Heisman Prop Bet
 

MyTurn, Iggy, Bills, Najdorf, etal.... help needed [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

A guy who works for me wants to bet his paycheck this week (it's about 1.5k, so sizeable enough for me to take this somewhat seriously) on the Heisman.

I get 8 guys, he gets the field, I have to give him 2:1 odds. So... if one of my 8 wins it, then in a few months I have to send ~3k his way, and if someone else wins, I have to send 0 his way. I get to hold back his check this week for the bet, and there's no real credit risk here or anything on either side (we're good friends, and besides... I'm holding the money).

I think that this bet is clearly +EV for me, though his repeated "it's too early... it's a crazy year... no real frontrunner yet..." comments are making me want to really optimize this thing.

Here's where I'm leaning now:

Tebow - cuz he's the man
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford - cuz Okla may win it all
Booty
Matt Ryan - good darkhorse? potential BCS bowl team?
Mike Hart
DeSean Jackson

This has got to be +EV for me, right? Anyone else you'd throw in, and anyone you'd take out?

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

off the top of my head, i think that's a good bet for you...

but you need to change up your lineup... some guys can definitely go from that lineup... have to be honest though, haven't heard of one of your guys, so take my advice with grain of salt.

i don't see colt brennan (hawaii) or ray rice (rutgers).... i would have brennan for sure.

no slaton or white (WVU)... oregon QB dixon.... Kentucky huge huge surprise team....missouri (qb's name escapes me... chase daniels???) and south florida making noise... not sure you should actually pick any from this category except maybe slaton.

anyhow, collegefootballnews.com has a big heisman column every week and i have to think there must be a heisman journalist poll somewhere. or live heisman odds

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just to add my above analysis.... woodson of ky is way up lists. although i see you did have him...

dixon from oregon cracking top 5 lists.... broham still hanging around....... don't see much bradford, but a little for sure.

anyhow, mcfadden and tebow are 1-2 in most lists i saw.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

ok, this is already definitely helping. Starting a list of some blockheaded moves I made (ie guys I may have left out, shown to me by Bruin):

Colt Brennan - DEFINITELY going on my list

Ray Rice - Also definitely going on

West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

Dixon?

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

as per my earlier "news google" heisman poll.kicks up a bunch of stuff. rocky mountain news i think has a good one. not sure if they're picking it up from a syndicated service....

interestingly, ray rice getting very little buzz... and brennan's buzz has gone down alot, although he must still be a shoo-in for a top 10 list.

if slaton/white could combine production, i think they'd be huge favorites

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

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Don't candidates from the same team tend to split votes? Bush won with Palmer, right? But Slaton is no Reggie Bush. I think you could go without a WVA guy on your list honestly.

- C -

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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[ QUOTE ]
West Virginia - Dont know if I should use Slaton or White (I'm thinking Slaton), but I need one of them. Maybe I can wait to see if they beat USF on Friday night, and if one of them shines in the Friday night tv game...

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Don't candidates from the same team tend to split votes? Bush won with Palmer, right? But Slaton is no Reggie Bush. I think you could go without a WVA guy on your list honestly.

- C -

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I don't.

Bush won with a Heisman winner on his team. Stuff like that doesn't affect an individual voter, imho.

McFadden
Rice
Brennan
White/Slaton
Woodson
maybe Tebow
Hart
maybe Brohm, no D is not his fault.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Noel Devine will probably spell Slaton enough this year that I wouldn't worry too much about leaving Slaton off the list. And the only way Pat White has a shot is if WVU goes 11-0, since Slaton is their "star".

Brohm's team is too bad for him to win. 7-4 quarterbacks don't win Heismans.

Matt Ryan is a good pick IMO - better than any of the Big East guys except Rice. Look at BC's schedule - they'll alomst definitly be 7-0, and he should get some good pub when he takes an undefeated team on National TV and throws five TDs in South Bend in about a month.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

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while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

honestly, I don't like the bet

it would have to be 6 to 5 to be +ev IMO

the field is just too far open with numerous name players from so many different teams that could go a long way

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Good bargaining....I like it now...nice bet

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

is the preseason hype on desean jackson gone with his soso performance thus far?

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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Good bargaining....I like it now...nice bet

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Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

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while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.

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This is exactly correct. Heisman voting tends to be regional. I love Woodson as a player, but if an SEC quarterback wins the Heisman this year, it won't be Woodson.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Nobody knew who Carson Palmer was [nationally] the beginning of that year, either, after 3 inconsistent years. He certainly wasn't getting the Dorsey love and his team wasn't in contention for a title in 2002 like Dorsey either.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

go brennan!

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy crap you took him to the cleaners.

I'd lock in bets right now (while the odds are high) on Patrick White and the sleepers Jamaal Charles/Dennis Dixon. Those are the only three names off your list with a chance of winning; the latter two would require beating Texas and USC, respectively, to have a shot.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

If you get 10 at 6:5, it's a pretty good bet no matter what, but I definitely would have put Pat White and Dennis Dixon in there over Bradford or Woodson. Kentucky would have to win the SEC East to give Woodson a shot (very unlikely IMO), and a freshman's not going to win the Heisman no matter what. Meanwhile, Pat White's the best player on a high-profile team that could easily go undefeated and if Oregon beats USC (about 50/50 IMO), Dixon skyrockets to the top of the charts instantly.

