*** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

This is the official thread for 9/30/07 NFL Early Games.

These are games which start at 1pm EST (noon central, 11am mountain and 10am pacific).

The scheduled games are as follows:

(visitor @ home, start time EST, TV Network, DirecTV channel, Sirrius channel home / away)

HOU @ ATL 1:00 PM CBS 704 121 107
BAL @ CLE 1:00 PM CBS 706 125 123
OAK @ MIA 1:00 PM CBS 707 122 181
CHI @ DET 1:00 PM FOX 709 146 144
NYJ @ BUF 1:00 PM CBS 705 130 119
GB @ MIN 1:00 PM FOX 710 110 143
STL @ DAL 1:00 PM FOX 708 114 126

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

spreads and totals as of a few minutes before this posting
http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/136...eads930bi7.png

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

dear guys who can predict line movements_

I'm curious as to the chances of Houston/Atlanta moving off the 3
and Chicago/Det moving off 2.5

what do you see happening for both games?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I doubt I can predict NFL line moves well, but DET was +3 so if it's +2.5 already due to Chi injury, doubt it goes back up with Det at home.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Why is bodog so lame about getting the points numebrs out there?

As for my early line plays:

+4 Ravens (bought a 1/2 point because 21-17 and 24-20 scores keep running through my head)
-3 Texans
-6 Steelers

I'm surprised at the Texans and Steelers lines. I was thinking closer to a Touchdown spread for the texans and almost double-digit for the Steelers. Not sure what I'm missing. Arizona is going to be lucky to get more than a couple field goals and a TD this week and the Atlanta offense won't be able to keep up with the Texans'. I also went ahead and made a parlay because I'm a junky.

Clearly the Brewers game tonight is highly correlated with thes other games...

Team Parlay Bet Details (reference #86220573)



Houston Texans -3

Football - NFL Lines NFL - WEEK 4 - Pointspread

Sun@1:00p





Baltimore Ravens -4 (-120)

Football - NFL Lines NFL - WEEK 4 - Pointspread

Sun@1:00p



(Bought 0.5 points)





Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-115)

Football - NFL Lines NFL - WEEK 4 - Pointspread

Sun@4:15p





Milwaukee Brewers -150

Baseball - MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE - Moneyline

Tue@8:05p

Risk $28.46 to win $281.92

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I don't think we should be putting baseball parlays or NFL games from the other thread here. Perhaps the chatter thread, as P as suggested often?

No disrespect, just trying out the new system.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Parlay definitely should go in the Chatter thread (if anywhere).

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

The parlay was just a kicker to show that I actually bet on my super-insightful analysis. And the Ravens and Texans games are both "early". I also didn't read the title/OP properly, I thought it was just a thread about the early lines.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm all over Dal -13 and GB -2.5

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

GB -2.5???????????

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

when you see a line like Team A -2.5 should that sound off some warning bells? It seems to good to be true, like the books want us to take that line. I am avoiding the Philly and GB games as I think any of the four teams could win. If I do bet, I will give the home dogs 6 points however.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

my concern was that GB was -1

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm not concerned about GB. They just beat the Chargers and Min lost to the Lions. Wasn't GB also close to -2.5 against the Giants? Look how that turned out.

I'm probably gonna bet on Chicago now too since Griese is the starting QB

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm not sure you're getting my point

you bet at -2.5 when -1 was widely available

you just gave up a huge amount of edge

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I only have money on Bodog since I'm 18 so I take what Bodog gives me.

Edit: Also I'm not too worried about this game being close or else I wouldn't have made the bet.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3.

Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
dear guys who can predict line movements_

I'm curious as to the chances of Houston/Atlanta moving off the 3
and Chicago/Det moving off 2.5

what do you see happening for both games?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Houston line was on -2.5 for a while (I got some). I don't think there is much chance for it to move off the 3 now that it's there. If anything it will hit -2.5 again because I think the sharps are on Atlanta at +3.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Pitt too but that might be a later game so not sure if you just meant the biggest of the ones in this subset...

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3.

Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice, I like the tease at those numbers. Maybe throw in the Giants at 2.5 teased 6. I agree with a6 sicilian in that an accurate spread for that game is 1-2.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Cleveland +4.5 - The only thing Baltimore has ever had since hiring Billick is defense, and they're dinged up. Also this Derek Anderson has a gun and weapons in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow III.

Green Bay - whatever the spread. Big time rivalry and Vikings are sh*t. I went to the game a few weeks ago and by the third quarter, you could hear a pin drop.

Over 45.5 Dallas and St. Louis - Can you say track meet?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

Green Bay - whatever the spread. Big time rivalry and Vikings are sh*t. I went to the game a few weeks ago and by the third quarter, you could hear a pin drop.


[/ QUOTE ]

You went to the Sold Out home opener where we CRUSHED the Falcons and heard a pin drop? My Vikes season tickets are calling you a liar.

Anyways, in order to add to this thread:

2 plays this week:

GB @ MN -1.5 - I know it's the obvious line to jump on, but how can you resist when the team just clobbered the Chargers and is looking like a solid defensive team.

