Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Keep in mind this only works on the NFL because it's the only evidence I have.

Each Sunday, for the last few years, a different Sports writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer (a paper I've been getting my whole life) picks every single NFL game against the line.

This year they have columnist Ashley Fox doing it. She has no sports handicapping history, and though sometimes the 75 year old grandma at the office wins the NCAA pool it's clear that a sports columnist doesn't have the expertise of judging NFL lines.

These sports writers have been consistent losers over the last few years.

I'm debating betting every single game against the columnist for the rest of the season.

Since this columnist has been a consistent loser the first few weeks (and the columnists in the past as well) and that you generally lose to the "house" I'm gonna act as "bookie" in my head and take "her bets" by betting on the opposite team.

Does anybody find this a sound strategy, in the least?

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

No.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

I guess it's kind of a play on the BSP concept, but if that's your theory there are better ways to do the analysis, IMO.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Since this columnist has been a consistent loser the first few weeks (and the columnists in the past as well)

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There's something wrong with this statement. Do you see what it is?

Oh, plus there are several other reasons why this is a bad bad plan.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Tell me why this is a bad bad plan

...and are you saying its bad because you think she'll get hot and start to push back to winning closer to half the games?

Obviously the juice is a factor that might cost me money (like she goes 6-10 or 7-9 every week but the juice will catch up to me) but I think there are definitely times where she may be able to go 4-12.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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No.

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No.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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No.

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No.

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Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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No.

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No.

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Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

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Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Put another way, take any 75 year old Grandma you want, ask her to pick the NFL against the spread, and we'd expect in the long run her to get ~50% right, the same as if you flipped a coin to make picks. It's actually hard to truly be much of a "consistent loser" when you aren't factoring in the juice. A few weeks is just a small sample size. It's highly unlikely, for example, that the various sportswriters in the Enquirer over the years have a cumulative record as bad as say, 40% winners (or even close). That's why if you take Bill Simmons, or a Norman Chad in a season when they pick(ed) every single NFL game every week, they invariably end up with a record very close to .500. And you can't acually "act as the bookie" because you have to pay the juice to make your bets.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

sample size = 4 weeks

no.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

F the haters. Do you think everyone jumped on the whole gravity bandwagon when Einstein first showed up? True genius is always met with cynicism. Keep fighting the good fight I say.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

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FLAWLESS VICTORY.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

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FLAWLESS VICTORY.

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Idiots, you are failing to take into account TRAP GAMES.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

and she could HAS LOCKS

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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are you saying its bad because you think she'll get hot and start to push back to winning closer to half the games?

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oh my goodness. I don't think you should be betting on anything.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

I will be happy to act as your book for all these games with a reduced juice -107 pricing line on all games.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

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NO ITS NOT DUCY?

I was torn between that and something about how you're a sexist pig or a comment about sample size being correlated with their small feet for added accuracy.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

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Jesus, have you ever seen a year-end totals by a columnist picker that isn't a loser?

I haven't.



That being the case, why don't you just fade every single columnist you come across?

Answer: Because it's stupid.








Now if you want to get into theories, let's talk about when 8 of 8 yambags in one group of columnists from the same paper ALL pick the same side.

That's called 'Fade Time', baby...

NY Post is great for this.


This is also, however, a stupid plan.

But not as stupid as yours.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

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I love reading Hondo tear into Blezow...


He also sucks worse on his 3 locks of the week than his whole board at a pretty consistent clip.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

The original idea being partly related to BSP philosophy has some validity of course. But you could do this with almost any columnist or fan-on-the-street or BSP. That's kind of the idea of BSP to begin with.
I think that looking at what a couple of BSP-type columnists are thinking can give you ideas on where the sharp-side may be.

Taking it so far as to find a columnist who is absolutely terrible and blindly betting the opposite is pretty extreme though.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Also...


Answer: The juice. That's why.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Guys, we should be encouraging this, think of the word document we'd get detailing all the times a backdoor cover went against him and all the field goal kickers that would be cursed out.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

The problem is this lady likely doesn't have the intelligence to make her a BSP which, ironically, puts her above BSP status.

