My JJ is under fire too
 

Three hours logged tonight - end result: - 4BBs! Not bad, not bad at all. After what seemed like 422 hands of off-suit 7-gappers, I finally got me some Jacks...

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero ???


UTG coming alive, donking here after my flop raise, is pretty scary, no? My straight draw now seems that it could be drawing for a chopped straight or drawing to a dead straight. Thoughts welcome...

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

:g:
easy fold with no [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] readraw.

UTG+1 understands that pumping draws is gOOt but accidently donked instead of c/r. UTG has anything from a flush to a straight to two pair to A8 but you are drawing very slim against their combined range.

Start worrying about what is going on on your other table.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

ughh ...

I fold the turn ... you have an overpair and a one card OESD (you can't value this at full outs, even in the flush wasn't on the board),

you have like 3outs (and you can't really pump them for max value when you hit) and zero chance of being ahead... IMO

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
ughh ...

I fold the turn ... you have an overpair and a one card OESD (you can't value this at full outs, even in the flush wasn't on the board),

you have like 3outs (and you can't really pump them for max value when you hit) and zero chance of being ahead... IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

QTF...double booyah

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

IMO you have to ask yourself if you are willing to call 4 behind here on the turn. Maybe 2 but maybe 4. So lets call it 3. That makes it 19:3 with 6 outs (we really can't count the heart outs)and we can't call the river UI. Pretty thin call I think. But not terrible.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

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Start worrying about what is going on on your other table.

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Are you referring to a particular table I was playing earlier - I mean, were you at a table with me tonight? Or are you just saying to move on from this hand and focus elsewhere?

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

no, I'm at work :S, I was just saying that in a situation like this I fold and don't think twice about it, sorry 'bout the confusion.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
no, I'm at work :S, it was just a saying, sorry for the confusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem - thanks for the thoughts on the hand.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

Fold. Your hand looks bad as is, then you still have plenty of people left to act.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

i fold the turn. dont think its really close.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
i fold the turn. dont think its really close.

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Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool - than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

I am not going to attempt to figure out the exact math here. I will get it wrong. With that said - if a set would win it for me or if my straight draw was definitely live, than I would have 10 outs to those hands, only 7 of which would be clean, right? So I guess I would say the pot would have to be giving me about 6.5-1 to draw?

But there is a lot more than that involved in this hand, and the math gets too complex for me here.

Bottom line is, it is pretty clear that I am behind, the pot is not enormous, and I am not even sure if I have ANY outs.

So I can't pass your math test, but I am pretty sure I made the right fold here.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

@ OP

The interesting spot in this hand is not whether or not you should fold the turn. Thats a pretty easy fold.

However, I think flop play should be discussed.

This looks like a spot where you cant really protect your hand in a huge pot on the flop. I think it should be considered to call the flop and then raise a safe turn. You will be facing the 3 players behind you with much worse odds compared to raising the flop.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool - than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too late for that since you've already opened your mouth. So the question is not whether you will be thought a fool, but whether you will choose to remain one.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool - than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too late for that since you've already opened your mouth. So the question is not whether you will be thought a fool, but whether you will choose to remain one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I use that quote, and then speak anyway. Silly me. Was my response that foolish? I pretty much just admitted that the math was beyond me. And if I am a fool, then doesn't the fact that I am thinking about hands and posting for advice, already show that I am trying to not remain one?

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daniel,

I think you should show us the math on whether or not calling the turn is correct.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool - than to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

[/ QUOTE ]

It's too late for that since you've already opened your mouth. So the question is not whether you will be thought a fool, but whether you will choose to remain one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I use that quote, and then speak anyway. Silly me. Was my response that foolish? I pretty much just admitted that the math was beyond me. And if I am a fool, then doesn't the fact that I am thinking about hands and posting for advice, already show that I am trying to not remain one?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not going to attempt to figure out the exact math here. I will get it wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here you are remaining a fool. "I won't try because I'll get it wrong."

There is much to gain from struggling with the math, even if you're not mathematically inclined (just ask any of the posters who Wookie has challenged to work out the math).

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
I am not going to attempt to figure out the exact math here. I will get it wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here you are remaining a fool. "I won't try because I'll get it wrong."

There is much to gain from struggling with the math, even if you're not mathematically inclined (just ask any of the posters who Wookie has challenged to work out the math).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, perhaps that was a dumb comment. But following that comment, I did make the attempt to work out what odds I could. But I do not know how to factor in the elements like the possible flush draw or made flushes here. If I were drawing to a definite winning hand, I could work out the math. But I knew that I was unaware of how the other factors in this hand affected my odds needed to draw.

I am willing to hear from someone who will show me how the flush factor or already made straight, affects my odds needed for a call here.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

PLZ POST RESULTS

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I were drawing to a definite winning hand, I could work out the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, start with this. Ignore the draws, and give us math!

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

Alright, this is what I got...

Assuming I am behind now, I have 10 outs to improve my hand:
J (2)
Q (4)
7 (4)

I have 46 unseen cards, giving me about 3.6-to-1 shot of improving.
At this point, when the action gets to me, I am getting 8-to-1 if I call the two bets here.
I have correct odds to call now.
But I don't really want to see a heart on the river, so I knock out 3 of my 10 outs. Now I have 7 outs, and I drop to 5.5-to-1 to make my hand. I still have the right odds so far.
I also don't love my last J as an out, since it makes a potential straight. I take off one more out. I am now about 6.5-to-1.
Even a non-heart Q is no guarantee, since (especially at .02/04) SB or BB could be sticking around with their KJ, trying to gutshot a win. But since I have two of the J's, a KJ hand is less likely.
I am also aware that UTG can very well 3bet this if I call, and UTG+1 can cap. Assuming it gets capped, I would now be calling 4BBs on the turn. Pot size would be at 23BBs if I called and it got capped behind me. I would then be 11.5-to-1 to call the cap.

And there is of course the potential for someone to already have a flush. I am unsure about how to factor in an already made flush, to my odds here.

Ok, my brain hurts. I will stop at this point and wait for some replies.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

Daniel,

You're on the right track. If you want to do this absolutely correctly, you don't totally discount the outs that will sometimes make you a second best hand. Instead, you scale them by the probability that they will give you the best hand. Thus, if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] gives someone a flush 25% of the time, the three outs you knocked out are worth 0.75*3, not 0. However, you do have to take into account RIO, where you'll be putting in money with the worst hand sometimes if you hit and are no good. Thus, you'll often want to discount your outs by somewhat more than that.

Re: My JJ is under fire too
 

[groching]
Fold, with two of them going for it i say that, at best it is a draw to a chopped stright. folding is a hard thing for me to do with 13BB sitting in the POT.