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-   -   Woah! Where did that come from? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=513760)

OziBattler 10-02-2007 08:21 AM

Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Reads: Juicy fishmax table. fishy everywhere and lots of community pots. The turn donker runs at about 45/5/1 and I have the following note on him "33ColdCalledPreflop and called down total underpair..didnt bet it when checked to on river HU", the other PFRer is pretty laggy and lurves to raise light preflop (25/20)...postflop I havent seen anything noteworthy so far from a SD hand and the dude in the middle has only been here a couple o orbits and loves to limp in preflop and call call call. I dont have more than 60 hands on anyone.

U likey the Flop play? And anyway, so whats your move and whats the plan for the rest of the hand when the bet comes out of nowhere on the turn? State your plan. Noobs and lurkers encouraged to reply....

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Ozi (BB)
UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, BTN folds, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, SB calls

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Ozi bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO caps</font>, SB calls, Ozi calls, UTG calls

Turn: (14 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Ozi ????

Julio 10-02-2007 08:28 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Some idiot probably hit a set. Your play on the flop was ok, but with that many players in the flop I probably would have just called down.

I'd probably just call down the rest of the way, unless it gets capped on both streets. I'd like to think I'd fold.. PT says I've been dealt KK three times, having folded once (on the flop), having lost money overall on the hand.

fabadam 10-02-2007 08:47 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I think this is a curse and fold situation. The way you're describing SB, he's only betting with at least 2 pair, more likely a set or A5 here.

Oink 10-02-2007 09:08 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Yuck!

A5 and 54 are 32 combos. 22 is 3 more. Thats a lot of hands that beats you [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I dont fold vs idiots in big pots on principle so I just call and pray CO calms down. If CO and SB starts raising each other I would fold. Same if UTG wakes up.

Prolly a fold the first time around tho

DBSpecial 10-02-2007 09:25 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
You can fold this pretty easily with 2 players still to act behind and SB donking the turn after a capped flop. God knows how many bets you'd have to pay to showdown.

Oink 10-02-2007 10:02 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I dont think this is such an easy fold.

Hero has CO beat rather often as A9, T9 and TT is in his range

Also, donks will often bet something like A9, A5, A4, 54 and A3 on this turn.

This is a massive pot and as said, I hate folding for 1 bet vs idiots.


Also in my first post I meant "65a and A5 are.." not "54 and A5"

bozlax 10-02-2007 11:35 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Yeah, Pat, I'd like to buy a vowel.....


This is a pretty easy fold, imo. Flop play is goot, but your note makes me think that you're most likely drawing dead, at best drawing to two outs (all your hidden outs being dirty).

Smurph64 10-02-2007 12:28 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
eck lousy meat in the middle of a sandwich. Do I raise to push out CO or call and know I may have to call twice more in the hand before the turn.

So I am pretty sure this may be a cap turn and an expensive call with second top pair.

I call one and fold if it comes back to me for two more.

Bona 10-02-2007 12:34 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Sir... It depends....I do like your flop play; but only if you did it to force villains to define their hands and now are comfortable folding behind with 2 outs. If you were determined to see showdown I wouldn't have 3 bet the flop.

NH if you folded here but not if you call down now. Especially now that SB is in play.

Landonfan 10-02-2007 12:48 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Fold, then kill yourself when they show QQ and 9xdd.

Actually, I call down, but fold if I have to call two at any point.

scpi10 10-02-2007 12:51 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Grunch

If it were me and I was in the heat of the moment I'd raise, but rereading it I'd fold. I don' think you can call because it looks like CO loves his hand and he will raise it and then it will be 2 back if SB raises.
SB could have 2 pair, trips or a straight which means your outs are discounted or you're drawing dead.
CO could have alot of hands but from the flop action he has a pp 99+ or A9.
Plus the fact that UTG loves to call he also taints your 2 pair outs.
After the weak analysis I still say fold

Reaction 10-02-2007 12:51 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
What follows will surely get me bashed into yoctoLimits.

Raise. A lone donk from a guy who has a 1) limited read and 2) done nothing but call is not enough for me to give up in a 14BB Pot. Yes, I may be drawing dead or to limited outs but I really would like a 6 out hand (or 6+) to fold incorrectly. Granted, we don’t get much, if any, of that equity. This is a gigapot – not the time to save bets.