A BSP knows just enough about the game to make him focus on the wrong things and make the idiotic, popular pick. This old lady doesn't even key in on that.

Also, the juice will kill. Another key to BSPs is they focus on the 1 to 3 games with the highest edge. Trying to bet all 14 games in that manner will lead to games where the edge is less than the juice. Believe me, I've given an interocular examination to wagerline/yahoo/whatever consensous, team 'experts' on wagerline, etc; none give a consistent edge.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

If you're betting every nfl game, you will almost certainly be a long term loser. The numbers for the sides/totals of most nfl games are pretty accurate, and usually not far enough off the true line to be exploited for profit.

Does anyone here think it's likely, or even possible, for the best handicapper in the world to be a long-term winner by betting every nfl game, with the same # of units on each contest?

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

>Go to www.espn.com
>Go to FANTASY and click on PigSkin Pick'em from the drop menu
>Create an account
>Fill out a "card" in which you can pick each game with/without the spread
>When you are finished, click on "Who pick whom"
>Find out who all of the 300,000 nits who play it for free each week like, and fade them

I have been doing this for the past two seasons to help validate my BSP picks. Works like a charm!

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

1) I don't remember Blezow doing that badly
2) Statistically, someone will run 9 of 10
3) There's still vig
4) He could start to run hot: http://www.nypost.com/seven/02022007...zow.htm?page=2
Colts 34, Bears 23

Eventually, he will revert to the mean [close to 50%].

Using him is provably inferior over the short-run to using the BSP picks here the past 3 years.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

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FLAWLESS VICTORY.

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Idiots, you are failing to take into account TRAP GAMES.

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True, I did ignore the 3-4 trap games a year. Make sure you know ahead of time which ones they are, then do the opposite of her.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

BSPs are so insanely hot on this board...must be over 60% in the time I've been here

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Maybe a stupid question, but why is it assumed that bad cappers will still hit ~50% over the long run?

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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Maybe a stupid question, but why is it assumed that bad cappers will still hit ~50% over the long run?

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Because they pick games randomly.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

because the linesmakers do the capping/thinking for you... it's like betting black or red in roulette (sort of, but not really)

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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BSPs are so insanely hot on this board...must be over 60% in the time I've been here

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Higher, I think. Nate 2 years ago dominated.
Here's last year:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
[unofficial, but note public wrong on ML, ATS, and total.]

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

i was contemplating doing the same thing against chris berman this year...every year, he's below the mendoza line, but if you didn't watch every pick, you might not know it, as i once watched him, AFTER THE GAMES WERE OVER, and he was re-capping his picks, he gave himself 10 wins for picking 1 game right because his record was so horrible...

never did it, and didn't keep up with his picks, though..

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

this threat is absurd.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

Lots of people couldn't pick 50% winners if their life depended on it and most of them write for newspapers. Worse case scenario, you lose the juice.

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

I think OP should just set up a poll in sporting events forum that asks for an opinion on the spread for each NFL game

Re: Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL
 

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The problem is this lady likely doesn't have the intelligence to make her a BSP which, ironically, puts her above BSP status.

A BSP knows just enough about the game to make him focus on the wrong things and make the idiotic, popular pick. This old lady doesn't even key in on that.

Also, the juice will kill. Another key to BSPs is they focus on the 1 to 3 games with the highest edge. Trying to bet all 14 games in that manner will lead to games where the edge is less than the juice. Believe me, I've given an interocular examination to wagerline/yahoo/whatever consensous, team 'experts' on wagerline, etc; none give a consistent edge.

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I agree with you.

Someone who throws darts should have a winrate of 50%. We all know this.

What is surprising is that people don't seem to realize that many people do have a true winrate of below 50%. The reason is that the lines are slightly shaded against favorites, because most bettors tend to pick favorites too often. There really are people out there who can be expected to win 48-49% of their games in the long run.

Still, this is a horrible idea and it is disgraceful that so many of us have even bothered to reply.