AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

Villian is 15/11 over about 260 hands. Type of player you don't even notice is at the table, plays very straight forward. I had trouble with this because obv a set is in his range but I think there are some overpairs in his range as well. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $54.55
BB: $11.40
UTG: $88.40
Hero (CO): $59.35
BTN: $56.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, BTN calls $2.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $15.00</font>, Hero???

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I call and CRAI any turn to get max value from his overpairs. You're beat sometimes, but he needs to be able to raise you with only one overpair for the 3 sets he could have, for this to be neutral EV.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

fold

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I'm never folding here without a better read or deeper stacks. His raise could certainly be just him taking advantage over what he sees to be a standard c-bet on a garbage board that you probably missed.

If he has a set, oh well, I stack off here.

Whether or not you get it in now or CR the turn is up to you. But on that board I'm more likely to get the money in now since he could be drawing with a hand like 55.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

i call and then use my position. if he fires again with a reasonable bet on the turn i turbo fold this. he checks i check behind and then call basically every river bet

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
i call and then use my position. if he fires again with a reasonable bet on the turn i turbo fold this. he checks i check behind and then call basically every river bet

[/ QUOTE ] the button raised which means he has position through out the hand. Id probably push because theres a lot of scare cards on the turn.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i call and then use my position. if he fires again with a reasonable bet on the turn i turbo fold this. he checks i check behind and then call basically every river bet

[/ QUOTE ] the button raised which means he has position through out the hand. Id probably push because theres a lot of scare cards on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]crap i am havin a nightmare postin tonight. guess this will b my last one. lol. that makes me want to fold this. its gonna b tough to play the turn/river well here given that we r oop so i just dump it and move on

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
i call and then use my position. if he fires again with a reasonable bet on the turn i turbo fold this. he checks i check behind and then call basically every river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume he would fire another bet on the turn whether he had a set or just an OP... so there's really no need to call if you are 100% going to fold the turn (assuming an Ace doesn't hit).

It sort of does look like a set, which is why the flat call preflop. Not an easy fold, but I would fold it.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

if we push here we are only gettin called by hands that beat us. Callin puts us in a tough spot on the turn where we are gona check and hope he checks behind and we get to SD cheap, which is obv tough to do b/c we are OOP and a CRAI on the turn would be ugly. Also since its 3 handed and given villians nittyness i think it is ok to narrow his range to mostly sets. Though a few overpairs are in his range IMO he isnt goin to be this aggro w/ them multiway given your action, you said it yourself he is very straight forward. If it was just HU i might call and reval turn but then again your gona be OOP which will obv suck, but then IMO his range is a little wider. But id just fold here and move on. If you get a read that hes nitty pf but then plays crazy post then play accordingly.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

wow - tough spot... i have no idea how villain plays his set, especially in a 3-way pot. Call me weak, but I think I just let it go this time.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I'd feel more comfortable about folding if we held the Ad.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

This thread makes me realize how much I need to raise my flop aggression...

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I don't think he raises an overpair here, but overcards + flush draw is very likely. Your also in great shape against it, I probably push.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I'm flat calling and pushing any turn.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
This thread makes me realize how much I need to raise my flop aggression...

[/ QUOTE ]because u play 15/11??? its kinda an important point to the hand
edit: villians aggression would help figure this out a ton imo

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
a CRAI on the turn would be ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

I think thats the line I gravitate to here (assuming turn isn't a diamond), if i'm not folding. Gets max value out of other overpairs, probably forces a semibluff to bet a second time on the turn when his equity sucks, I think. Loses no more than pushing on the flop if we are already behind to a set. And gives villain some slack to hang himself if he decided to [censored] with you because he knows he is a 15/11 in your PT and that you are supposed to be folding to this raise.

But i'm far from confident, moreover curious. Please elaborate.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he raises an overpair here, but overcards + flush draw is very likely. Your also in great shape against it, I probably push.

