Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

YTD: 20-26-1, -1.678 units

I did finish up for the year last year with about a 53% winning percentage, so you can probably trust my picks to be very slightly +EV as long as you're not taking bad prices, even with the losing record this year. Also, my 2 unit and larger picks have been running very hot this season.

On to the picks:

Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Really like Air Force here. Or to be more exact, really like betting against Navy. The Middies are still cruising off their reputation last year, but they're nowhere near as good. They only have 3 starters back on defense, and that defense has been miserable this year, giving up 449 yards and 34 points per game vs. Temple, Rutgers, Ball State, and Duke. They're not improving either as they had their worst performance against the Blue Devils last week, giving up 500 yards in a 46-43 victory.

Against three opponents significantly worse than Air Force this year, Navy has won by 11, lost by 3, and won by 3. Meanwhile, Air Force has played surprisingly well. They beat Utah on the road and TCU at home (both much better teams than Navy) before getting blown out by BYU. Based largely on the performance this season, Sagarin says Air Force should be a 2 point favorite, even on the road.

Does Navy at least have favorable matchups to counteract this edge? Not really. It's true that Navy's pass defense has given up a lot more yards than their run defense and Air Force is a running team. However, the run defense has still been plenty bad, giving up 262 yards to Ball State and 210 to Rutgers and ranking 70th in the country despite a weakj schedule.

On the other side of the ball, the matchups are very favorable for Air Force. Navy runs the ball better and passes it worse than anyone in FCS, and run defense has been a strength for Air Force. They rank 28th in the country giving up less than 100 yards per game and their only bad game (against BYU) happened because the Cougars tore them up through the air, passing for 8.9 YPA and only rushing for 3.6 YPA. All in all, I'd say that the matchups are slightly favorable for Air Force and should make them more of a favorite than power ratings would suggest. Not only do I think the wrong team is getting the points here, I think Air Force should probably be favored by 4-6 points. The only reason this is a 2 unit play and not a larger one is that Air Force is kind of an unknown quantity this early in the year, having 1 bad performance after 2 bad ones when they weren't projected to have a very good season, and because I don't trust my mid-major predictions as much as I do for the major conferences I follow more closely.

Note: More picks will be coming later, but I'm not going to list them until I get them completely matched on Matchbook. There's one I've been talking about quite a bit in the early lines thread that will definitely be my POTW though.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

Anyway, if you use 3 points for home advantage, Sagarin has the Mountaineers favored by 6.5 here, so the line wouldn't appear to be too far off. However, I think this is a case where using a constant for home advantage is a mistake. USF is 34-8 at home and 15-21 away SU the last 7 years and 16-10 ATS at home vs. 17-14 ATS away over the same period. This is a team that gets more out of their crowd than most. Factor in that it's a night game and possibly USF's most important home game ever, and the fans and players are going to be jacked up. I think it was MyTurn who had research to show that home advantage means more for closely matched teams, especially slight dogs, and with all those factors working together, home advantage is going to be worth more like 5 points. It would be even higher, but WVU tends to play well on the road and covers spreads there better than they do at home.

Meanwhile, the matchups are good for USF too. Their defense has been fantastic against both the run and the pass this year which is more important than you think. While WVU tends to run the ball a lot when able, this is mainly due to the fact that they're often leading and other teams can't stop them. They actually rank 10th in passing efficiency, and Pat White is more than capable as a pocket passer if the running game bogs down. Well, I think it will and when it does, USF should be able to stop the pass too. Last year, with both Slaton and White in the lineup, USF held the Mountaineers to 3.6 ypc and return 7 starters on that side of the ball this year. Their losses in the linebacking corps should be countered by WVU's losses on the O-line and the talent should be about even to where it was last year on that side of the ball.

On the other side of the ball, USF returns 9 starters from last year's team including QB Matt Grothe and 3 of the top 3 receivers. That passing attack was 22/30 for 279 vs. West Virginia last year, and should enjoy similar success this game as the Mountaineer secondary has continued to look vulnerable, giving up 245 yards to Western Michigan and 266 to Marshall.

