Hand from Borgata WPT
 

The details in this hand are crucial. Please read it twice, and think about it carefully before posting.

Borgata $10,000 WPT - 30k starting stack and it's level 2 - 50/100 blinds

UTG is a typical Armenian guy in his 30's. He looks wealthy, and I don't know if he's actually Armenian, but he plays like one. That means that he likes to bluff, get tricky, and overvalues the importance of reads. He's competent and thinking, but would probably get killed in a typical online game.

The BB is a white guy in his mid 30's with a sports cap. He doesn't seem rich, and probably satellited into this event. He has had a beer or two, and has been talking about football with another player at the table. He seems like a relatively nice guy. Probably has some experience in home games and/or low stakes in the casinos, but isn't a high stakes player. He has been tight, solid, straightforward, and not tricky at all. He bluffed once vs the old lady. It was a good bluff, and everyone at the table was surprised to see him flip it over. It wasn't a huge all-in or anything crazy like that. He could use a bit more aggression in his game, but isn't terrible by any means, and is rather good compared to the typical east coast satellite player.

I have been playing looser than most at the table. People haven't been trying to play pots vs me, and most of them think I am good. I have been somewhat tight after the flop, but very aggressive, and haven't shown down many hands.

UTG limps for 100. Folds to me in the SB. I call with red 8's. The BB meekishly says raise, kind of under his voice if you know what I mean, and I make a note to myself that there's a pretty decent chance he has a huge hand here. When he throws out 500 more chips (making it 600 total), that somewhat confirms my suspicion. Armenian and I both call without thinking about it.

Flop (1800 in pot): A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I go for a check raise with my bottom set, but it checks around.

Turn (1800 in pot): T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet out 1300. The BB throws in a 5k chip and a 1k chip. After 3 seconds, he says, "Call!".

UTG and I are silent. The other players at the table debate it, and one calls over the floor. Obviously after hearing the situation, the floor says it's a raise. While the explanation process is going on, the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

The Armenian guy plays with his chips. He gets out 15k chips like he's planning on raising, stares down the BB a bit, but thinks better of it and folds. It sure seemed like he was thinking about making a big bluff, but decided against it.

Action is on me. The BB has roughly 16k behind, and I cover him by about another 16-18k. If you suggest a call, state your river line as well.

NO SHORT ANSWERS WITHOUT EXPLANATIONS PLEASE

There is a key to this hand that requires deduction from what I have written. IMHO, there is a clear answer once you figure out the key. The great Alan Sass, and the legendary Thorladen were able to deduce it. I was not. Can you?

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I kinda assume the Armenian guy is the "Armenian Express" dude? He's super clowny...

...and this seems like you're getting angleshot hardcore.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
I kinda assume the Armenian guy is the "Armenian Express" dude? He's super clowny...


[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not Chris Gregorian.

And dude, come on you're a mod. No short answers without explanations please!

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

When first reading it over, i found it hard to believe that he would be angle shooting you, by meaning to call, but actually raise, but what bothers me his he threw out Two chips, A 1k and a 5k Chip which there is no way that you can throw out two chips and them be equal to 1300. So what was he thinking? did he think you bet 1500 and meant to throw that out? or Does he have AA or another huge hand and intended to raise. I think from everything added together, including ur preflop reads, he has AA or KK or less possibly AK/TT. I don't think a call is bad if you decide that he was genuine in his live mis click on the turn, i think thats actually preferred, but with c/folding most bets, unless he bets really small.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
When first reading it over, i found it hard to believe that he would be angle shooting you, by meaning to call, but actually raise, but what bothers me his he threw out Two chips, A 1k and a 5k Chip which there is no way that you can throw out two chips and them be equal to 1300. So what was he thinking? did he think you bet 1500 and meant to throw that out? or Does he have AA or another huge hand and intended to raise. I think from everything added together, including ur preflop reads, he has AA or KK or less possibly AK/TT. I don't think a call is bad if you decide that he was genuine in his live mis click on the turn, i think thats actually preferred, but with c/folding most bets, unless he bets really small.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was implying that he meant to throw out a 1k and a 500 chip rather than a 1k and 5k chip. That is not the key to this hand.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I think he has AA KK maybe AK or TT. your read PF was a possibly huge hand. he migh also have QJs and the under the breath thing was not b/c of a huge hand but b/c he knows he shouldn't raise with QJs but he also knows he needs to show more aggression or b/c he's worried about the Armenian limp/re-raising with premium.