[/ QUOTE ]

of course he raises an overpair

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I can see the villain raising with 33+ maybe even 22. If he's got 77-TT he's going to raise as there are so many scare cards for him. There's all the FDs with overcards to raise with as well. And of course it depends on your table image. Have you been Cbetting lots and taking pots down on the flop. If you have I'd proabably call the raise and CRAI on the turn.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

Ugh this is a lousy spot. W/ UTG still to act btn's raise is pretty strong, although the small raise kinda makes me want to continue w the hand. I think I fold here and I would tend to shove HU... if you have a decent # of hands on btn you should have a feel for what that raise size means in terms of how much sets are a part of his range, and whether he would raise 77-TT on that flop, even if you don't have a specific note on him. Generally a 15/11's flatcalling range on the button here is mostly small/mid pp's, so draws aren't going to be as big a part of his range, aside from 55.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I'd Fold.

Your normally against a big draw/Set/2pair. Your equity is pretty bad even though you may his aces up.

Your OOP for the whole hand, youve cbetinto 2 players and been raised. You know nothing about villans except he's a nit and that you haven't even noticed him doing anything funky.

The counter argument is - He's probably aggressive, your 2nd in and he'd expect you to steal this pot sometimes, he may have QQ and expect you to bet 88/99/TT/JJ.

However, soon as you raise.... check how many chips you'll have.

You equity is prob 45% against his set/pair+OESD/OESD+FD/2pair range.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I really think a 15/11 has a set or overpair here almost always. I haven't seen this guy show down many sc's in raised pots and I think he 3 bets me always with AdKd. I could see him thinking I'm fos and making a stand with an overpair, but this is exactly how he would play a set as well imo.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I come from full ring within the last year and I sometimes still find myself playing this tight.

When I'm playing this way, here's my range-
33, 44, 66 -- Most likely (explain no reraise... and no slowplay because of draws) -- this is a big part of the range

With the button, depending on the opponent and stacksizes, you will find hands like 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Since the relevent players have +100bb, these would be in my range here. I would raise these and be willing to get them all in nearly always.

AK or AQ suited - sometimes I reraise pf sometimes not. I would mostly raise the flop with these, sometimes not.

If I had QQ/KK/AA I most likely would have reraised you PF. Oftentimes with JJ as well.

I'm not likely raising you post flop with 77-1010... I think these are not that likely. I'm not trying to play huge pots with pocket 99s.

That's my 2 cents filtered, obviously, by what it means to me to play that tight.

I should add-- I sometimes raise here with 55 too, if I think the original aggressor has the power to fold... but since I have position, I often smoothcall and see what happens on the turn.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

I probably just fold on the theory that calling creates too many opportunities to make major mistakes later in the hand (e.g. we c/f a scarecard and he valuebets TT).

A lot of these guys with nitty PF stats play very aggro postflop, or play very straightforward against fish and very aggro against regs. However, if you haven't seen this guy do anything noteworthy over 200+ hands, I think folding is fine.

If I decide to continue here, I'm probably calling and shoving blank turns.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a CRAI on the turn would be ugly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

I think thats the line I gravitate to here (assuming turn isn't a diamond), if i'm not folding. Gets max value out of other overpairs, probably forces a semibluff to bet a second time on the turn when his equity sucks, I think. Loses no more than pushing on the flop if we are already behind to a set. And gives villain some slack to hang himself if he decided to [censored] with you because he knows he is a 15/11 in your PT and that you are supposed to be folding to this raise.

But i'm far from confident, moreover curious. Please elaborate.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP said himself that villian is ABC straight forward. IMO there is no way villian fires the turn w/ like 99 or somethin. If he is firing the turn (any turn but A obv) I think we are almost always behind. With those mid PPs i think villian gets scared if we call the flop not only b/c his hand isnt that strong but also there are tons of cards that can hit on the turn that should be scare cards. And once again if he fires those turns we are def behind and our c/r becomes a bluff b/c the CALLING range of a nit on the turn def has us beat.