PIT @ AZ -6 - Another obvious line but unless I'm missing something, the Steelers look like favorites to dominate this game.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

So far I like:
Atl +3 (drop to -10 please)
Az +6
StL +13
under 41.5 in the Oak/Mia game

And it looks like Daliman will be busy this week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

under 41.5 in the Oak/Mia game


[/ QUOTE ]

Where'd you see that? Because Bodog has it at 42 and I'd like to know if it's goin up or not.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm extremely new to sportsbetting, but have read the FAQ and some suggested threads. Question about wong teasers, are these the types of games that you'd apply it to?

STL +13.5 -> +19.5
SF +2.5 -> +8.5
KC +12 -> +18

?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Also, I noticed the CIN line has moved to +7.5. Thats good for ppl that want to bet CIN, but bad for ppl that want to bet NE, correct?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not concerned about GB. They just beat the Chargers and Min lost to the Lions. Wasn't GB also close to -2.5 against the Giants? Look how that turned out.

I'm probably gonna bet on Chicago now too since Griese is the starting QB

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure GB closed at +2.5 (or thereabouts) to the Giants.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm extremely new to sportsbetting, but have read the FAQ and some suggested threads. Question about wong teasers, are these the types of games that you'd apply it to?

STL +13.5 -> +19.5
SF +2.5 -> +8.5
KC +12 -> +18

?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's an extensive FAQ linked in the main FAQ for Wong Teasers:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=11979246

Wong Teasers cross the 3 (+/-3) and the 7 (+/-7). Your SF example is the only valid game given.

If you have questions about Wong teasers, I'd post them in that thread linked above. Or if they're very basic and you're worried about finding the correct place, the Chatter thread. This thread is for a specific set of NFL games.

-P

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

How viable is the Betting Trend informatino on Sportsbook.com? Is there anywhere you can see how many bets are used to come up with the percentages?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]

GB @ MN -1.5 - I know it's the obvious line to jump on, but how can you resist when the team just clobbered the Chargers and is looking like a solid defensive team.

PIT @ AZ -6 - Another obvious line but unless I'm missing something, the Steelers look like favorites to dominate this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is poor analysis, imo. GB didn't clobber the Chargers last week. They were down late in the 4th quarter and Farve hit Jennings on a big play for a long td that gave them the win.

Also, as I stated in the pit-az thread, I don't really see any value on Pit -6 @ AZ. Adjusted for hfa, Pit would be a 12 point favorite here, against an AZ team that is basically just as good as SF. That's right about where the line should be, imo. In fact, I like AZ a little more after last week, since Wisenhunt showed he isn't scared to pull Leinart if he's struggling, and replace him with Warner. Basically taking Pit -6 is sort of like flipping a coin w/5% or 10% juice, imo.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Hou/Atl - I've heard Andre Johnson isn't playing. I like D-Hall to bounce back after his meltdown and shutdown whoever Houston's #2 guy is. I like Atl at home.

I'm ready to bet hard on TB-2.5 Pit-5.0 Phi-2.5 Oak +3.5 (and under 41.5) Dal-11 NYJ-2.5 (and under 37)

Thoughts?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Houston's #2 guy Jacoby Jones, is out as well.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I like ATL money line as an upset. I don't think I'll bet it too hard though.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

GB @ MN -1.5 - I know it's the obvious line to jump on, but how can you resist when the team just clobbered the Chargers and is looking like a solid defensive team.

PIT @ AZ -6 - Another obvious line but unless I'm missing something, the Steelers look like favorites to dominate this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is poor analysis, imo. GB didn't clobber the Chargers last week. They were down late in the 4th quarter and Farve hit Jennings on a big play for a long td that gave them the win.

Also, as I stated in the pit-az thread, I don't really see any value on Pit -6 @ AZ. Adjusted for hfa, Pit would be a 12 point favorite here, against an AZ team that is basically just as good as SF. That's right about where the line should be, imo. In fact, I like AZ a little more after last week, since Wisenhunt showed he isn't scared to pull Leinart if he's struggling, and replace him with Warner. Basically taking Pit -6 is sort of like flipping a coin w/5% or 10% juice, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post IMO and I think your analysis is right on. I also hope you're right about a coin flip on 6, cause I've got Pitt at 5 and looking for this line to move a lot.

I feel like Pitt -5 and GB -1 were the right lines, and both will be big BSP picks this week which will open some very attractive middles.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

noob Q.

BSP?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

noob A:

read the forum FAQ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(or just look in the glossary for BSP, or search inside that page for the term)

http://performify.com/FAQ.gif

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

"My Vikes season tickets are calling you a liar"

No sir. It was the last home contest in pre-season. Whereas most teams see a pretty good turn out for the last game during that time, the Metrodome was very quiet. Just wait. As the season drags on for the Vikings, they'll have a hard time getting the game broadcast on TV. Furthermore, "crushing" a hapless team like Atlanta with defensive touchdowns is not a Super Bowl bound team.

Best of luck to you all. I'm off on vacation for a month where I'll be chasing beautiful Italian women.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like ATL money line as an upset. I don't think I'll bet it too hard though.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm on the Atlanta ML at +140. I like it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm off on vacation for a month where I'll be chasing beautiful Italian women.

[/ QUOTE ]

Italian women are very nice until the squirrels in their armpits comes out.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Houston's #2 guy Jacoby Jones, is out as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

He isn't the #2 guy. Likely he will be in the future though.