now I don't know what chip denominations there are available with two chips that could have made up 1300 - it would usually take a 1k and 3 100 chips - that's four chips. so it was no accident that he put in a 2 chip 6k raise. he wants you to call or raise. you are definitely behind and I would fold.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I think the key to this hand is that he said so many times that he meant to call. I think it's possible that he did mean to call, but by saying so he's probably just trying to cover up his true strength. I just don't think he'd say that if he was weak, because he would fear that you would 3-bet him now. So he must welcome that 3-bet, and he must have a stronger hand than you do.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Hey Justin, I had a hand extremely extremely similar happen to me at same event...

Thoughts on the matter, in kind of list form because its easier for me to sum up all my thoughts that way.

1. Given that he's competent/you're considered scary player/ he's BB/the UTG limper, I don't see his raise size as being necessarily an indicator of anything other then the ordinary. However, I feel given all previous hand setup situations, that he wouldn't raise without a fairly strong hand because there are tons of hands he's not going to want to play in-between you and an armenian 300 bb's deep. I would expect JJ+ AJs+ AQ+ and most broadway suiteds as the range although you probably have a much better feel for the range being at the table.

2. his check on the flop is terrifyingly strong, in the I have the deck crippled and its a rainbow board sort of way (HOWEVER, with lots of players that will not exclude AK here, not to mention the concept of how hard it is putting in 300 bb's if he checks this flop esp with an aggressive guy in UTG) Therefore, the better of a player you view him to be, the less likely I feel him to have our set beat on the flop, and the worse he is the more likely that is.

#3 Granted that I'm paranoid about these things, this has allllll the makings of an angle shoot in his turn raise. Its his way of being tricky, and perhaps he's thinking enoguh to know that UTG is crazy and maybe can be tricked into bluff cold-3betting here.

Everything about this hand makes me want to fold, and I'm thinking back at the chip colors at borg, and there's no real way to pretend the 5k is a 500... especially with the long pause. I'm somewhat baffled by his claiming the intention to call. If we call this bet, the river is so bad for us to play, as he doesn't shut down AK if he had played it this way for value UNLESS he truly did mean to just call because he's passive enough to feel he put enough chips in with that hand, which I doubt is the case.

In the end, even though I feel I've said nothing, I honestly think I throw it away because I think we're beat a ton here, we have miserable reverse implied odds, our table seems soft from the description given..

As I read this over I hate everything, and feel the key issue has to be his mindset for checking the flop, which is much easier to divine with you actually being there. I'd base the rest of the entire hand on how you perceived his body language as he checked the flop and your opinion of his general skill level.

Lastly though, if you believed him to be genuine in wanting to have just called, an argument could be made for calling this turn raise and c/f any river bet he makes. this mindset comes from the thought that your call should lock him out a good % of time, and he shouldn't be in a spot here the requires a bluff now on the river when we check, and more importantly it seems unliekly if he somehow does have a KQss hand that he turns it into a bluff on a blank river and just lets it go check check

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

There is a very important aspect of this hand that no one has even mentioned yet.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

"perhaps he's thinking enough to know that UTG is crazy and maybe can be tricked into bluff cold-3betting here."
I didn't think about this but I kinda doubt it, though only ZJ can say if that's possible really.

Also, I forgot to say that I recommend folding, though mastr makes some good points about how he would play AK differently depending on how good he is. It just seems like he checked the flop either because he had AA/KK, to slowplay, or he likely had TT and was just giving up but now spiked a set.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Justin,

I think this is actually a fairly easy decision. You just can't raise here, even if he thinks you are taking advantage of his mis-bet, with his assumed range and the fact that this is a standard tight guy in a live tournament, he just isn't calling a 3-bet shove with worse. And the way this hand played out, I would be very surprised if he bets the river as a bluff or a valuebet with a worse hand than yours. I would call and check/fold on most rivers to most bets. I might have to call if he bets small on a completely harmless river, but I think that decision is even somewhat trivial and based upon your read of him. Calling and making a small (1/2 pot type) lead on a variety of rivers is also acceptable IMO, and might be preferable, but once again I don't think its a huge difference and it really depends on your read of the guy.

