Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

dammit people, that could have been a good thread...so Im going to continue it. If you start with the damned flame wars again, I hope a mod temp-bans you for 3 days...this is freaking poker discussion website, not some idiotic ego bloating blog.

villan is loose and semi active. only been here one orbit but he has been limping alot. he's like 40/14 over 30 hands. he doesnt seem very good and definitely active. hero has been pretty active, i just won a large pot with 22 on a AA2 board vs. a donk's turned flush.

i may appear like a station, i've been calling alot of bets. what is your turn play here?

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $80.90
UTG+1: $986
CO: $289.93
Button: $141.14
SB: $313.85
orange: $563.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) orange is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, orange checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7, 3 players)
orange bets $6, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($25, 3 players)
orange bets $20, UTG+1 raises to $40, Button folds, orange ...?

Anyway, I'm 3betting that turn all day versus THIS villain...We have reads that he is "loose, active, and overall bad"...

I think his range is much wider than just flushes here...raise turn to like 120ish and you can fold to a shove...he will call with EVERYTHING he raised with initially and only shove higher flushes. He'll call with sets hoping to fill up, with lower flushes because he's a donkey, and with 2pr because he aint foldin' 2-pair.

VB the river and fold to a shove....

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

here's the link in case it gets buried: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post12319764

I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush. If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

I'm requoting what I said earlier b/c I think it was good: :-)

[ QUOTE ]
Mainly b/c you're 200+bbs deep and so often in spots like this you end up getting it all in with 0 equity against higher flushes (ignoring that orange did have a straight flush redraw), and at the same time you fold out worse hands and only get action from smaller flushes, which I think is a smaller portion of his range. "Folding out worse hands" is a point that can be argued, but I really don't see people raise sets on the turn very often at all when the action goes like that.

With 100bbs shoving becomes better. But here, by 3-betting, you're allowing the pot to go from $25 on the turn to $1000+ on the river, and you VERY often have 0 equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

I disagree. FGators, despite being annoying as hell, was totally right imo. Unless you have some specific history or something that orange surely would've mentioned, this is always a flush. Only question is whether ours is higher.

PS, lock in 5..4...

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with this, but there is SO MUCH MORE that he is calling with that (imo) is in his range that isn't just higher flushes.[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

[/ QUOTE ]yes, I don't see what is so bad with that...I think the bet would be very very +EV, and that calling a raise would be -EV. We can def bet 130 and confidently fold to a raise imo.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

A loose, active & bad player probably doesn't have a set here, but he might have a turned combo, like KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I'd probably call here and call a moderate river bet. But given this, it's probably best to not bet the turn.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

I agree with casper's line and reasoning on this one.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with this, but there is SO MUCH MORE that he is calling with that (imo) is in his range that isn't just higher flushes.[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

[/ QUOTE ]yes, I don't see what is so bad with that...I think the bet would be very very +EV, and that calling a raise would be -EV. We can def bet 130 and confidently fold to a raise imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Casper you seem to be of the opinion that Orange should bet this turn. Suppose opponent has a set. Will he call turn and river bets, or just turn?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Casper you seem to be of the opinion that Orange should bet this turn. Suppose opponent has a set. Will he call turn and river bets, or just turn?

[/ QUOTE ] Of course we are betting this turn...there are like millions of hands to get value from. 40/14 players (yeah yeah after 30 hands- maybe he isn't really 40/14, but there is a 100% chance he is still a donkey) aren't folding sets on the turn where they can call and hope to improve...and then "LOL its the river and all I have to do is call to see a showdown!!! wheee, oh damn he has a flush, lucky bastard. Online poker is rigged."

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Casper,

It's impossible to prove this either way, but I'm confident villain either has a flush or a hand less than a set on the turn like 90% of the time (meaning that he's rarely raising/calling a 3-bet with less than a flush because people like him don't seem to raise the turn with like a pair with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and you don't see a set often at all).

ok, that's confusing, but I'm trying to say... 3-betting usually folds out everything but flushes (feel free to argue, you might be right) and now we're left with examining how our flush holds up. Surely as the flush gets lower you should 3-bet less often, and for me, T9hh is right on the cusp of when you should just call.

