Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

MP3 has 34.4/2.86/0.9 - 70 hands

Full Tilt 0.25/0.5 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG (poster) calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (17.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ??.

I have a huge draw on the turn, and I raise to make sure I get paid off big if I hit. I have effectively, 9 cards to make my flush, 3 Ts to make a gutshot straight, and I would assign 2 outs for my overs. Based on MP3's aggression on the turn, he could have a set or AJ.

Critics?

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

The turn cap is a little weak when someone in front of you folds because you aren't getting odds anymore and no one is folding.

River call would be bad, what do you beat? Q high?

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

yes, i'd like to critique. you keep betting and raising but we don't have anything. usually you're supposed to wait until we have something to bet and raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

I don't understand ... is it 4 players or 3 on the turn?? I think the converter botched it up ... if it's only three players, than the turn play is very bad. But assume it's 4 players to the turn.

First, I wouldn't give even two outs to the overs. A King Or Queen completes bunch of straights, you may be dominated, and you may be against a made set.
I'd say you got 12 solid outs, so you are roughly 25% to win on the river, so there is no equity edge against 3 villains. When the button folded, you cap is actually a negative equity play - you are paying 33%, but will win only 25%.

Fold river.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
yes, i'd like to critique. you keep betting and raising but we don't have anything. usually you're supposed to wait until we have something to bet and raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have a huge draw on the turn, and I raise to make sure I get paid off big if I hit. I have effectively, 9 cards to make my flush, 3 Ts to make a gutshot straight, and I would assign 2 outs for my overs. Based on MP3's aggression on the turn, he could have a set or AJ.

Critics?

[/ QUOTE ]

Normal villains does not 3-bet AJ on this board. Anyway you need ~23outs to cap. Ur flush outs may be tainted too. No way you can cap.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

Turn cap is pretty bad imo.

I don't know why you put ?? on the river decision. You have nothing. With this action you won't win 1 in 50 with K high, let alone 1 in 18.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
River: (17.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ??.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any question what you're doing at this point in the hand?

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

i think one more raise is in order, frankly, for fold equity.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

I agree that capping turn is pretty horrible and the river is obviously instafold.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River: (17.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero ??.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there any question what you're doing at this point in the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]


Yea, seriously man. There is no question - you're 3betting this river all day and all night long. You aren't winning with K-high, right? And you aren't winning with a fold, right? Your ONLY real shot at winning this fat pot, is to 3bet this. You will get him to fold about 12-15% of the time in this spot, and given the juicy pot, it's an easy play to make. The problem is, most people are too scared to fire off this last 3bet here, and those are the long-term losers. Never give up.










Or you could fold. Yeah, fold is good too.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

The only reason to raise turn is to fold K3 or K9 and I don't think that is a large enough part of MP3s range to matter... besides any K or Q over card is tainted from str8 draws so I would just call turn.

I wouldnt even consider river calling the river WTF?

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

wow ... this is like the NC hand where somebody raised and capped 9 high and won ...

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 has 34.4/2.86/0.9
MP3 bets ... then
MP3 bets ... MP3 3-bets ... then Button folds
then Hero caps


[/ QUOTE ]
and then hero has a question about the river when he has nothing except a banana cream donut in his mouth [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

OP - what exactly do you think your "OUTS" are in this situation?

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
he has nothing except a banana cream donut in his mouth

[/ QUOTE ]

PB, you are an endless source of colorful metaphors [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he has nothing except a banana cream donut in his mouth

[/ QUOTE ]

PB, you are an endless source of colorful metaphors [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah ... i'm all about donuts right now ... I just got off the streetcar and this big giant fat guy was getting on and had a whole bag of them and a bunch of jelly all over his shirt and frosting on his chin

for some reason - i thought about poker when I saw him [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

Pointblank, actually my main question is about the cap on the turn.

My main quesion here is have I evaluated my outs correctly on the turn? Cos I see that I have a pretty strong draw, hence am fattening the pot first in case I hit my outers on the river. But from these feedback, seems like having only HU is not giving me enuff equity to raise that much.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

please call turn (we are behind; no equity to raise), and fold river. Mp3 has clearly stated that he doesn't care if we like our hand or not. He's never folding.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pointblank, actually my main question is about the cap on the turn.

