200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Hand history is on my desktop and i dont want to get up, so i will improvise. Villain is playing on the looser side of TAG around 24/20ish seems to play and hand read well and has a very high postflop AF over a smallish sample size. Villain should view me as TAG, but I have run into a few crappy spots at the table and had to fold after showing aggression.

Hero has 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP calls $2, CO calls $2, BTN raises to $11. Hero calls(knowing loose full stacked fish will come along), MP calls, CO calls.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks (i lead sometimes here, probably should have in hindsight), MP checks, CO checks, BTN checks (he has 7 AF, wtfkdfjalfj!!)

Turn: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero bets $34, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $68, BTN jams for $105 more effective.


Fistpump call? Reluctant call? or reluctant [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] fold?

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Going for c/r in 4-way reraised pot turns your hand face up?

I'd just lead the flop, and definitly bet the turn smaller, board is so dry...

River sucks, i think you're beaten mostly. Don't know if i can fold, it's still possible he was squeezing KQ.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Going for c/r in 4-way reraised pot turns your hand face up?

I'd just lead the flop, and definitly bet the turn smaller, board is so dry...

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not necessarily going for a c/r and bet sizing is fine, belive me.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

i'm having a hard time figuring out what he expects your turn betting range to be, but this + how smart you think he is should tell you what to do on the river.

my instinct says fold

also, flop is a clear bet. people don't cbet this board with air and c/r shuts out the fish, anyway

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Lead flop, I'd snap call and be pretty happy about it.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

i think my thought was c/c flop lead turn, and hope some fish come along drawing slim since i figured this villain to cbet this flop 100% given previous play, but I do agree that leading the flop would have been muuuch better.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

INSTA call, it looks like he has j9 I guess, specially if you are making this post, but meh, scrwe him. Not a fan at all of leading flop though, and I don't like lead turn either :/

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

You describe him as a good player, so knowing there's fishies involved in the hand I would expect him to HARDLY ever check back an overpair or set of queens.

The only hand I'm really worried about is pocket tens, but meh if he's really good he'll be value pushing KQ which is enough to make it a call I think.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

yeah i ran a pretty reasonably stove looks like a really easy call all things considered.

I felt retarted for folding at the table and this thread has validated that idea.

I should rename this thread: 200nl How to eff up middle set.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

This is a perfect spot to lead the flop. At the river I don't think I can fold even though I am soooo weak tight...

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
INSTA call, it looks like he has j9 I guess, specially if you are making this post, but meh, scrwe him. Not a fan at all of leading flop though, and I don't like lead turn either :/

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Kind of interested why you don't like flop lead.

With fishies acting behind the only options are to lead or c/c. I think leading is sliiiiiiiiiiiightly better, cuz it's kind of gay when it checks through.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

I've actually been convinced to fold, since all the hands that I would ever imagine checking behind on that flop have you beat, it's a terrible spot to shove, and I'm not sure if everyone shoves KQ 100% of the time...

ur such a good nit patrick

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

actually seems like easy fold. He is never bluffing with this line, and he is never raising worse for value.

24/20s with 7af dont check this flop with kq.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

I like a call here. There are a number of 2 pair combos (QT, KQ - I disagree that this player would always bet TPGK into 3 callers) and even a weird 22 in his range, and only J9 and TT are reasonable holdings that beat you. I have to believe a good player would fold AJ on the turn.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

i always call here, not sure if that is good or bad.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
INSTA call, it looks like he has j9 I guess, specially if you are making this post, but meh, scrwe him. Not a fan at all of leading flop though, and I don't like lead turn either :/

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You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player. Also don't think he is calling turn with AJ, so I would think two pair and TT make up the better part of his range. I'd call.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

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You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player.

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loooooooooooooooooool

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Does look like J9 but I'm not sure I can fold it. I don't think checking this flop in order to check raise is that horrible. I mean I really think somebody stabs at this a good portion of the time.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

4 diamonds on the board? gross.
5QKJT board? gross.
villain has $250 more effective? gross.
this river call? not so gross.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Perfect flop to value-town one of the idiots with a Q. c/c the flop or c/r the flop seems really bad considering what a great spot this is to just lead a bunch of times. The flop potsize is perfect for it; you don't even have to bomb the flop.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

loooooooooooooooooool

[/ QUOTE ]

Make posts that have some value plz.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

A little confused on everyones analysis. What are the stack sises .
Does no one think in terms of pot odds implied odds ect.

First of all I'm assume the stack sizes are around $200???. If the fish you were looking to call with are short stacked your call pre flop could be weak (short stacks look to move all in here often your relative and apsolute position are bad), so I have to make that assumption they have money behind.

on the flop the pot is $44. is $200 started you have 190..if your covered. If anyone has anything it should not be two hard to get some one stacked here. All you need is to get about 80 to 100 more of your money into the pot by the turn and them move all in. The pot would then be 120 to 140 larger then your remaing stack and a hard fold for most players ect week tight. Bet 30 to 40 on flop then 60 70 on turn...would be my plan.
going for kr and betting out turn kind of the hard way. The pot size makes these bets easy the straight forward way.

As played the k through on the flop now makes your task much more difficult .

pot odds...by the $105 effective rase the pot is now around $330 your getting 3 to 1 odds...on a set... You showed weakness on the flop....Mad ae bet on the turn (not necceriy that strong ) got one expected caller. and made a second bet on the river...not that large. If I was reading you for weak tight I might put you all in here at least one out of 3 times on my AT even might play AJ with the intention of doing this to you if I missed. and I'm a coward. The way you played it you have to pay off here.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

I think if you were to give him a range here, you can include two pair hands he hit on the river that he decided to valueraise, so that makes this a call.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

loooooooooooooooooool

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"Villain is playing on the looser side of TAG around 24/20ish seems to play and hand read well and has a very high postflop AF over a smallish sample size"

What is so funny exactly?

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You think villain raised J9 after two limpers? Don't think so ... he seems like a decent player.

[/ QUOTE ]

loooooooooooooooooool

[/ QUOTE ]

"Villain is playing on the looser side of TAG around 24/20ish seems to play and hand read well and has a very high postflop AF over a smallish sample size"

What is so funny exactly?

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That you don't think he's raising J9 on the button after 2 fish limped. This guy is raising J9s 100% of the time here, and probably J9o occasionally as well.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

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24/20s with 7af dont check this flop with kq.

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I had a guy with a flop AF of 25 check AQ on a Q high flop multiway before so I don't think this is always true.

Re: 200NL Gross Spot with a set?
 

Im calling and expecting to win ~30% of the time...def enough to call this at least. QT/KQ is really all we beat, but I think he has it enough to call...I also dont agree that a 24/20 is always betting this flop with KQ- I play about that, and would check here for pot control a decent % of the time.