I agree his range includes sets and a few overpairs maybe draws(less likely i think) but given that it is 3 handed and we cbet OOP i think a nitty villian is more likely to raise a set than say 99 here. If we push the flop once again i think villians CALLIN range is narrow (not as narrow as turn) and that kinda just turns our hand into a bluff. Callin just puts us in a tough spot OOP where we are gona check most the time and hope he checks behind which i dont think he is doin often enough.

All these ideas come to mind when i think of a STRAIGHT FORWARD 15/11 nitty villian but maybe im wrong??

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

Our Equity Versus Opponents Ranges (assuming we both go all-in):

Effective remaining stack: $48
Pot Size: $28.5

1) Opponent only does this with sets:
AhAs --&gt; 10.281%
66,44-33 --&gt; 89.719%
Our EV: -$35.20

2) Opponent does this with straight+nut flush draw:
AhAs --&gt; 35.567%
66-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd --&gt; 64.433%
Our EV: -$3.72

3) Opponent does this with sets + JJ
AhAs --&gt; 41.30%
JJ,66,44-33 --&gt; 58.70%
Our EV: +$3.42

4) Opponent does this with sets/JJ + draws:
AhAs --&gt; 48.632%
JJ,66-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd --&gt; 51.368%
Our EV: +$12.55

I'm a protective nit so I'd 90% fold this. However, I think you need more of a read than he's a 15/11 pre-flop to say this is a clear fold. Does opponent go all-in with overs on boards with draws? What's our image been, could he finally have something and be happy to raise us?

If he only does this with draws and sets we're -EV to mess with him, however, like others have said if he would do this with even just one over pair and go all-in then we should put everything in the middle.

I think fold or all-in, either play could be justified against our only read of 15/11 pre-flop. I'm going with fold unless we have aggressive post-flop image, then I'm looking to get it all-in.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think a 15/11 has a set or overpair here almost always. I haven't seen this guy show down many sc's in raised pots and I think he 3 bets me always with AdKd. I could see him thinking I'm fos and making a stand with an overpair, but this is exactly how he would play a set as well imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

AZ,

I think your reasoning is solid. It's truly a tough spot. Here's what I think it comes down to:

Stack sizes relative to pot size...if you call this there are plenty of cards that can cause you further headaches and it becomes sooooo much more difficult to fold after calling on the turn. If you arent sure where you are right now You TRULY will not know on the turn.

In This hand the flop is the point of maximum pressure. I believe you have a fold or push decision right here, right now

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

WTF at folding.

He is/could be raising all pocket pairs on this flop, maybe not 22, but raising with 22 here is fine too. depending on his flop aggresion, he might be raising any pair, any 8+ out draw.
Something important here is your image. Are you seen as loose? Seen as tight? Any semi thinking player realizes over 50% of your range totally bricked that flop. UTG already checked, so more likely than not he's just folding. The only question is how to extract the max.

I'm leaning towards a call and a turn c/r AI. If he bets about 15-20 on the turn, it should make for an easy push. Now if you told me his postflop aggresion is like .5, I'll consider folding here.

Re: AA facing flop raise from 15/11
 

[ QUOTE ]
WTF at folding.

He is/could be raising all pocket pairs on this flop, maybe not 22, but raising with 22 here is fine too. depending on his flop aggresion, he might be raising any pair, any 8+ out draw.
Something important here is your image. Are you seen as loose? Seen as tight? Any semi thinking player realizes over 50% of your range totally bricked that flop. UTG already checked, so more likely than not he's just folding. The only question is how to extract the max.

I'm leaning towards a call and a turn c/r AI. If he bets about 15-20 on the turn, it should make for an easy push. Now if you told me his postflop aggresion is like .5, I'll consider folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 15/11 does not strike me as the kind of player who's playing back stongly here with a pair of 2s or most mid pairs.

Though its true they could be playing back if they viewed OP as being out of line, we've been given no such information.

I think you overestimate how often a player that tight is raising that flop.