My main quesion here is have I evaluated my outs correctly on the turn? Cos I see that I have a pretty strong draw, hence am fattening the pot first in case I hit my outers on the river. But from these feedback, seems like having only HU is not giving me enuff equity to raise that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

mav, if you really believe this, then you should really do the calcs yourself, not just say "It seems like..." In other words, you will only improve if you work on these things now. So let's have it!

Buzz

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pointblank, actually my main question is about the cap on the turn.

My main quesion here is have I evaluated my outs correctly on the turn? Cos I see that I have a pretty strong draw, hence am fattening the pot first in case I hit my outers on the river. But from these feedback, seems like having only HU is not giving me enuff equity to raise that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

as stated before

what do you think your outs are in this situation ... list all (in this thread) and give weight (ie. likelyhood of those outs being 'good')

you can come to your own conclusion, based on your own work ...

just eye-balling and raising because you have a 'huge draw' (based only on your two cards) isn't the way to go

so - yeah ... list them all and give them "weight" then calculate ... and let people tell you what they think of you 'range'

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pointblank, actually my main question is about the cap on the turn.

My main quesion here is have I evaluated my outs correctly on the turn? Cos I see that I have a pretty strong draw, hence am fattening the pot first in case I hit my outers on the river. But from these feedback, seems like having only HU is not giving me enuff equity to raise that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main thing to realize on the turn is when the guy in front of you folds you no are no longer going to hit your draw enough to make up for the times you pump this pot and miss so stop raising.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

I shall attempt to calculate... first time ever. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

A) MP3's hand: Set

we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -&gt; I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop


B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades)

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ AK
I choose to discount these, as no aggression from MP3

In totality, there are 19.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (4BB) was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn,
and the river was checked down to simplify things.

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (14.50BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-4BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(14.5BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-4BB)
= 1.50BB

Is my reasoning rite? I could have gotten my card ranges wrong, but how about my calculation method? I tried to reference the way Mr Wookie worked to evaluate a Clarkmeister web page . But I think things are a bit different as I am still drawing and there is the river to go.

I believe a lot of my workings are erroroneous, but I'm willing to take all of you as my teachers... I want to IMPROVE!!!

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I shall attempt to calculate... first time ever. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

A) MP3's hand: Set

we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -&gt; I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop


B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades)

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ AK
I choose to discount these, as no aggression from MP3

In totality, there are 19.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (4BB) was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn,
and the river was checked down to simplify things.

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (14.50BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-4BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(14.5BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-4BB)
= 1.50BB

Is my reasoning rite? I could have gotten my card ranges wrong, but how about my calculation method? I tried to reference the way Mr Wookie worked to evaluate a Clarkmeister web page . But I think things are a bit different as I am still drawing and there is the river to go.

I believe a lot of my workings are erroroneous, but I'm willing to take all of you as my teachers... I want to IMPROVE!!!

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I love these ambitious posts. Unfortunately you have made a misstake. To decide whether capping is better it is not enough to see that you have +EV on the entire hand. You obviously have that since the pot is so large.

You either have to compare the cap line to the call line, or (which is simpler) calculate ur EV on just that last bet:

EV = (7.5/19.5) * (0.217) * (1BB) + (7.5/19.5) * (1-0.217) * (-1BB) + (12/19.5)*(0.348)*(1BB) + (12/19.5)*(1-0.348)*(-1BB)= -xxx

(don't have a calculator)

So Ur EV on the cap is negative!

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
(don't have a calculator)

[/ QUOTE ]

That thing in front of your face isn't just for Internets anymore. Hint: check under "Accessories".

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

also mav - rick ...

don't just simply calculate your odds by total hands of each type ... you have to give weight to the type of hand and this guy's betting pattern (of course this makes calculations much harder) ...

like - AJ ... you have a number of combos of this hand - but really, the likelihood of this being AJ is not accurately describe by hand combos (of course "likelihoods" could change depending on previous actions and showdowns)

but thinking this is AJ 12 times vs a set 9 times ... is creating maths that support your decision

you also forgot to include two pair

IMO this is a set 70% of the time, vs two pair 20%, vs AJ 10% ... or other such random stats [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

So Pointblank and Sushi, I would like to verify that my formula set up is correct? But only the assigning of hand range is not as accurate? I'll refine the range of hands when I have the time later.

Thanks for the advice guys.

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So Pointblank and Sushi, I would like to verify that my formula set up is correct? But only the assigning of hand range is not as accurate? I'll refine the range of hands when I have the time later.