I would entertain the idea of calling and seeing what Lag does but most often he is going to Lag. Which, if SB treys I could then fold.

Xylocain 10-02-2007 01:03 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
:g:
I think this is an fold. SB pretty much always have you beat, but the reason to fold is really CO which may still be going bananas pumping the pot for SB.

shuinthehouse 10-02-2007 01:12 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I'm afraid I call this during action, but it looks like a fold to me, SB either has a set or a str8, CO looks like a set also, 33, 44, 99 are all in his range. Other option is A9s, but would he cap you after you 3 bet PF and bet-3bet flop? He would probably raise you with A9s hoping you have UI overs, but he'd have to be very aggro to cap with it.

Which makes me wonder, what was your turn plan if checked to you? Check to CO flop capper, or lead out calling one and folding for two?

Buzz-cp 10-02-2007 01:32 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, Pat, I'd like to buy a vowel.....


This is a pretty easy fold, imo. Flop play is goot, but your note makes me think that you're most likely drawing dead, at best drawing to two outs (all your hidden outs being dirty).

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]? getting 15:1, and we still could have the best hand, and we are afraid of a turn donk? Maybe he donks with JJ "My overpair is still good." Wow folding here is pretty bad.

Xylocain 10-02-2007 01:34 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I think the question is, do we get to SD for 2 BB? And do we want to wast one just to find out if CO raises?

Buzz-cp 10-02-2007 01:38 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Save 99, CO has turned his hand over.

We have not committed to a showdown yet. If it gets raised and 3-bet, back to us, then we can fold. But right now, the information we have does not even suggest to me that we are folding getting 15:1.

Buzz

larm 10-02-2007 01:55 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
i call and see what happens on the turn... pretty big pot IMO

DBSpecial 10-02-2007 02:04 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think the question is, do we get to SD for 2 BB? And do we want to wast one just to find out if CO raises?

[/ QUOTE ]
Exactly. It's all very well to say call the donk and see what happens but CO is almost certainly going to raise, and then it's back to SB. As I said in an earlier post, we have no idea how many bets it will take to showdown our 1 pair. We have no reliable post-flop info on CO and we think SB is L-P.

Smurph64 10-02-2007 02:56 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
If CO raises its two back to you for sure. The call is predicated on the hope that at 15:1 he isn't going to raise 1 time in 15.

Its a pretty straightforward call one and fold to two situation.

OziBattler 10-02-2007 08:10 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
my thoughts here are that folding is pretty weak. Its a freakin huge pot which is partly my doing.

I honestly thought this was a decision between calling and raising. Lets look at the action so far. CO is laggy and did NOT cap preflop. The likelihood of him having AA is minimal and unless he specifically has 99 or the unlikely lower set ive basically got him crushed with few outs. His flop capping is wtf and a concern though but if he is laggy this doesnt mean we are toasted. The calling station probably either has a draw or a weak made hand. If he has a draw I doubt he folds even if i raise. Im really most concerned about the donker here...wtf can he have?

I dont really like a raise here though because the prospect of pwnage is there and this is 6max where we often see idiots do idiotic things. I also think that if the 2 guys behind me have something then if I call they will define there hand at this point and tell me if Im beat and the donker will 3bet if Im pwned at which point I can release but call otherwise if he has something like 2pr or shizz like that.

Another way I thought about this hand was that if this were HU Im calling down for sure when that guy donks the turn and even though this is 4way to the turn I expect all sorts of calls from hands that I beat such as QQ-99, TopPair etc etc and as such Im getting a nice overlay abeit at the risk of being outdrawn. Im happy to take that risk and if I can get this to SD for a couple more bets in THIS BIG FREAKIN POT then Im doing it.

Landonfan 10-02-2007 08:22 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Another way I thought about this hand was that if this were HU Im calling down for sure when that guy donks the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a horrible way to think. SB's not donking into one person, he's donking into four people after they capped the flop.

OziBattler 10-02-2007 08:50 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Might not be great but it isnt horrible but I agree that his donk signifies more strength than usual when donking into 4 but this is a HUGE POT and I think its worth trying to see a cheap SD here especially since we will soon know if we have to release our hand. Dont get me wrong...Im not in love with my hand here but folding here for 1 bet is weaksauce IMHO (just as blindly going putting in 3+ bets from this point on to see SD is not good either)

perhaps this donker is aware enough to know that he has great position to try and get '1 bet at a time' from the guys between him and the flop capper but in my experience a guy with those stats just knows to CR a set here.