-Jeff

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
the BB says several times that he meant to call. He is very adamant about it too. He doesn't seem upset at the ruling or anything, but I guess he just wants to make it clear that he wanted to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if the guy had AQ or a draw and his bet was ruled as a raise, he'd be somewhat upset. Nor do I think he ever has a bluff here given above. Very unlikely he was going to pretend to call, while actually intending to raise as a bluff or call turn so he could bluff you on river. His line and the above actions seem extremely strong. Not to mention that people's ranges out of the bb, raising over an UTG limp are usually slim to begin w/. There are 9 possible combos of AK, and 9 possible combos of AA/KK/TT, but he could show up w/ QJ occasionally, but I doubt he ever has one pair or worse. Anyhow, I think you should either just call or fold because you're a dog vs. his range, but depending on how you weight AK/AA/KK/TT/QJ, there may be enough overlay where you can call and c/c river. But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

I vote fold.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
Justin,

I think this is actually a fairly easy decision. You just can't raise here, even if he thinks you are taking advantage of his mis-bet, with his assumed range and the fact that this is a standard tight guy in a live tournament, he just isn't calling a 3-bet shove with worse. And the way this hand played out, I would be very surprised if he bets the river as a bluff or a valuebet with a worse hand than yours. I would call and check/fold on most rivers to most bets. I might have to call if he bets small on a completely harmless river, but I think that decision is even somewhat trivial and based upon your read of him. Calling and making a small (1/2 pot type) lead on a variety of rivers is also acceptable IMO, and might be preferable, but once again I don't think its a huge difference and it really depends on your read of the guy.

-Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I think this hand is interesting is not because the correct answer is hard to come by (although I should point out that you are the first to say call I think).

Let me try to think of a way to phrase this that won't give away the answer.

The key to this hand is somewhat simple, yet I told the hand to about 10 great players, and the only two that came up with the correct EXPLANATION, were Thor and Alan.

Thor is an incredibly smart guy. Arguably the best bridge player of all time.

As for Alan, I have said several times on 2+2 and my website that he is quite possibly the best live tournament player on the planet.

Once you hear the explanation, it will probably sound very simple. I suspect it will be a while before someone correctly posts it here.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
But call and c/f river is extremely awful, as he's betting river extremely often, except when Q/J comes off on river.

[/ QUOTE ]

but why?

What if he really just wanted to call the turn? then he would check behind on most rivers, but if he bets? Then he is most likely angle shooting and you can fold. If you think hes angle shooting then you fold, if u think he actually wanted to call, then you call and check the river, because hes not betting worst (save for AK, but i think he bets the flop with that). Under these circumstances hes almost never bluffing the river or making a thin value bet.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

never mind

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
And dude, come on you're a mod. No short answers without explanations please!

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah okay fine. anyway, if you think "1K + 500 -> 1K+5K" is a plausible error, that changes things a little, but I don't think the Borg's chips are similarly colored? I can't see why you're dismissing this one easily.

having said that, if that's not what you're going for, the other plausible option IMO is that, as straightforward as he is, he's simply worried you have the nuts on the turn, which doesn't help your hand at all, either.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

A "tight, solid, straightforward" player raises pf from bb over an UTG limp, checks flop, moves to call, but accidentally raises, and then isn't upset about raising. Which hands from that range will check behind on a blank river?

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I'm surprised no one is confused by the fact that he wasn't upset. If he did have a monster, wouldn't he pretend to be upset?

Don't focus on this too much though, because it's not the key. Just a little something I found interesting.

I'm curious who the first person to find the key will be. I bet it's going to be a very well respected poster. Maybe LearnedFromTV!

Edit: I'm going to sleep relatively soon. I'll respond more in the morning.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

zj, i kinda expected a lil discussion on my ramble at least.. I don't think its as open and shut as you may think, and I know I can never hope to be thorladen or Mr Sass.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
zj, i kinda expected a lil discussion on my ramble at least.. I don't think its as open and shut as you may think, and I know I can never hope to be thorladen or Mr Sass.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everything you said was both logical and relevant.

You were definitely the closest to the "correct explanation" so far, but that's probably only because you also wrote the most.