Still the Bulls attack isn't really explosive and while they'll put up some points, they can't win a shootout. They did have a little bit of a break last season as West Virginia had just found out that they couldn't go to the Orange Bowl when Rutgers lost to Cincy and they had to be disappointed. The Mountaineers are still the better team and I expect them to pull out the victory. If I was forecasting, I'd say 28-27 which should leave a very healthy edge for the Bulls to cover the spread.

Oh, last but not least, this game definitely passes the BSP pundit test. I was playing some live 2/5 NL on Monday and people were talking about who'd win the national title and how good WVU was. (Note: I live thousands of miles from West Virginia.) I mentioned how they'd have a tough game against USF, and someone said "wonder what the line will be on that one". I said it was 7, and two people registered audible surprise that the line was that low. With how many "sharps" appear to be on USF, the only reason I can think of that the line's only dropped a half a point is either that there are squares already on WVU or that there are people betting WVU with the express intent of middling it when the squares get a hold of the line. I definitely like USF in this one.


<u>Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)</u>
Liked CFN's analysis here on the matchups favoring MSU, and just generally think that it will be hard for South Carolina to focus here after losing a huge game to LSU and losing their defensive leader for the season in Jasper Brinkley.

Also, Mississippi State's still a little bit underrated due to the opener vs. LSU where they turned it over 7 times. They look to be a legit Top 40 team and should be able to compete with the Gamecocks. I think the public's underrating the Bulldogs and will be happy to take SC giving less than 2 TDs.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Dr. Bob really moving the lines?

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<u>West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)</u>
This would be that POTW I was talking about. I didn't get the very best price here in terms of juice, but I'm legitimately scared that Dr. Bob's going to hop on this tomorrow and drive the line way down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is Dr. Bob really moving the lines?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. A lot. Hopefully he'll move it to 3-4 and I'll have an awesome middle.

BTW, I have basically all the plays that everyone else in the forum has this week, only at the very best price. Yay for me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also, Mississippi State's still a little bit underrated due to the opener vs. LSU where they turned it over 7 times. They look to be a legit Top 40 team and should be able to compete with the Gamecocks. I think the public's underrating the Bulldogs and will be happy to take SC giving less than 2 TDs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I basically agree with your analysis here, but if Mississippi State really is a legit Top 40 team, then the 2007 SEC is the best conference in the history of college football.

Also, they would win the ACC.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

OK, that's about enough conference homerism out of you, mister. Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all legitimate Top 40 teams and all are better than Mississippi State. Also, as good as the SEC is this year, the Pac-Ten is right there neck-and-neck with them. I'd only leave three teams from either league out of the Top 40. Arizona, WSU, and Stanford from the Pac and Auburn, Ole Miss, and Vandy from the SEC.

As for Dr. Bob, I can't see him moving the line all the way to 4, but it could easily go to 5.5 or 6 if he makes USF a best bet.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

<u>Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)</u>
FWIW, I'm not real confident on this pick and wouldn't necessarily advise anyone to follow it. The matchups actually favor Wisconsin a little bit as they have the run D to slow down the Spartans significantly.

The only reason I'm on MSU here is that the Badgers have had a lot of difficulty with worse opponents than MSU this year and the Spartans defense is good enough to keep this game low-scoring which will make it difficult for Wisconsin to cover any decent spread. This could easily be something like a 20-14 margin in favor of the Badgers.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Keep in mind that Michigan State, statistically, has a better offense AND defense than Wisconsin.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that Michigan State, statistically, has a better offense AND defense than Wisconsin.

[/ QUOTE ]


Tougher schedule for their wins and spectacular stats:
UAB, BG and ND
or
UNLV, Citadel and WSU???

Wow, does the Big10 suck or what??

