Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Im playing 100nl on full tilt, but this question is more than appropriate for you newer guys and should get you thinking.

I'm brand new to the table, played like a few hands and folded them all. I pick up

T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in MP and open raise to $25.

$25??!?!?! ZOMG MISCLICKAMENTTSSSS [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Button, who I know nothing about but I have datamined at 14/10/2 over 56 hands, very quickly shoves for precisely $100.

So I'm sitting there with my misclicked T8s, having been shoved on...but wait, can I call?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Your kidding?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Hand 0: 21.014% 20.84% 00.18% 2140905 18024.00 { Ts8s }
Hand 1: 78.986% 78.81% 00.18% 8096871 18024.00 { AA }

.78986*(-75) + 0.21014(125) = -59.2395 + 26.2675 = -32.972


Adding hands doesn't change things much. You're roughly the same against QQ+.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

this line works better with AA ama

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

You've got to ask yourself a question: Do I feel lucky?

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/9...yharry2nb3.jpg

Well, do ya punk?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Why do you think his range is that tight? Its a WHOLE lot looser than that.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

I dont think his tight, I think any pp 99 and above screws your math up to a point of no return.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think his tight, I think any pp 99 and above screws your math up to a point of no return.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the whole point of my post. Why does his range have to be that tight??

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Edited to refine range.

75 to win 125... against his range of 10%, I doubt you get odds, but this happens once in a while, and so the button could be opportunistic and be pushing MUCH wider than 10. I'd say that he'll play almost any ace (say A6up) due to likely showdown value, K9+, QT+, plus any pair.

Don't have pokerstove on the lappy, so I'll try to reason this out on my own... your cards are usually live, so the worst you are verse two unpaired cards is ~33%. 22-55 balances out JJ-AA, 66/77 give you about 45% each, against 88 you're something like 35%, against TT you're ~15%, and against 99 you're 33%. I'd say against the overall range, equity is ~37%?

So against range I specify you need ~1.7:1 which you're just missing (1.66:1 Pot Odds), so a call would be a slight mistake. If he plays a wider range with something like any A and any K, this becomes a call. You don't really indicate how many people fold, but it sound's like you're UTG so button has seen half the people fold which widens this range. I think there's a strong argument for a call.

Someone tell me if I'm way off. I actually misclicked half my stack PF the other day. Thank goodness everyone folded.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

It does not have to be stricktly 99+. But 99+ mixed up with unpaired overcards drops your equity to low thirties.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Thats more like it, ev_slave. Someone tell me, how many hands do I have to add to his range to make the call 0EV?

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
It does not have to be stricktly 99+. But 99+ mixed up with unpaired overcards drops your equity to low thirties.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not saying this is a call, I'm just trying to get everyone to think it out, because I think its close.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats more like it, ev_slave. Someone tell me, how many hands do I have to add to his range to make the call 0EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Props from AMA. Rock.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It does not have to be stricktly 99+. But 99+ mixed up with unpaired overcards drops your equity to low thirties.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not saying this is a call, I'm just trying to get everyone to think it out, because I think its close.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be close if a 22/18 does it.. but the guy is a nit, what is he putting 100 in with there.. QQ+ AK.

I 5 bet shoved over top of someone with T8s awhile back, I won the pot, but I don't think getting it in with T high is advisable most times.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

You need 37.5% equity against his range for this to be neutral EV.


equity
Hand 0: 37.824% { Tc8c }
Hand 1: 62.176% { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

Only problem is that he's a nit!

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

What do people think when they see someone open raise for 25BB???

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You need 37.5% equity against his range for this to be neutral EV.


equity
Hand 0: 37.824% { Tc8c }
Hand 1: 62.176% { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

Only problem is that he's a nit!

[/ QUOTE ]

The guy is a nit over a very small sample, and this is 100nl.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Didn't see its only 56 hands, sorry.

This is actually much closer to being a call than I thought it would be. However, You can almost certainly removed 22-66 from his range given the action. Without 22-66 we are down to 33% equity.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Three cases:

1. He shoves the better half of his 10% raise range because he thinks you have a decent hand.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.541% 70.25% 00.29% 74575477 313063.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.459% 29.16% 00.29% 30961245 313063.00 { Ts8s }

0.295*200 > 59
59 < 75; Bad call

2. He shoves his normal 10% range because he thinks he will get respect for the shove and has a lot of FE.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.474% 66.08% 00.39% 139179442 823661.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 33.526% 33.13% 00.39% 69786628 823661.00 { Ts8s }

0.335*200 = 67
67 < 75; close call (still bad though)

3. He shoves above his normal range (say 20%) because he figured out you misclicked and found some dead money in the pot

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.357% 63.67% 00.68% 263033989 2819329.63 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 35.643% 34.96% 00.68% 144420692 2819329.63 { Ts8s }

0.356*200 = 71.2
71.2 < 75; very close but still -EV

Conclusion: Even tho you open up his range to the double of his normal raise %, it's still a -EV call.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

There's no way this would be a +ev call. He would have to be shoving a pretty wide range....much wider than what he normally raises with.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

guys i think this thread is just a failed attempt at convincing people to call with T8s because nobody will call hes AA shove

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
guys i think this thread is just a failed attempt at convincing people to call with T8s because nobody will call hes AA shove

[/ QUOTE ]

Close. Actually wait, you're way off.