When playing ridiculously deep (281bbs deep here) you are going to lose a lot of money by trying to get all-in with hands that you would try to get all-in if you had 100bbs. Protecting all these big blinds is more important than maximizing against a small portion of his range (lower flushes) in spots where it's very obvious what you have. He knows you have a flush, and he gets to play almost perfectly against your hand if he has a higher flush and thus can manage to bloat the pot from 12.5bbs on the turn to almost 600bbs on the turn/river and you have 0 equity against that part of his range (once again, ignoring straight flush redraw).


edit: at the end I was talking about "trying to get all in" etc. and it's clear you're not advocating that, so just ignore it I guess. but one question: does a donkified villain ever get all-in with a 7 high flush here? And if he is shoving it, how confident are you now about 3-bet/folding?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Casper,

It's impossible to prove this either way, but I'm confident villain either has a flush or a hand less than a set on the turn like 90% of the time (meaning that he's rarely raising/calling a 3-bet with less than a flush because people like him don't seem to raise the turn with like a pair with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

ok, that's confusing, but I'm trying to say... 3-betting usually folds out everything but flushes (feel free to argue, you might be right) and now we're left with examining how flush holds up. Surely as the flush gets lower you should 3-bet less often, and for me, T9hh is right on the cusp of when you should just call.

When playing ridiculously deep (281bbs deep here) you are going to lose a lot of money by trying to get all-in with hands that you would try to get all-in if you had 100bbs. Protecting all these big blinds is more important than maximizing against a small portion of his range (lower flushes) in spots where it's very obvious what you have. He knows you have a flush, and he gets to play almost perfectly against your hand if he has a higher flush and thus can manage to bloat the pot from 12.5bbs on the turn to almost 600bbs on the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I'm not sure why there's any discussion here. Bet/call turn, c/c river, done. 3-betting turn is awful IMHO. Edit: even against far bigger idiots than this guy.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Casper: You say that he will only shove higher flushes, but he'll call with lower flushes because he's a donkey. If he's a donkey, why wouldn't he shove lower flushes? In fact, if he thinks his lower flush is good, isn't he more likely to value shove it than to call down with it? I think you contradicted yourself there.

That said, I agree with Keyser.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Keyser,

I hear ya, but...

ok, take out the set hands...8J/AJ/A8/A4/lower flushes/higher flushes make up his range, right? Do you really think THIS villain is folding to a smallish 3bet turn? If you do, then make your 3bet smaller to increase his calling percentage...make it like 90, and then your river bet will be like 105 or something...even with your range, I believe this is the most EV line- though I admit it is pretty thin.

The range you are putting him on and the line you want to take just don't make sense...He is NEVER going to bet the river with a smaller flush or a weaker made hand, but you want to ch/c the river? I think that line is burning money by 1)not getting value out of the weaker part of his range, and 2)getting taken to value-town by hands that have us crushed.

I think raise turn/VB river>>call turn/bet river>>>>>>call turn/ch-c river.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]

Button: $141.14


[/ QUOTE ]

His stacksize makes this a lot simpler than you guys are making it out to be.

3bet the turn to an amount that discourages AhX or sets odds to profitably call you. Never fold after 3betting.

Against this player with this stack size, not getting max value here is really unacceptable.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Button: $141.14


[/ QUOTE ]

His stacksize makes this a lot simpler than you guys are making it out to be.

3bet the turn to an amount that discourages AhX or sets odds to profitably call you. Never fold after 3betting.

Against this player with this stack size, not getting max value here is really unacceptable.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, UTG+1: $986

:-)

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Villain is UTG+1. We hella deep.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

as,
i believe the villan in question is UTG+1

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button folds

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

i read good

my b

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

lollll im the man

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

my goodness, I really think ch/c river is awful.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.


I suggest 3betting the turn to an amount that makes calling w/ AhX/set unprofitable.

Fold if he raises.

If he calls:

a) make a smallish valuebet on a safe river
b) on a heart river, c/f
c) bet/fold a river that pairs the board

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

my brain is starting to hurt a little but I'll try to answer your questions.


