A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

"bob" limps in ep with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], "al" raises with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP, we're on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and we know the BB "ace" will call any number of bets with any two cards.

what is our best play? what is everyone's preflop equity in the hand? you have to make a guess without using any simulating software. write it down, etc. and next, check your answer:

bob with his 77: w%
al with his AKs: x%
ace with his junk:y%
us with JTs: z%

how'd you do? linky link to the answer

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

Here is my random Guess:

Bob: 27%
Al: 27%
Ace: 19%
Us: 27%

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

Bob:25%
Al: 29%
Ace:19%
Us: 27%

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

Awesome. I should do some of this stuff more. Here is my guess:

bob with his 77: 29%
al with his AKs: 31%
ace with his junk: 15%
us with JTs: 25%

What's our best play? What, if we can see their cards? If we don't know what their cards are I'm mucking. If we can see them I guess the play is to reraise trying to get it 3-handed postflop trying to create dead money from SB and from the EP limper. But would the limper fold 77 for two more bets when back to him? I guess not. I guess if we know the SB will fold, our decision depends on knowing our equity against the 3 other hands. If we have more than 25%, we should raise. But it would probably be more complicated taking future postflop action into acount - especially if we can see their hands there too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

how do you calculate this.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

bob with his 77: 26%
al with his AKs: 30%
ace with his junk:18%
us with JTs: 26%

I would just call preflop. I don't mind having more players in the pot when I'm holding JTs.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

[ QUOTE ]

I would just call preflop. I don't mind having more players in the pot when I'm holding JTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. from a strict equity standpoint, calling is likely the most profitable play.

there might be some circumstances that would add value to jamming preflop(increased fold equity, possible free card on the flop, etc.), but when you are at a minimum 4-handed the risk of this usually doesn't outweigh the benefits of cold-calling(preserve implied odds, encourage SB and BB to enter, etc.).

fwiw, my guess was as follows:

JTs: 26%
77: 25%
AKs: 35%
random/BB: 14%

it's good to think of situations like this and try to estimate your equity. it allows you to better assess in action at the table and plan the best course of action with your holding.

as far as i know, there's not really any simple "calculation" to figure these equities. it's more of an educated guess that comes with stoving/evaluating these types of situations away from the table.

And Now for the Flop!
 

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link .

And Now for Another Flop!
 

Flop 2

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

Flop 3

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

Flop 4

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

Flop 5

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link.



i know all of these are hard to digest at once. just make a good estimation. some of them should be fairly easy to estimate for certain holdings in certain spots. others will require a bit more thought/calculated guess.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

MY GUESS. It's gonna be embarassing to see how far off I am.


77: 15%
AKs: 40%
JTs: 30%
Junk: 15%

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

w:
x:
y:
z:

once again, linky link .

[/ QUOTE ]

AK: <1
A-x: <<<<<1
JTs: 41
77: 59

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

*grunch*
bob with his 77: w% - 27%
al with his AKs: x% - 30%
ace with his junk:y% - 15%
us with JTs: z% - 28%

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.
for the following flop what is everyone's equity?
Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
*grunch*
bob with his 77: w% - 70%
al with his AKs: x% - 7%
ace with his junk:y% - 0%
us with JTs: z% - 23%

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

*grunch*
Flop 2 - Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
bob with his 77: w% - 9%
al with his AKs: x% - 43%
ace with his junk:y% - 4%
us with JTs: z% - 54%

Flop 3 - Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bob with his 77: w% - 9%
al with his AKs: x% - 66%
ace with his junk:y% - 4%
us with JTs: z% - 21%

Flop 4 - Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bob with his 77: w% - 8%
al with his AKs: x% - 68%
ace with his junk:y% - 4%
us with JTs: z% - 20%

Flop 5 - Flop(8sb): J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bob with his 77: w% - 8%
al with his AKs: x% - 40%
ace with his junk:y% - 4%
us with JTs: z% - 48%


Nice quiz!

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

I said 28% at first and decided just calling was right.

I'm sick.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

bob with his 77: 29%
al with his AKs: 31%
ace with his junk: 16%
us with JTs: 24%

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

77 - 40%
AKs - 33%
JTs - 19%
XX - 8%

Edit: Wow. I suck.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

[ QUOTE ]
"bob" limps in ep with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], "al" raises with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP, we're on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and we know the BB "ace" will call any number of bets with any two cards.

what is our best play? what is everyone's preflop equity in the hand? you have to make a guess without using any simulating software. write it down, etc. and next, check your answer:

bob with his 77: w%
al with his AKs: x%
ace with his junk:y%
us with JTs: z%

how'd you do? linky link to the answer

[/ QUOTE ]

This is difficult because it is circular. AK has the edge over JTs. 77 has the edge over AK. But JTs and 77 are almost a coin toss, with JT possibly having the edge but I'm uncertain. JTs has an edge against any pocket pair smaller than 77.