I will not be very surprised if you do a little bit more thinking and are the one to come up with the specific explanation I'm looking for... but you haven't yet.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I think it looks like he wanted to slowplay his three aces on the turn one more time, but he obv doesn't mind when the ruling gets him to raise. I think the key is that there are very few hands which you don't mind your call getting ruled to a raise, and I think all of those hands got you beat(exept maybe AK).

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

What is this DOUCY-esque junk with "the key"? Do you really expect everyone to factor in every little live read when they weren't at the table? I think getting the responses you've gotten w/some actual reasoning and suggestions for the most profitable line is quite an accomplishment in this forum. Explaining why some tell changes the correct decision or even why it is in fact the correct decision is a little more productive than this guessing game IMO. In my experience, the key in a hand is to come to a logical decision that accounts for all of the information at hand and that maximizes ones long term expectation. I think the posters responding are doing a decent job of extrapolating the correct decision which you have obviously already decided on (and wanted to post just to show everyone this?) from all of this live read "if he had a strong hand he'd have acted" mumbo jumbo.

It's certainly a good hand to post, but you know, come on. Don't go Sklansky on us!

-Jeff

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Dude now I have to reread this goddam OP seven times to figure out the key

It's like my youth, watching Legend of the Hidden Temple

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I think the kicker is that in his preflop raise, when you noted he was strong, he verbally announced his action meekly and then acted

Now, he acts first and then verbally makes his decision, and in a punctuated manner.

Distinct order difference in auditory versus physical action.

I think that is the big thing you are looking at?

It would seem as if, were the intentions that he angle shoot you, that his angle shoot be premeditated and he make his raise more congruent or better timed with his action, ie throwing this chips out while saying "call".

So, I think you are ahead.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

The first thing that jumps out at me is that I doubt very much that the BB, being a straightforward, low-stakes player would be attempting to angleshoot. He probably doesn't even know what that means and would probably never want to appear to do anything out of line. I think you can take him at his word that he did, in fact, just want to call. How useful this is in narrowing his range, I don't really know. It seems he would check the flop with much of his range (AA/KK/AK because he thinks he's trapping, QQ/JJ/TT because he hates the two overs). Now, on the turn, assuming I'm right, and he does intend to just call, he could again be trapping, esp given your aggro image post-flop, but I think if he has one of the hands that has you crushed, he's probably raising. The board got more draw-heavy and the trap he set on the flop worked. I would call the turn raise and check/call any reasonable bet on most rivers.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Hes got TT. I have ruled out KK because I think he'd bet the flop being a straightforward player.

I think the mistake with the chips is genuine, there is a lot of back up for this:

1/ He has 'had a beer or two'.
2/ 'He doesn't seem rich, and probably satellited into this event' which means he probably hasn't played in many casinos.
3/ Its only level 2 so he hasn't been playing long and might not have familiarised with the chips.

Even though he has turned a set he knows that a/ the armenian limped from UTG and b/ you've been 'somewhat tight after the flop' and hes a bit worried that hes still beat. He wants to keep the pot small and is planning on c/c the river.

When he realises he has raised the turn he gets worried that he is going to be raised by either of the players and will be in a tight spot where he might have to fold. Hes probably most worried that the Armenian has slow played KK looking to miss an A high flop or you have QJ.

as for the key - hes not rich and doesn't want to loose (although i'd like to say the booze)

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

What is this a [censored] treasure hunt?

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I have no idea what the "key" is, but just in terms of the hand, which is a good one, here's my reaction

The way the hand went down, the fact that he delayed his verbal "call" after throwing his chips out contrasted with his meekish before putting the chips in pf verbal call.
+
UTG + hero's image as two players very likely to bluff 3b an "accidental" raise.
+
The range of a tight solid ABC player that makes that pf raise in that spot actually wants to raise in that spot a lot more often than call in it.
=
A very possible fold.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

1. He raised 500 more pre-flop. Would that not indicate that he knows which are the 500 and the 5000.

2. Its also the 2nd level, he probably hasn't used the 5000 chips yet but conveniently throws one in for the first time here (bluff vs old lady wasn't a big all in).