Landonfan 10-02-2007 08:57 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I don't fold for one either. I'm just saying it's not good to think like that.

Bona 10-02-2007 09:04 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I'm kind of interested to know your thoughts when you 3 bet the flop? I am still thinking if we felt we had to go to showdown because of who these villains are the flop 3 bet was contra-indicated and once we are subsequently capped by one villain then donked by the other it is a not so subtle signal that we are toast.

Also I can't get A5 out of my mind when SB donks this turn. Largely because we are drawing stone dead against that and I think a) it is the most likely holding and b) it is likely in his range.

OziBattler 10-02-2007 10:03 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
zomg I have a big pair Balls to teh mofo wall Value! Im expecting to get paid off by lower pockets and random pairs and draws that dont come in by the river. this isnt nitty FR its loose and easy 6max.

CO cap was a surprise but I still think that I have that lag beat since he didnt cap preflop and I dont put him on AA. UTG prob wont fold to even a cap but if he can make a FTOP mistake then it gives him a chance to when its 2 more to him. All was good in the world til the donk....

Landonfan 10-02-2007 10:10 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I forgot this was 6max. Don't fold here ever. And it's closer to a raise than I thought.

Bona 10-02-2007 10:29 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Landon,

What am I missing here. Is KK the absolute nutz in 6 max [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]? In full ring it beats no pair hands and smaller pairs. But it doesn't beat 2PR, AA, sets, trips, straights etc. you get the idea.

We are in 3rd place here if we are up against reasonable players. We have some outs against 2PR and 2 outs against sets. Pot odds are not a concern against a made st8. The only question is where are we against THESE players.

One last thing. The fact that bad players sometimes get good hands kind of balances the pot size. At least a little.

Wait... one more last thing. If they have played a few orbits with Aussie and are paying any attention at all, they are not firing at him with air [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

larm 10-02-2007 10:46 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
A hand i just played.

Preflop was a misclick and the hand is not exactly the same as aussibattlers. The message is dont fold good hands for one bet.

Villian is Postflop lag.


Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (19.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has As Jc (two pair, jacks and twos).
MP has Js Kd (two pair, jacks and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins 21.25 BB. </font>

Xylocain 10-02-2007 10:51 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I think you are missing the point, we have one player racing to cap on the flop... and then ANOTHER player (that has been calling like 1 million bets cold) donks a relatively harmless card on the turn. He knows that he is in for a ride when he makes that donk and he still does it.

If we were heads up wit CO this would be the easiest hand evar.

Bona 10-02-2007 10:55 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Here are some interesting facts. They are insufficient to prove anything and I'm not sure what they would prove anyway.

From PT- six max hands only:

Dealt KK 176 times
Won with KK 120 times
Won before showdown (all fold) 50 times
Won when improved post flop 61 times
Won @ SD unimproved 9 times

Big pairs lose value quickly when unimproved?

Landonfan 10-02-2007 10:59 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Landon,

What am I missing here. Is KK the absolute nutz in 6 max [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]? In full ring it beats no pair hands and smaller pairs. But it doesn't beat 2PR, AA, sets, trips, straights etc. you get the idea.

We are in 3rd place here if we are up against reasonable players. We have some outs against 2PR and 2 outs against sets. Pot odds are not a concern against a made st8. The only question is where are we against THESE players.

One last thing. The fact that bad players sometimes get good hands kind of balances the pot size. At least a little.

Wait... one more last thing. If they have played a few orbits with Aussie and are paying any attention at all, they are not firing at him with air [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
6max games are much looser than nitty ass FR. That doesn't make KK the nuts by any means, and we're still behind a lot, but there's a better chance we're not. And by "closer to a raise", I actually meant "still a call, but closer to a raise than it had been, though it really wasn't that close to a raise to begin with". Sorry, I should have clarified that.

larm 10-02-2007 10:59 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
yeah but villian 1 is laggish and villian 2 is a lp who can do random things... i dont think i can fold to a single bet here

Landonfan 10-02-2007 11:02 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Here are some interesting facts. They are insufficient to prove anything and I'm not sure what they would prove anyway.

From PT- six max hands only:

Dealt KK 176 times
Won with KK 120 times
Won before showdown (all fold) 50 times
Won when improved post flop 61 times
Won @ SD unimproved 9 times

Big pairs lose value quickly when unimproved?

