Week 6 POTW
 

There has not been a pick of the week thread yet so lets start on.

My POTW is [1315] 1H WISCONSIN+1½-115.

What are your POTW

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Dallas -10.5 easy, Dallas has been good to me all year.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Week 6 POTW
Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u


I know...a big road fave
only reason I'm not on for a fourth unit


4-1 POTW ytd (23-11 2p2 history)
G Tech +3 @ ND: +WIN G Tech 33-0
Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: +WIN 28-17 MSU
Utah +14 v UCLA: +WIN 44-6 Utah
Indiana +3 v Illinois: -LOSS 27-14 Illini
Oklahoma/Colorado u56: WIN 27-24 Colorado

POTW gets my reasoning:

My number crunching has ASU -12.5!!!!
So, I look at the matchups and see no reason to lean Wazzu's way over my numbers. ASU has a great pass defense (#6 in pass efficiency). They held down a Colorado team that is ok passing. they picked off the Beavers 5 times... at clutch moments, too. No one has victimized them through the air, yet the passing offense is about all Wazzu has going for it. Wazzu's pass offense looks great v inferior opponents, but struggled against teams with good pass Ds (17 of 28 for 171 with 1 Int and 1 TD v Wisky, 21 of 43 for 183 with 1 int and 2 TDs v SC). Furthermore, Wazzu's rush offense is below average and ASU's rush defense is top 10. Look for Wazzu to get put in many 3rd and longs and throw a pick or two. Don't look for Wazzu to get many big plays as ASU doesn't have to respect the run game and can play 2 deeps alot.

On the other side of the ball,
Wazzu's defense is 111 in pass efficiency. FFS, they let Willie Tuitama throw for 350 and 6 TDs last week! Through 5 games, the Cougs have allowed 120 completions on 182 attempts for 1452 yards and 16 TDs while getting 7 ints (4 of which came v Idaho). ASU is #9 in pass efficieny and avgs 275 a game through the air. They also have an average rushing attack (over 4 ypc), which will force Wazzu's average rush defense (allows 4.5 ypc, but has played SC and Wisky of its 5 opponents) to pay it some mind. Looks like a decent amount of points from the ASU side.

I see a 38-21 type game.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

North Carolina +9 (-110) got it early at betus, i see it is 7.5 now
UAB +19 is my co pick of the week, I have 2 units on each of these

1 unit on:

Houston +13
So. Florida -17
Oklahoma -11

YTD NCAA 4-3 + 1.7 units

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Notre Dame +20.5 vs UCLA

I know, I know, ND is not very good but UCLA is pretty mediocre too IMO. 20.5 is just too many points to give.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

oh yeah, for those that don't trust my numbers, mine are alot closer than some out there widely available

sagarin has ASU 22 points better than Wazzu on nuetral for predictor, 19 points better overall.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Mine is Tulsa -3 @ UTEP

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Thanks for the analysis. I like the pick too but I'm always leary of laying points up there. Seen some strange inexplicable games in the Palouse over the years.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

I think the whole Pac10 has soem weird things happen on occassion

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the whole Pac10 has soem weird things happen on occassion

[/ QUOTE ]

How true. Curious if you used 3 pts. as default for home field for this.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Jax -2.5 @KC

Ohio St -7 @purdue

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jax -2.5 @KC



[/ QUOTE ]
I also like Seahawks +6

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

I dont think the Ohio State - 7 is a good bet. I think purdue will keep it close or even win this game.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think the Ohio State - 7 is a good bet. I think purdue will keep it close or even win this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

kmaldona@purdue.edu LOL

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

A little biased but I have purdue at + 3 1/2. Look at the past games. PU vs OSU always been close.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Edit- wrong thread.

My POTW is the Auburn over I believe.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont think the Ohio State - 7 is a good bet. I think purdue will keep it close or even win this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

kmaldona@purdue.edu LOL

[/ QUOTE ]
NH Sir

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
A little biased but I have purdue at + 3 1/2. Look at the past games. PU vs OSU always been close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Purdue has done well in games where they have had a good defense (or 2004 when OSU sucked). If they can keep it a low scoring game, they have a shot. Giving up 19 points to the worst offense in the country is probably not a good sign of having a good defense.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

Loving Green Bay -3 at home against Da Bears. Greise is junk and so is that Bears O.