Thanks for the advice guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't look over the 'maths' ... just the assigning of hand values (just don't think about combos, think likeihood and give weight ... at that point calculations become a nit fest)

good work though ...

whether someone aggrees with your range or not, it makes you think about more than just your hand (and that can never be bad)

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

<font color="purple"> WARNING: SUPER LONG POST AND LOTS OF MATH </font>

A) MP3's hand: Set
we would win when we hit our flush or straight:

7 flush cards. However this has to be discounted as cards such as 9 and 3 hearts would give MP3 a fullhouse.

Thus discounted to 7 flush cards

3 Ts to form a straight (T of spades is included in the flush outs)

Therefore, Total 10 outs (21.7% to hit outers on river)

So villian's chances of holding a set:
Villians pocket pair could be
1) 99 - 3 ways to form 99
2) 33 - 3 ways to form 33
3) JJ - 3 ways to form JJ -&gt; I discount to 1.5, given he didn't raise pre-flop
Total: 3+3+1.5 = 7.5 ways

B) MP3's hand: AJ

With our overs, we can add
3 outs for K
3 outs for Q

1) AJ - 12 ways to form AJ (less J spades). I would discount to only 3 ways.
Total: 3 ways

MP3's hand: AA, KK, QQ, AK
I choose to exclude these, as no aggression from MP3

C) MP3's hand: 9J

With MP3’s 2 pairs,
we would win when we hit our flush or straight, so 8+3 = 11 outs.
Instead of 9 flush outs, I only use 8, cos 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have given him a full house.

1) 9J – 9 ways
Total: discount to 2 ways

In totality, there are (2+3+7.5) = 12.5 hands MP3 could be holding, and we have to hit our flush or straight or overs to beat him.

So let's see if my turn cap (1BB), as sushi has corrected me, was worth it. Let's assume I cap on the turn, and the river was checked down to simplify things.

He holds set -&gt; (7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (1BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-1BB)
He holds AJ -&gt; (3/12.5) * (0.348) * (1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-1BB)
He holds J9 -&gt; (2/12.5) * (0.239) * (1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-1BB)
Total EV = -0.497BB
So yah, it’s a bad cap.

But I’m curious to know the comparison of aggregate EVs between if I had just called his bet on the turn, and if I had capped the turn, and what would be the implied pot at the river.

<u>Calculations if I had just called his turn bet</u>
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (5.5+1+4BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-2BB)
= 0.43

B) MP3's hand: AJ
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (3/12.5) * (0.348) * (5.5+1+1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-2BB)
= 0.31

C) MP3's hand: 9J
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
EV = (2/12.5) * (0.239) * (5.5+1+1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-2BB)
= 0.04

Total EV= 0.43 + 0.31 + 0.04 =<font color="blue"> 0.78BB </font>

<u>Calculations if I had capped the turn</u>
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.
(7.5/12.5) * (0.217) * (5.5+4+4BB) + (7.5/12.5) * (1-0.217) * (-5BB)
= -0.59

B) MP3's hand: AJ
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.

(3/12.5) * (0.348) * (5.5+4+1BB) + (3/12.5) * (1-0.348) * (-5BB)
= 0.09

C) MP3's hand: 9J
Assume it’s a bet call river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 1 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss.

(2/12.5) * (0.239) * (5.5+4+1BB) + (2/12.5) * (1-0.239) * (-5BB)
= -0.21

Total EV= -0.59 + 0.09 - 0.21 = <font color="blue"> -0.70BB </font>

Hmm… so indeed a very bad choice to cap the turn.

Thanks for those who read thru this... it must be very painful and longwinded. But I have learnt something from this, I hope you have too!

Re: Raise and cap on the turn with overcards, gutshot and flush draw?
 

good work --&gt; comments

your possible actions should be:
you hit K or Q ... you are calling (your hand is not strong enough to raise)
you hit flush ... raise ... if flush and pairs board and dude still leads out (I might be concern and raise/fold ... but I might need a better read to do that)
you hit straight ... you raise
UI ... you fold

[ QUOTE ]
A) MP3's hand: Set
Assume it’s a capped river when I hit (ie I’ll win an additional 4 BB from MP3), but a crying river call when I miss

[/ QUOTE ]
**don't assue the river is capped when you opponent is passive; assume you get 1.5-2.5 big bets on the end.
any card that has him beat will look bad so it's very likely he'll check and call (that's what they do)
**never make a 'crying call' ... you have nothing dude, WTF!