I ended up folding, but I realised afterwards that he doesn't have to be shoving THAT wide a range for a call to be +EV. Given that its obvious that I misclicked, I think his range is a whole lot wider than you think. I just thought it was interesting.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
guys i think this thread is just a failed attempt at convincing people to call with T8s because nobody will call hes AA shove

[/ QUOTE ]

Close. Actually wait, you're way off.

I ended up folding, but I realised afterwards that he doesn't have to be shoving THAT wide a range for a call to be +EV. Given that its obvious that I misclicked, I think his range is a whole lot wider than you think. I just thought it was interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. If he's smart enough and doesn't think you're a crazy guy who likes to raise 25 BB with big pairs, he simply has to put you on a missclick.
So his shove doesn't need a lot of backup, since he can ruin your pot-odds by pushing it in.
The only hand you might call are TT+ and AK, from his point of view. Since your range for a normal raise is much wider, Villain feels good with his move. I would do the same probably.

A call is still close and definitely not +EV.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

ama I'm at school right now so I don't have any programs here to calculate.
Get poker equilator (better then pokerstove): http://www.pokerstrategy.com/softwar...ilator_1_1.zip

You can put in an equity you need and then see a range etc.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

If he's half decent he realizes the blinds are yet to act and thus wouldn't shove that wide of a range here.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I ended up folding, but I realised afterwards that he doesn't have to be shoving THAT wide a range for a call to be +EV. Given that its obvious that I misclicked, I think his range is a whole lot wider than you think. I just thought it was interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

You barely know eachother, from what I understand, is the missclick really that obvious?

I just assume it is, there is one thing, I really don't understand and which would make this - without any math involved - a clear fold for me:

If he knows you missclicked, he also knows you were going to raise anyways, because if you just wanted to call, a missclick is way more likely to produce a raise to $2. So you folded every hand up to this point and now you raise in MP. Ignoring the amount for a second, if he puts you on a missclick, I think he also has to put you on an above average hand. At this point he has precisely two options: fold and wait for a better opportunity or push and put pressure on you and the rest of the table. At least I think calling isn't an option here for him, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think every half decent player should avoid a call here, it's on quarter of the stack in and probably zero FE against everyone who comes along. Now I'm taking a shot in the dark and postulate the following:

If someone is dominant/aggressive/"cool" enough to 3bet-push a range containing the likes of 22 and AJo against a missclicked but apparently decent hand, I'd personally expect him to 3bet this range in position against a standard raise as well.

If the 14/10/2 over 56 hands is any indication of his play, I just don't think he's the type of player to do this.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Why would you misclick to $25? Misclick to like 30-40 is way more realistic. I doubt anyone will ever be in this 25$ PFR scenario.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Agreed that a call is close, and even if it's only slightly -EV I would still call, because this does SO much for my image when I stack off AIPF with T8s, (or even win the hand, which might induce tilt).

I think the advertising advantaes of this call are huge as people will open up their ranges massively vs you in the future.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

On FTP if you press the slidebar somewhere in the middle you could probably hit 25. And it happens once in a while when you miss the pot button and quickly press raise afterwards.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

equity
Hand 0: 37.634% { Ts8s }
Hand 1: 62.366% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }


I get this range for Neutral EV: { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }

This is way off vs. panda's range for Neutral EV: { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

I think the latter is a much more likely scenario obv, but am confused by my results...

edit: i guess you're just starting w/ a reasonable range and going from there, whereas i'm using the slider? anyways, interesting as he could very well be shoving the second range and nowhere near the first.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

I dont know what using the slider means, I just added the hands I would expect to expand his range one at a time.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

[ QUOTE ]
What do people think when they see someone open raise for 25BB???

[/ QUOTE ]

protecting small pocket pairs or Junk- most of the time. Occasionally see AA,KK but not often.

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

How much are you willing to pay to put a TAG on megatilt? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(calls for metagame)

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

Thinking too much guys, $100 is obviously a misclick - get it in!

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

ahahahahahah! I think i call , for some reasons.

1.T8 of spades is probably one of my favorite hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2.Im a luckbox [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

3.Its freaking good for your image and metagame

4.U can put him on big tilt here if he got a big hand ,i mean without this missclick its not worth the risk , but now...with 25$ already in the pot , maybe it is u know.

If i was in this situation i would call for sure

Re: Here\'s an interesting one for you guys...
 

easiest call ever! Why?

Because this smells like rounders...

"ahh the new mike. He wont be pushed around... BUT! I reraise ! "

"Doyle Brunson says the key to no limit holdem is to put a man for a decision of all his chips. Teddy's just done it. He's representing Aces, the only hand that beats my T8s. I can only call, hoping to hit my monster"

So by calling we're letting him know:

1) We wont be pushed around!
2) We're gonna show him what a monster hand T8s is
3) We're not afraid to gamboooool
4) Think of the metagame possibilities dude. METAGAME!!
5) We're gonna stack him again in the next few orbits, because we're gonna overbet / shove all of our good hands