[/ QUOTE ]
wtf? You improved a lot of the time. Does that count when you made two pair on a paired board?

Bona 10-02-2007 11:08 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
QUOTE from OP:The turn donker runs at about 45/5/1 and I have the following note on him "33ColdCalledPreflop and called down total underpair..didnt bet it when checked to on river HU" END QUOTE

This is the guy who donked the turn after two other players capped the flop.

What does he do this with? And how many outs do we have that beats the worst hand he would do this with?

Landonfan 10-02-2007 11:28 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
He probably has us beat. If he does we have eight outs or less.

But the pot is big, and we can add in at least two more bets from CO. There are an ungodly amount of combo draws out there. I don't think I can fold here.

Reaction 10-03-2007 12:09 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
[ QUOTE ]
this was a decision between calling and raising

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

[ QUOTE ]

I honestly thought this was a decision between calling and raising. Lets look at the action so far. CO is laggy and did NOT cap preflop. The likelihood of him having AA is minimal and unless he specifically has 99 or the unlikely lower set ive basically got him crushed with few outs. His flop capping is wtf and a concern though but if he is laggy this doesnt mean we are toasted. The calling station probably either has a draw or a weak made hand. If he has a draw I doubt he folds even if i raise. Im really most concerned about the donker here...wtf can he have?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
also think that if the 2 guys behind me have something then if I call they will define there hand at this point and tell me if Im beat and the donker will 3bet if Im pwned at which point I can release but call otherwise if he has something like 2pr or shizz like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure if the accented thoughts follow. You say @ the decision point that the Lag is crushed
and the calling station is going to call. Then you go on to state calling will help define their hands. How? The Lag will raise and the CS will call. The hands you are defining are Hero’s and the donk’s.

+you fully expect to pay 2BB to see the river if you just call (i.e. the last bolded part – could be misread/type).

Also, if you get a 6 outer to fold for two bets and force a passive turtle with two pair to shell up I can not see how that is not around a +2BB EV. 6 outs still need 7 to call, right (17/2=8.5)?

edit: Just realized not all EV is ours

You have probable hand ranges and could do some EVs calcs.
:
CO - AA is minimal and unless he specifically has 99 or the unlikely lower set
CS- either has a draw or a weak made hand
SB- has something like 2pr or shizz and adding from a later post “a guy with those stats just knows to CR a set here” so discount --- oh, don’t forgot the monsters

Do you think raising is correct but are trying to rationalize calling. Do we fear pics of Andrew Jackson on fire or getting played. This is gambooooooling...

Last- good posting hand.

OziBattler 10-03-2007 12:27 AM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
to summarise my ramblings in this thread

The donk is scary but I think folding to this turn donk is weak given the potsize. Im yet to see an convincing argument for raising this turn and cant really make one myself that is coherent enough to put to e-paper as we appear to be already boned but cant be sure in a big pot. So that leaves the option of call and see what happens....

When I said they wil define their hands on the turn I mean that Im able to get away from my hand if it goes bet and reraise.

[ QUOTE ]
oh, don’t forgot the monsters

[/ QUOTE ]

dont worry...I wasnt...I havent chosen my words well in this thread. sigh.

FWIW I called....

OziBattler 10-03-2007 12:21 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
I cant resist no longer...heres how it went down. why the [censored] do we bother getting reads. maybe he misread his hand for 56. lol.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Ozi (BB)
UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, BTN folds, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, CO calls, SB calls

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Ozi bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="red">Ozi 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red">CO caps</font>, SB calls, Ozi calls, UTG calls

Turn: (14 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Ozi calls, UTG calls, CO calls

River: (18 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, Ozi calls, UTG calls, CO folds

Results: 21 BB Pot (0.5 BB Rake)
Ozi showed K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and WON 20.5 BB (+15 BB NET)
UTG mucked J9o (converter didnt show it but raw HH did) and LOST (-5.5 BB NET)
SB showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (high card Ace) and LOST (-5.5 BB NET)

Ulkis 10-03-2007 12:33 PM

Re: Woah! Where did that come from?
 
Ozi, you're a luckbox, I would've been against Ax for sure. Your mate was on a BD flush draw and when A dropped he closed his eyes and went for folding equity he thought he gained...


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