3. I presume he could have put in a 1k chip and three 100 chips to call.
1+2+3 = Angle-shooting imho

Edited for clarity

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I would fold based on the information you give about BB. You were suspicious from his manner he had a big hand when he raised preflop. Someone wouldn't make an effort to appear weak with AK. That sounds like AA/KK.

I would be very suspicious of the accidental large raise. My experience is that bad players or amateur players almost always doing something different when they have a big hand. Like they never just make their standard preflop raise with AA. I wouldn't assume he couldn't angle shoot.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

The key to this hand is the Armenian guy. you say he played his with his chips because he was contemplating a bluff but this could be nonsense. It is possible he noticed your attempted check raise (although unlikely). Nevertheless your action is still strong, checking and then betting oop -The Armenian, I think, mucks either AK or AQ (therefore narrowing villain's range somewhat) making a call, not a raise mandatory. As jeff said, you can't raise as he never calls a 3-bet shove with worse.

I am officially talking rubbish.

Nice blog justin, post more.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Edit: I can't read

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
The key to this hand is the Armenian guy. you say he played his with his chips because he was contemplating a bluff but this could be nonsense. It is possible he noticed your attempted check raise (although unlikely). Nevertheless your action is still strong, checking and then betting oop -The Armenian, I think, mucks either AK or AQ (therefore narrowing villain's range somewhat) making a call, not a raise mandatory. As jeff said, you can't raise as he never calls a 3-bet shove with worse.

I am officially talking rubbish.

Nice blog justin, post more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to mention something about this. You descrive the armenian for half an hour yet, the hand isnt against him. I dont know how you shoul interpret the fact tat he was about to stick some chips in there, does that mean that armenian finally decided villain has a monster and is unbluffable, or did he decide that villain most probably has air, but is afraid of you behind.

I dont know why everyone is saying that if you shove he cant call with lesser hands. I have seen it many times when people incorrectly put the wrong number of chips, and then go on to call because they think they are being bluffed at.

I think the best option here to be on the safe side would be to call and check call rivers especially that the action was that confusing.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is this a [censored] treasure hunt?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

Unless BB is going for the sick fake angleshoot bluff, he obviously has either AA,KK, or TT.

I guess this doesn't matter but why didn't you raise originally preflop?

edit: after looking at reponses it looks like i may be way off. i guess im missing something important. although in actual real life i would never fold here.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
Unless BB is going for the sick fake angleshoot bluff, he obviously has either AA,KK, or TT.

I guess this doesn't matter but why didn't you raise originally preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you raise preflop? It seems like completing OOP after the UTG limp and maximizing your implied odds is much better.

I noticed looking at the PokerXFactor HHs that some people go by Chris Ferguson's extreme no limping rule and will never limp, including never limping behind.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unless BB is going for the sick fake angleshoot bluff, he obviously has either AA,KK, or TT.

I guess this doesn't matter but why didn't you raise originally preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would you raise preflop? It seems like completing OOP after the UTG limp and maximizing your implied odds is much better.

I noticed looking at the PokerXFactor HHs that some people go by Chris Ferguson's extreme no limping rule and will never limp, including never limping behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont have a no limping rule, but i like to raise my good hands. based on description of utg i dont think justin should have any problem playing 88 oop vs him. should be easier to win a big pot too if we raise.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

heh for some reason AKss or AQss stick out to me for his hand. I think your plan for PF and flop were comepletely wrong with 300bbs raising 8s for value there in SB is fine you want the pot size to be bigger when you flop a set and possible underset utg. Also you can narrow BB and UTG ranges better when you raise PF. Given that you did that why are you c/ring the flop? It's draw less and he folds everything but AK AA and KK on the flop. I much rather c/c flop and do something goofy on the turn to get more value from worse hands outside of AK. I def call turn with a little over a PSB effective left. I don't see any reason for betting any river card even the case 8. I prob c/call any river besides Jx Qx as he's not betting his sets then or turing aces up into a bluff.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

I have read this post like 10 times now and I don't think I am any closer to determining what the key is.

That being said, BB trying to just call on the turn with Armenian man left to act behind him screams insane strength to me. If I were good I might fold now. I suck though and would probably try to spike an 8 (lol) and then lose a river bet.

Re: Hand from Borgata WPT
 

if you 3bet big it looks like you are trying to take advantage of his "mistake," so he probably calls with a bigger range