-Brendan

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A little biased but I have purdue at + 3 1/2. Look at the past games. PU vs OSU always been close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Purdue has done well in games where they have had a good defense (or 2004 when OSU sucked). If they can keep it a low scoring game, they have a shot. Giving up 19 points to the worst offense in the country is probably not a good sign of having a good defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

ND's frosh receiver made some HUGE plays in that game to get them to 19 points, specifically 2 long catches on 4th down. Purdue's defense played fine IMO.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
A little biased but I have purdue at + 3 1/2. Look at the past games. PU vs OSU always been close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate that kind of thinking.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

POTW is the 49ers giving 3 at home to the Ravens. TAKE THE RED CIRCLE OFF THAT [censored] SO I CAN PARLAY IT WITH ALL MY OTHER PLAYS.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

9ers are getting 3, not giving.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

I was thinking of betting teh 9ers ML there. Also thikning of betting the Car ML - they are getting 3 in N.O.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
9ers are getting 3, not giving.

[/ QUOTE ]

word, that's what I meant

anyone think the tenn line will stay at 8.5? don't want to make an early tease if it's moving to 9.5 :x

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
Edit- wrong thread.

My POTW is the Auburn over I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, actually my pick of the week is going to be Auburn -6.5 -121 (available on Matchbook) My thoughts are expressed in the early CFB lines thread.

I'm also on several other POTW's mentioned here so I'm feeling good about the weekend. I do like the over as well on this game.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

It should be noted that my Auburn pick is actually closer to -124 because of Matchbook's commission. I forgot to add that in.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the whole Pac10 has soem weird things happen on occassion

[/ QUOTE ]

How true. Curious if you used 3 pts. as default for home field for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

i used 3.5 pts

basically, I use Phil Steele's guide for HFA and then adjust based on national exposure of the game and spread differential.
Steele estimates each team's home field advantage based for each individual institution. If the home team is even to or slightly worse than the road team on a nuetral field, I add on an extra .5 point to HFA as home field plays the largest role in these scenarios. If the spread is 20+, I'll deduct .5 points (or even a whole point for huge homefield advantages) as the crowd doesn't play a large role when the team is up 24 in the 4th qtr.

I'll also add a half point for THursday/Friday nights (home teams have killed in these games) and the very rare national spotlight game on Saturday....like LSU-FLorida this weekend is clearly a spotlight game.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
There has not been a pick of the week thread yet so lets start on.

My POTW is [1315] 1H WISCONSIN+1½-115.


[/ QUOTE ]

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/5...157x157oz1.gif

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There has not been a pick of the week thread yet so lets start on.

My POTW is [1315] 1H WISCONSIN+1½-115.


[/ QUOTE ]

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/5...157x157oz1.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

close thread.

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There has not been a pick of the week thread yet so lets start on.

My POTW is [1315] 1H WISCONSIN+1½-115.


[/ QUOTE ]

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/5...157x157oz1.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

[ QUOTE ]
Week 6 POTW
Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u


I know...a big road fave
only reason I'm not on for a fourth unit


4-1 POTW ytd (23-11 2p2 history)
G Tech +3 @ ND: +WIN G Tech 33-0
Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: +WIN 28-17 MSU
Utah +14 v UCLA: +WIN 44-6 Utah
Indiana +3 v Illinois: -LOSS 27-14 Illini
Oklahoma/Colorado u56: WIN 27-24 Colorado

POTW gets my reasoning:

My number crunching has ASU -12.5!!!!
So, I look at the matchups and see no reason to lean Wazzu's way over my numbers. ASU has a great pass defense (#6 in pass efficiency). They held down a Colorado team that is ok passing. they picked off the Beavers 5 times... at clutch moments, too. No one has victimized them through the air, yet the passing offense is about all Wazzu has going for it. Wazzu's pass offense looks great v inferior opponents, but struggled against teams with good pass Ds (17 of 28 for 171 with 1 Int and 1 TD v Wisky, 21 of 43 for 183 with 1 int and 2 TDs v SC). Furthermore, Wazzu's rush offense is below average and ASU's rush defense is top 10. Look for Wazzu to get put in many 3rd and longs and throw a pick or two. Don't look for Wazzu to get many big plays as ASU doesn't have to respect the run game and can play 2 deeps alot.

On the other side of the ball,
Wazzu's defense is 111 in pass efficiency. FFS, they let Willie Tuitama throw for 350 and 6 TDs last week! Through 5 games, the Cougs have allowed 120 completions on 182 attempts for 1452 yards and 16 TDs while getting 7 ints (4 of which came v Idaho). ASU is #9 in pass efficieny and avgs 275 a game through the air. They also have an average rushing attack (over 4 ypc), which will force Wazzu's average rush defense (allows 4.5 ypc, but has played SC and Wisky of its 5 opponents) to pay it some mind. Looks like a decent amount of points from the ASU side.

I see a 38-21 type game.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOSS....the Cougs got to Carpenter and sacked him over and over much to my surprise

Re: Week 6 POTW
 

I was surprised you were so heavy on a big road fave.