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

<u>Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)</u>
Only favorite I'm on all week. Basically, Minnesota's defense is terrible and Ohio State will be able to score as many points as they like before they get bored and stop trying. On the year, Minnesota's given up 32, 35, 42, and 45 to the likes of Bowling Green, Miami(OH), FAU, and Purdue. They're not fluke points either as the Gophers' total defense ranks 119th. Even if the Buckeyes don't try to run the score up (which they won't with Tressel), they should be able to at least get into the 40s.

The Gophers have done fairly decently on offense, but switching from defenses struggling to find a pulse to OSU who's total defense ranks 3rd in the country is going to be quite a shock. Last year, OSU shut out the Gophers and Minnesota lost about the same talent above replacement level that the Buckeyes did. I really can't imagine how the Buckeyes don't blow out Minny here.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

iggy - hadn't noticed that line but I completely agree.
MIN's defense has been terrible. Probably only marignally better than NW but not by much I imagine.

23.5 is definitely a line worth taking the Buckeyes on for this game and I'm surprised it's not more even playing in MIN. OSU perhaps a tad undervalued somehow? I don't know but I think that struggle vs. AKR really left an impression on people. And their win at Wash which wasn't a blow-out but was still a decisive win on a long road-trip somehow left people more unimpressed than the performance deserved.

Maybe I'm just more impressed with their game vs. NW than I should be. But man they just looked freaking awesome.
OSU has a very real chance to cover this spread by halftime and maybe even by the 1st Q. They're just too much for the Gophers.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Thinking of NCSt +9 hosting LVL.
Thoughts?

Also, I'm with you on AF. Agree that Navy is living on their reputation. Watched parts of Navy/Duke on CSTV last week and both teams were just lousy. Navy just ain't that great.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking of NCSt +9 hosting LVL.
Thoughts?

Also, I'm with you on AF. Agree that Navy is living on their reputation. Watched parts of Navy/Duke on CSTV last week and both teams were just lousy. Navy just ain't that great.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am on Louisville at -8. I just don't see NC Sate having the weapons to exploit ULs crappy D.

Love Air Force and Ohio State as well

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Also, with a disclaimer that I am a UVA grad and fan so recognize that bias, I noticed that the UVA/Pitt line has dropped to 5.5. Pitt is starting their third QB of the season, which leads me to believe they will not be able to exploit UVA's weaknesses in the secondary. Also, UVA is way better at home than on the road, I really think they cover here easily,something along the lines of 26-14.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Last night I took a shot at 10/20 NL and lost a lot of my nfl betting roll when QQ&lt;A6 so I took my remaining cash and put it on WVA @ -6.5

I called DSI this morning to explain my tilt induced bet and they LOL'ed and asked if I want to make another deposit. I did.

Anyway, LETS GO WVA -6.5 ONE TIME PLEASE ONE TIME!!!!!

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

hey bills217 or anyone else-

Thoughts on Kentucky? Are they likely to take their foot off the gas when they get up on Fla. Atlantic, or do they let Woodson run up the score to pad his stats?

I got a little piece at 23.5 and am considering adding more.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

i like this game, but will play the 1st half line up to 13.5.... i think os getting up 2 tds by half should be easy.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

yeah, I was thinking MIN might be overvalued a tad also. Then I thought "How?" because they are only 1-3 with that win coming over Miami, OH and that was in OT.
And while Miami has had some injuries since then they have still proceeded to get absolutely pounded by Cincy and Colorado. The COL loss was 42-0 for crying out loud.
And this Miami team almost came back to BEAT Minnie.

But when you mention MIN's performance late last year and how that image has found a way to stick with them somewhat I think you are probably right.
People haven't been paying as much attention to MIN and perhaps think that struggles against teams like BG and Miami, etc are somehow justified or not indicative of how bad they are.


Regarding LOU - their defense has been so scary-bad that I just think practically anyone can keep up. MTSU kept up somewhat. SYR freaking beat them. LOU still shows very little ability to be able to tackle practically ANYONE.