I feel best with AK. 77 has to dodge four overcards. Small pocket pairs are only good in heads up pots or pots with several players.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

[ QUOTE ]
how do you calculate this.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wasn't caluculated. It was simulated. See the link.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is difficult because it is circular.

[/ QUOTE ]

all multiway pots have this effect.

most of the significant equity changes come after the flop, but this phenomenon is still present.

for instance, compare a multiway pot with one person holding top pair, another holding a nut flush draw, and some other opponent(s) with various crap(draws, pairs, whatever).

the flush draw makes money off of every additional person that enters the pot. it can actually cost the top pair hand money as people enter. so the flush draw welcomes players, the top pair resists them.

understanding how these equities intertwine is crucial to success at limit hold em.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

Great quiz - anxious to see if I even got the order correct.
Bob W=33
Al X=27
us Y=23
Ace Z=17

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

ok but I have yet to check preflop. Again - very instructional. TY

Bob W=20
Al X=40
us Y=30
Ace Z=10

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

It's more useful to know your equity versus a villain's range than a specific hand. The latter rarely comes up and when it does, your hand plays itself.

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's more useful to know your equity versus a villain's range than a specific hand. The latter rarely comes up and when it does, your hand plays itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's still helpful to see where you stand in these commone situations. substitute yourself for the AKs or 77 guy. see how your equity stacks up in terms of these specific examples and it becomes easier to estimate equity based on ranges weighted towards a specific type of holdings(ie. a certain draw or top pair or whatever).

in other words, being able to estimate your equity with certain hands in common situations helps estimate equities of complete ranges since alot of them are weighted towards a particular type of holding(based on the board/action usually holds top pair or a draw, etc.).

more importantly this helps you understand WHY something is how it is versus just seeing that something is how it is because the hot/cold sim tells you so(or the forum or a book or whatever). theory man, theory.
don't you see that?

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

wow i'm dumb.

I missed that the first flop had the 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], giving AKs like 5% more equity.

i think its more like

AK: 6%
JTs: 40
77: 54
Ax: <<<1

i might still be wrong though. i guess im real bad at this [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 45%
77 = 54%
AK = 1%
Junk = 0%

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop 2

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 55%
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] = 35%
7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 8%
Junk = 2%

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

After checking - I'm not far off. I think my biggest mistake is underestimating the value of the junk hand although if it really were a junk hand the value would be less than in the calculation. The calculator is using "random" so it assumes the guy could have anything from AA - 72o which isn't necessarily realistic based on the preflop action.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop 3

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] = 65%
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 15%
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] = 8%
Junk = 12%

This one is a little tougher.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop 4

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb):K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] = 50%
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 35%
7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 5%
Junk = 10%

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Flop 5

we call, sb folds, ace calls in the BB, and bob calls.

for the following flop what is everyone's equity?

Flop(8sb): J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] = 43%
J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 47%
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] = 5%
Junk = 5%

This one is tough. The Straight Flush draw get's discounted a bit because it's a gutter, and the 2 pair isn't quite as strong as a set in the previous example.

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

This is a good challenge James. You really got me thinking. After comparing my estimates to the results I can say that I must run enough stoves that I have a pretty good feel for this kind of thing. My last 2 were a lot closer than I thought I was going to be. Thanks!

Re: And Now for Another Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a good challenge James. You really got me thinking. After comparing my estimates to the results I can say that I must run enough stoves that I have a pretty good feel for this kind of thing. My last 2 were a lot closer than I thought I was going to be. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

good job on actually addressing all of the flops. it's pretty extensive and you're the first to put it in post anyway.

a big part of this exercise is looking at the flops from everyone's point of view, even though "we" have the JhTh in the OP. it helps to see how these situations intertwine or relate and then subsequently change as different variables are presented.

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

Bob = 31
Al = 29
us = 26
junk = 14

Re: A Quick Challenge on Preflop Equity; No Cheating!
 

bob with his 77: 26%
al with his AKs: 32%
ace with his junk: 12%
us with JTs: 30%

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's more useful to know your equity versus a villain's range than a specific hand. The latter rarely comes up and when it does, your hand plays itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you cannot come up with good guestimates on a single hand vs a single hand, how can you determine range values when it becomes that much more complicated? I know what you are saying here and am not contradicting it in anyway. What I am saying is that if you cannot relyably understand how a hand values when it is known, how can one possibly value a range vs a range?

This is a great topic.

Re: And Now for the Flop!
 

I've seen quite a few mistakes from people in this thread. They overvalue pocket pairs against a field and don't understand how the junk hand will affect play. While a PP should hold up it's share of the time against a single hand, the more overcards it has to deal with less likely it will be ahead.

As far as the junk hand, you really only have three cards that are gonna play good when you hit them, an 8, 9 or Q many of which may complete flushes or straights. Everything 7 and under is dominated by the 77 hand and everything T and over is outkicked by the other hands most of the time. Of course we're going to make two pair our share of the time and hold out on top pair the other share.