[ QUOTE ]
Keyser,

I hear ya, but...

ok, take out the set hands...8J/AJ/A8/A4/lower flushes/higher flushes make up his range, right? Do you really think THIS villain is folding to a smallish 3bet turn? If you do, then make your 3bet smaller to increase his calling percentage...make it like 90, and then your river bet will be like 105 or something...even with your range, I believe this is the most EV line- though I admit it is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose this is fine it's just too thin, imo. Of course villain can have two pair hands but I see flushes way more when the action goes like this (bet in a multiway pot, 2 callers, PRF bets again despite the obvious flush getting there, then a raise).

It also opens you up to making a huge mistake if he reacts in a way that we don't expect (i.e. he 4-bets a lower flush).

[ QUOTE ]
The range you are putting him on and the line you want to take just don't make sense...He is NEVER going to bet the river with a smaller flush or a weaker made hand, but you want to ch/c the river? I think that line is burning money by 1)not getting value out of the weaker part of his range, and 2)getting taken to value-town by hands that have us crushed.

I think raise turn/VB river>>call turn/bet river>>>>>>call turn/ch-c river.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, I agree with FGators about leading the river, although I don't know if I take that line at the tables. I think villain value bets lower flushes on the river close to 100%, so I disagree with that. He might also value-bet two pair hands (which are hands that in general he's not calling a 3-bet/big river bet with, although that is debatable as well).


This hand gets really murky when we're dealing with a donk, but one thing I can say with full confidence is that if we are playing a very good TAG we should never be 3-betting the turn, and a the EV of c/c the river vs. leading the river is very close since TAGs will bet lower flushes and will probably bet two pair hands as well (but fold them to a raise).

lastly, I edited this question into my last post so you might've missed it, and I think it's pretty important: does a donkified villain ever get all-in with a 7 high flush here? And if he is shoving it, how confident are you now about 3-bet/folding?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just so damn dangerous to say "the pot is only 12.5bbs and there's 600bbs left to play, but we're ahead of his range so lets put lots of monies in when 4 higher flushes beat us." I might just be being a nit about this, I dunno.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
It also opens you up to making a huge mistake if he reacts in a way that we don't expect (i.e. he 4-bets a lower flush).

[/ QUOTE ]

This! Casper, I think you are assuming way too much about Villan's tendencies with lower flushes. By becoming passive in this deep situation, we are able to save ourselves from making a huge mistake.

Why do you think the "donkey" will only shove better flushes?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok now that i've read the hand w/o my clownhat on..

We are ahead of villains range, OOP, and are playing against a player who is giving us TONS of value by calling with worse hands but giving us little-to-no value by bluffing or valuebetting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just so damn dangerous to say "the pot is only 12.5bbs and there's 600bbs left to play, but we're ahead of his range so lets put lots of monies in when 4 higher flushes beat us." I might just be being a nit about this, I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

See the thing is, we're not putting a lot of money in.

We're losing what, like 50-70bb's when we are beat? If he is tricky he will just call the turn 3bet with the nuts and extract another river bet.

Meanwhile, we are making him define his hand so we dont lose a lot og money if he has us beat, making him play unprofitably with a draw, and getting max value out of worse flushes/worse hands.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

again, how confident are you he doesn't 4-bet a smaller flush? And why would you want to define your own so well while this deep?

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
my goodness, I really think ch/c river is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I kinda like to control the pot when I have a highly marginal hand. Big pots for big hands, and all that. You may play differently and be happy to gamble hundreds of BB, or may somehow believe that your hand is not highly marginal, in which case there is nothing else I can say.

Edit: We have 30 hands on Villain. Even if we had 1000s of hands his stats aren't all that donkish and even huge idiots realize when there is a flush on the board. You might also not realize that this type of player will often play any 2 suited cards and there are WAY more combos that are ahead of us than we beat. OK, I'm done.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
again, how confident are you he doesn't 4-bet a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty confident. If he 4bets a lower flush, he is essentially turning his hand into a bluff and thats the downside of taking our line.