They lost to freaking SYR at home. And regardless of whether they were taking them lightly or not the fact remains that SYR had been really awful before that. And LOU should have been somewhat pumped to bounce-back after a loss and play in front of their home-crowd.
Maybe it was still a hangover from an emotional game and they thought they could coast through SYR and whatever other excuses we want to throw in there but I just think they are simply not very good.
Something is really wrong in LOU-land and a motivated NCSt team should have a decent chance of putting some points on the board and hanging around in that game.


Anyway, I enjoy the picks and the write-ups and feel like I'm actually learning something about all this handicapping stuff so thanks for that.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

I feel like Louisville at -9 is a steal, but in no way am I man enough to play it.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Adding some first half plays:

<u>West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)</u>
It's the biggest home game in USF history, they're having their first ever sellout in the new stadium, and it's a night game on ESPN. If USF can't come out pumped up here, I don't know what to say. Honestly, this is the kind of game where if USF's not at least tied at the half, they're probably not going to cover.

<u>Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota[/b] (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
Minny's so bad that their best shot at covering (the game line) is to backdoor it after OSU lets their foot off the gas with Tressel not wanting to run up the score. Well, there's no way that Tressel lets up in the first half if the margin's 3 TDs or less.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

So now that my card's pretty much finalized (shouldn't have any more bets except halftimes), here's what I'm on this week in one convenient post:

POTW: West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)
Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)
Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)
Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

I figured that as I'm loading up on USF, I might as well add this:

West Virginia at USF +270 (Risk 1u to win 2.7u)

Put an offer out on Matchbook and figuring it would take a while to get matched, but someone got on it right away. Probably should have waited as +272 is already freely available.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Confession time: I've been using $100 units this year because that's why I did last year, but at no time this year has my sports BR had close to 100 units in it. So with 5.3 "units" riding tonight, let's just say:

GOGOGO USF!

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Minnesota may even be worse than Northwestern. But 23.5 points is a lot on the road for a young Ohio State team. I don't think Minnesota puts up more than 10 points but I'm unsure how Ohio State's Offense will perform in a hostile environment. I am leaning on Ohio State here, but not strongly. Michigan seems like better value going into Northwestern to me.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Adding some first half plays:

<u>West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)</u>
It's the biggest home game in USF history, they're having their first ever sellout in the new stadium, and it's a night game on ESPN. If USF can't come out pumped up here, I don't know what to say. Honestly, this is the kind of game where if USF's not at least tied at the half, they're probably not going to cover.

<u>Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota[/b] (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
Minny's so bad that their best shot at covering (the game line) is to backdoor it after OSU lets their foot off the gas with Tressel not wanting to run up the score. Well, there's no way that Tressel lets up in the first half if the margin's 3 TDs or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where the hell are you finding OSU -13.5? I'm seeing it at 23.5 everywhere.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Tom: First half plays!!!


Is MIN really worse than ILL and IND too??

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tom: First half plays!!!


Is MIN really worse than ILL and IND too??

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! Didn't see that. I'd be more tempted to take Ohio State -23.5 1st half than for the whole game! -13.5 is easy money!

Illinois is not a bad team. Indiana put up 21 more points on Akron than OSU did, I would definitely pick them over Minnesota and likely Northwestern. They may even beat Iowa, who knows. Minnesota and Northwestern can only beat each other unless something drastically changes.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
hey bills217 or anyone else-

Thoughts on Kentucky? Are they likely to take their foot off the gas when they get up on Fla. Atlantic, or do they let Woodson run up the score to pad his stats?

I got a little piece at 23.5 and am considering adding more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say 24 is pretty much accurate. Kentucky is banged up and I would think they will try to use Little/Dixon/Burton as little as possible, a) because they are all battling nagging injuries and b) because Kentucky has a short week with a huge showdown looming against South Carolina on Thursday night. Also, Kentucky's backup QB is pretty much awful if it becomes a blowout, and Rich Brooks has never been one to pour it on - against Eastern Ky./Kent, we were basically trying as hard as we could not to score near the end of the game.

