136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

For those who missed last year:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=1#Post8627485

final stats of the 06-07 season

all system plays went 221-222 +34.09 units

posted plays went 101-125 +2.11 units


I don't expect to do as good this year as last because of pinny being gone, but the softness of the early season lines will make me feel better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] All plays are risk 1 unit on dogs and to win 1 unit on the rare favorite. I might add a couple 2 units plays here and there, but that's it.

Good luck if you're joining in...

First plays will be this Saturday.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I'll tail this year. And won't be offering any advice :x

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I was hoping you would continue this system again this year. Good luck. I'm working on a similar NHL 1st Period system as well. I'll be interested to see if we have similar bets.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

Assuming no crazy line movement happens from now until gametime, there will be no saturday plays.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

anyone remember what time last year 5dimes put the 1p lines up?

or do i need to move money to TheGreek/VIP

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

nevermind guess they're just slow compared to thegreek

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I don't see any winnerz yet. Are there even games yet?

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

i only saw one bet so far anaheim o1.5 +115 1p

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

regular season starts today, excluding 2 real games they played in London over the weekend

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

wow these lines suck. I remember much juicer lines last year, where are the +140's and +150's?

If you have pinny the ana/ott o1.5 at +107 above is good, but will not be an offical play since I don't have pinny and the best I can get is EV.

the only official play I see is:

dal/cdo o1.5 -105

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
i only saw one bet so far anaheim o1.5 +115 1p

[/ QUOTE ]

was this available at the square books or pinny?

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i only saw one bet so far anaheim o1.5 +115 1p

[/ QUOTE ]

was this available at the square books or pinny?

[/ QUOTE ]

i only checked thegreek/5dimes

this morning (~8am eastern) was +110 at the greek, the line opened at +115 on 5dimes, after i bet it dropped to +105 (was a small bet too $100)

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

Do you bet on + odds no matter what the game is?

I see the under 1.5 for tomorrows OTT/TOR game is +125. Obv good odds, but they are both high scoring teams.

Does it matter what teams are playing? Just bet any + odds for the over or under?

There's also a +105 on the under and a +110 on the over for tomorrow that I see.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

This is from the thread I linked to in the OP. Read it if you wanna get the general idea. I have tweaked the numbers a little, but this should give you an idea.

Generally, we will be taking only +odds, however for certain over 1.5 totals we will lay odds (up to a maximum of -117). We will NEVER lay odds on a under 1.5 total, no matter what the teams.

about the ott/tor game @ +125 that is very borderline and I am still on the fence about it.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

Well yeah, I definitely read through your thread before asking that. I just wanted to know if you dropped games for teams that are obviously going to score more than 1 goal in the first period.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/3/07

dal/cdo o1.5 -105 LOSE

07-08 totals

0-1 -1.05 units

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/4/07

njd/tbl o1.5 +100
chi/min o1.5 +107
phi/cal o1.5 -105

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/4/07

njd/tbl o1.5 +100 LOSE
chi/min o1.5 +107 LOSE
phi/cal o1.5 -105 WIN

[/ QUOTE ]

1-2 -1 unit

07-08 totals 1-3 -2.05 units

grr bad start

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/5/07

ana/cbj o1.5 +105
car/pit u1.5 +126
bos/dal o1.5 +105
sjs/van o1.5 +114

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

If it's possible please post a bit earlier, tough to get the bets in with 3 min margin between post and gamestart =)

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

yeah sorry. Well didn't matter today went 1-1 on the two 7:00 p.m. games

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/5/07

ana/cbj o1.5 +105 WIN
car/pit u1.5 +126 LOSE
bos/dal o1.5 +105 LOSE
sjs/van o1.5 +114 WIN

[/ QUOTE ]

2-2 +.19 units

07-08 totals 3-5 -1.86 units

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

why doesn't bodog have 1st period lines??

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/6/07

njd/fla o1.5 +110
dal/nsh o1.5 +110
bos/phx o1.5 +105
cbj/min o1.5 +112
van/cal o1.5 +115

damn, don't know why so many overs

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/6/07

njd/fla o1.5 +110
dal/nsh o1.5 +110
bos/phx o1.5 +105
cbj/min o1.5 +112
van/cal o1.5 +115

damn, don't know why so many overs

[/ QUOTE ]

Pinny obviously has something in mind.

Now lets just sit back and hope the ref's call every single ticky tack hook and hold so we can ride the powerplay to profits [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]

Pinny obviously has something in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

The good news is that Pinny is only best priced on two of the five.

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
why doesn't bodog have 1st period lines??

[/ QUOTE ]

They do, check the props.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/6/07

njd/fla o1.5 +110 WIN
dal/nsh o1.5 +110 LOSE
bos/phx o1.5 +105 WIN
cbj/min o1.5 +112 WIN
van/cal o1.5 +115 LOSE



[/ QUOTE ]

3-2 +1.27 units

07-08 totals 6-7 -0.59 units

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/7/07

sjs/col o1.5 +100

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/7/07

sjs/col o1.5 +100 WIN

[/ QUOTE ]

1-0 +1 unit

07-08 totals 7-7 +0.41 units

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/8/07

njd/ott o1.5 +112
edm/det o1.5 +101

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
plays for 10/8/07

njd/ott o1.5 +112 (officially +113) WIN
edm/det o1.5 +101 WIN

[/ QUOTE ]

actually got +113 on the ottawa game, hate to change it after the game has already won, but it's only 1c [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2-0 +2.14 units

07-08 totals 9-7 +2.55 units

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

no plays for tuesday 10/9/07

Anyone who bet hockey last year and knows a little bit more about handicapping hockey then I do want to comment on why the under 1.5's for the 1st period are getting such crappy lines compared to last year? Has there been some kind of fundamental change that I missed?

Is it because a disproportionate amount of games have gone under the total for the full game so far this season?

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I know little about hockey, but the method I use to value period totals based on the full game total shows the listed total odds (over/under) to be well within reason. Doesn't help that some shops (i.e. CRIS) deal a 30 cent line on these.

Only had two bets so far this year, one of which is o1.5 -110 in the 1st period tonight. Really just waiting for the teams to show what their worth, as I'm sure early season lines aren't as efficient as they will be later in the year.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

plays for 10/10/07

redwings o1.5 +110
wild o1.5 +120
blackhawks o1.5 +105
ducks o1.5 +105

and the barrage of over plays continue. Have had just one under play the whole season.

Might be more plays tomorrow.

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

139 ... are you just taking +ve vig value this year is there some capping of individual teams?

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I am trying to just take the +odds after what happened last year when I ended up overanalyzing the plays. When more data becomes available I will however start adjusting the numbers a little... BEWARE when I start doing that lol

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

I'm not sure I'd call those coin flips, but good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

1369,

Do you think that 1st team to score would be closer to a true flip than the o1.5?

Re: 136913691369\'s 2007-2008 NHL 1st period totals system
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I'd call those coin flips, but good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I have over 2500 games of data going back to the 05-06 season. I don't have this data in front of me because I am not home at the moment, but it came out to about 53% over 1.5's, 47% under 1.5's. That's pretty close to a coin flip in my eyes.

edit: I view them to be coinflips like football/basketball spreads only thing is they are giving me on average +110 instead of me giving them +110.

Also, note my record form last year 221-222. Pretty close to 50% with a somewhat decent sample size.