[ QUOTE ]
And why would you want to define your own so well while this deep?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he can't handread and will still play poorly with a large number of hands in his range.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. FGators, despite being annoying as hell, was totally right imo. Unless you have some specific history or something that orange surely would've mentioned, this is always a flush. Only question is whether ours is higher.

PS, lock in 5..4...

[/ QUOTE ]

[censored] i agree with FGators, questioning myself lol

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Keyser, (I don't want to quote because then it gets forever long)

I think villain very very very rarely 4bets lower flushes or anything that beats us.

Also, I dont understand why you think this villain- who by his pf stats indicates he likes to call (yes its preflop, and yes its only 30 hands)- would rather BET than call??? I guess thats where our thought process diverges.

I agree that 3betting a TAG on the turn sucks.

As for your question- No, I do not think even a donk will get it all in here without a higher flush...but we are not trying to get it in...I am trying to maximize value from what I percieve as a wide enough range.

FWIW, this really just comes down to what you said earlier about 9Thh being just under the line you would raise with....for me it is just barely above the line....so that and then our ideas of villains betting/calling frequency is the base of our disagreement.

Albedoa, I think becoming passive in this hand is allowing villain to control the size of the pot with hands that we beat, and to bet when we are beaten. This would obviously be a totally different scenario if we were IP.

Pineapple, I dont know why you got so upset- I definitely understand why most of the people voicing their opinion are just calling the turn, but I do not agree with ch/c the river for reasons I already stated. Since you believe that his range is only flushes, and since there are more flush combos that beat us than we beat, I believe that if you check the river you should fold to his bet.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Similarish hand here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=10895796

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, this really just comes down to what you said earlier about 9Thh being just under the line you would raise with....for me it is just barely above the line....so that and then our ideas of villains betting/calling frequency is the base of our disagreement.

[/ QUOTE ]

this looks like a good statement to end on. good discussion :-)

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

I think the turn min-raise does not always equal flush, but that the turn 3X raise (ikes example) almost always does.

BTW, I really am not trying to sound like I am totally right here (I think pineapple got that idea??)...I just think it is a very interesting spot worthy of some discussion on ranges, patterns, etc.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since you believe that his range is only flushes, and since there are more flush combos that beat us than we beat, I believe that if you check the river you should fold to his bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I lied, I peeked. Odds and all that, and every now and then he'll do something retarded when we show weakness. The key thing IMHO is to control the pot size. But I'm certainly not folding to any reasonable-size river bet.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

Very similar hand, villain is 30/10/2:

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $439
CO: $638.50
Button: $1980
SB: $1786.50
Hero: $3447.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($20, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $20</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($60, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $55</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $245</font>, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($550, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $345</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $1240
<font color="#ffffff">SB Shows As 5s</font>

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

ike, do you think that a min raise is the same as any raise on this turn? (serious question)

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

I think the minraise is a pretty big difference between the two, and the river call seems a bit thin but i dont play 5/10 obv.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
ike, do you think that a min raise is the same as any raise on this turn? (serious question)

[/ QUOTE ]
its so villain dep and we don't have a anything close to a read to tell if its diff. But the short and long of it is the guy is repping a flush. It may be a horrible two pair or lower flush, but our 3betting is going to fold out a lot of hands we want around.

btw, the only reason i called the river was b/c i thought he could have a straight or had a straight draw that just hit trip 6s... also my image is always beyond terrible

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

What is it with SSNL and people being afraid to play deep? Seriously, we have a read that villain is "loose and semi active". He's 40/14 overall, doesn't seem good and is "definitely active". How can you possibly think call turn, check-call river is the line that gets us the most value? Based on our read, we have villain's range well beat on the turn. Maybe not crushed, but we're certainly ahead here. 3-ball the turn to $140ish, fold to a shove, and shove (or maybe just VB) a safe river if he calls. You cannot be afraid to lose 280 BBs when you've got a villain like this who'll be giving you the same 280 BBs far more often.

Re: Orange\'s flush hand- NO FLAMING
 

[ QUOTE ]
Based on our read, we have villain's range well beat on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

1.) LOL
2.) That's not the issue.