Also, Florida Atlantic is not total filth in the Temple/Buffalo/Notre Dame (ha!) sense - they have done some good things this year.

So yeah, I guess if you made me bet I'd take Florida Atlantic - I'll be at the game so I might make an action junkie bet on them if I find a decent line, but no more than that. Total I think is close too - if you made me bet it I lean under but no big edge there.

Edit: I think there will continue to be some value on Kentucky unders in the near future because 1) They've gone over every game so far and everyone now knows how good Kentucky's offense is, and 2) Kentucky's defense is still widely perceived as a liability which could not be farther from the truth.

Edit again: Looks like the O/U has corrected from 68 to 65, I was thinking it was still 68 - maybe under did have some value there but it is dead on now.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Looks like it's gonna be hookers and blow on Iggy! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
So now that my card's pretty much finalized (shouldn't have any more bets except halftimes), here's what I'm on this week in one convenient post:

POTW: West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)
Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)
Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)
Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)

[/ QUOTE ]
You missed AF +3 and Mississippi State +14. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like it's gonna be hookers and blow on Iggy! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Bad, bad throw there. Game-killer...

...but a SF +6/U27.5-maker! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Well, I'm going to Vegas on Sunday so maybe it really should be hookers and blow time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyway, really happy about the way the game went tonight as I was confident the line was way off and it was. Tons of value on the Bulls. Finished 2-0 ATS, 1-0 ML on the night for a net of 6.64 units. (Initially forgot to take out commission when I posted ML.) Excellent start to the weekend.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

The ML was the play. Nice one iggy.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Minnesota may even be worse than Northwestern. But 23.5 points is a lot on the road for a young Ohio State team. I don't think Minnesota puts up more than 10 points but I'm unsure how Ohio State's Offense will perform in a hostile environment. I am leaning on Ohio State here, but not strongly. Michigan seems like better value going into Northwestern to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I would classify Minn as a hostile environment. I agree Mich is probably a better bet to road cover.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

On Michigan, I'm staying away mainly because of the letdown factor after the big win over Penn State. Those lines that look way too low in a look-ahead or let-down situation tend to be trap lines more often than not. Also, as a defensive team that's shown little offensive punch all season, Michigan will have more difficulty covering a fairly high number. I will say that Michigan should be less likely to let down than an average team though after how they got embarrassed by Appalachian State. If Lloyd Carr can't use that to convince his team to practice hard and come out prepared, he should be fired on the spot. Sagarin has Michigan favored by 10.5 FWIW.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

I asked this also in the 9/29 thread...

If you had to bet the house on either:
Oklahoma - 22 or
Cal/Oregon over 72

which one would you pick.
I need some advice here

TJL

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Can I choose "neither"? Oklahoma's in the exact same situation I described in the post above, playing a road game against a mediocre team the week before the biggest game of the season. It's a textbook look-ahead game and the Sooners could easily come up with a stinker en route to a narrow victory.

Meanwhile, Oregon/Cal is the national showcase game this week and everyone knows how good the offenses are. It's been hyped up on every college football preview show on television. Whatever the "fair line" is for this one, the squares should be pushing it a little higher. The only time you want to bet the over in a showcase that's supposed to be a shootout like that is if there's something about the pace that will throw people off (like the Lou/BSU Liberty Bowl a couple years back where they were throwing on every down), and if you do that, you need to get on it early.

I guess out of those two, if I actually had to pick one, I'd take the Cal/Oregon over since the teams are really evenly matched, and in my official prediction, I had the over covering in triple overtime, but if it stays in regulation, I think you're going to have a hard time. If I was going to bet the house on one game tomorrow, I'd take Air Force at +2.5.

Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
 

Didnt BYU beat Air Force?

Why is Air force such a strong play for you?

Thanks for the input

TJL