove this. Their impenetrable, record-setting run defense is back - last year the Vikings set a record with 2.76 adjusted line yards against (league average is about 4.2). They lead the league again this year with 2.74 ALY against. On offense, they have a strong rushing attack (ranked 11th) with stud rookie Adrian Peterson. So why is Minnesota 1-3? They can't pass the ball (26th) and they can't stop the pass (20th). NEXT: Bye.

<font color="Blue"> 13. CHICAGO (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Mike Brown, safety, out for season. Kevin Payne, safety, out for season. Nathan Vasher, cornerback, doubtful. Charles Tillman, cornerback, questionable. Lance Briggs, linebacker, questionable. It's not hard to figure out why the Chicago pass defense, ranked 2nd in the NFL last year, ranks 18th this year. NEXT: @ Green Bay.

<font color="Blue"> 14. ATLANTA (1-3) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: For years, supporters of Michael Vick asked whether the problem with the Atlanta passing attack was the receivers and not Vick. Well so far, Joey Harrington is 8th in the NFL with 22.2 DPAR. How many times did Vick accumulate that much value passing? That would be once, in 2002. In fact, in six years, Vick only had a positive value twice, meaning in four out of six years he was below replacement value. Examples of replacement value: Brooks Bollinger, Mike McMahon, Anthony Wright, Rick Mirer, Tim Couch. NEXT: @ Tennessee.

<font color="Blue"> 15. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: The Saints have had two weeks to correct their problems and realize that the three teams they lost to - Indy, Tampa and Tennessee - are all pretty darn good. NEXT: vs. Carolina.

<font color="Blue"> 16. ST. LOUIS (0-4) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Wait, wait, wait. Gus Frerotte is still in the league? NEXT: vs. Arizona.