I'd say right now, it's something like:
1. Booty
2. White
3. Brennan
4. Tebow
5. Dixon
6. Slaton
7. Rice
8. McFadden
9. Jackson
10. Charles

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

edit

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you get 10 at 6:5, it's a pretty good bet no matter what, but I definitely would have put Pat White and Dennis Dixon in there over Bradford or Woodson. Kentucky would have to win the SEC East to give Woodson a shot (very unlikely IMO), and a freshman's not going to win the Heisman no matter what. Meanwhile, Pat White's the best player on a high-profile team that could easily go undefeated and if Oregon beats USC (about 50/50 IMO), Dixon skyrockets to the top of the charts instantly.

I'd say right now, it's something like:
1. Booty
2. White
3. Brennan
4. Tebow
5. Dixon
6. Slaton
7. Rice
8. McFadden
9. Jackson
10. Charles

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If the season ended right now, McFadden would win pretty easily...

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

I would be leery of adding Oregon's QB Dixon. Say what you will, but imho, voters don't like to bet on people whose team has lost more than once. Oregon will drop a game to USC and may drop one to Cal

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Just saying something doesn't make it true. The Hogs have a losing record right now and only one player with a losing record has ever won the Heisman. No way in hell is McFadden the frontrunner. Most of the media types I've heard that actually have votes seem to like Brennan right now, but that won't last if Hawaii doesn't go undefeated, and I think they're going to pick up at least one loss, if not two or three.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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I would be leery of adding Oregon's QB Dixon. Say what you will, but imho, voters don't like to bet on people whose team has lost more than once. Oregon will drop a game to USC and may drop one to Cal

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I wouldn't have him in my Top 5 if I didn't think Oregon had a very good chance to beat USC. I really do though. If I were to guess an outcome for the season, I'd say Oregon goes 11-1 and reaches the Rose Bowl.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

I'm pretty sure that I'm +EV with what I locked in... but I feared Brohm and White the most (though not much) when I made the bet, and fear Dixon alot more them either of them now, having read some ideas in here.

Methinks I'm rooting for USC vs Oregon (and Cal vs Oregon this week) more than I thought I would be...

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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I'm pretty sure that I'm +EV with what I locked in... but I feared Brohm and White the most (though not much) when I made the bet, and fear Dixon alot more them either of them now, having read some ideas in here.

Methinks I'm rooting for USC vs Oregon (and Cal vs Oregon this week) more than I thought I would be...

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FYI, both Dixon and White are 10-1 on Matchbook

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart



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I'm not sure who I would have added (White???)but I'd have left off Tebow. To win it as a sophomore he would have to be head and shoulders above everyone else in contention. He's not.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

You'd leave off the sophomore over the freshman? I don't know about that. BTW, for OP, here's CFN's latest Heisman breakdown. It's designed to measure who has the best chance of winning the award and not who's most deserving.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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You'd leave off the sophomore over the freshman? I don't know about that. BTW, for OP, here's CFN's latest Heisman breakdown. It's designed to measure who has the best chance of winning the award and not who's most deserving

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Didn't even register that Bradford is a frosh. I'd leave him off too.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
McFadden
Rice
Brennan
White/Slaton
Woodson
maybe Tebow
Hart
maybe Brohm, no D is not his fault.

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Brohm has no chance (although it isn't his fault), but I like the rest of this list. Instead of Brohm, I'd probably go with Booty. I'd be sick leaving Booty off any Heisman list since the QB of the best team wins seemingly 80% of the time.

Shame to have to put both WV players on, but it really could be either one at this point. If you can get away with it, waiting to see if they lose to South Florida and then removing one or both might not be a bad plan.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
This has been really helpful. Thankyou to all who helped. Given the responses, I was able to bargain my way to 10 players rather than 8, and only giving him 1.5:1 odds rather than 2:1... though I had to commit to the players today (and give up on the waiting for WVU/USF thing...) So, here's the plan, if anybody is curious:

Tebow
Brennan
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford
Booty
Slaton
Rice
Matt Ryan
Mike Hart

Thankyou again to everyone who helped me here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't see this post before I posted. This is a very good list and bet. Wish I could get it myself. Just gotta hope for chalk now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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Curtis painter (4-0) top 25 team, 16 tds and 1 int. Look for him to get noticed after this week, and ND.

[/ QUOTE ]

while great players,
no way would I put Painter or Woodson or Brohm on the list

for a QB to win, his team has to be a huge winner. It would be a stretch for either Purdue or Kentucky to last and win their conferences (which is nerely a per-req for a QB).

A RB such as McFadden can win the heisman even with a slumping team. It would be incredibly hard, but not unprecedented.

Ever since Gino Toretta won over Marshall Faulk, the award has become quite the glamour piece for a good player from one of the top 5 teams in the country after the regular season.

Colt Brennan could overcome the top 5 because Hawai'i could go undefeated with him putting up ridic stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly correct. Heisman voting tends to be regional. I love Woodson as a player, but if an SEC quarterback wins the Heisman this year, it won't be Woodson.

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Kentucky gets Florida in Lexington. If Kentucky wins that game (they'll be a 7-10 pt. underdog), they have the inside track to win the East. If Kentucky wins that game, both UK and UF lose to LSU, and UK takes 2 of 3 from UGA/UT/USC, then Kentucky is your East champ. If Florida splits with UGA/SC, then Kentucky could potentially win the East at 5-3 (again provided they somehow beat Florida).

This scenario is not that farfetched. Woodson is also in the process of extending his own NCAA record for passes without an interception, and currently looks like he may never ever throw an INT ever again. If he finishes the year with 30-40 TD's/0-3 INT's and UK wins the East, he is your Heisman winner.

Edited for correctness.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Dixon doesn't have an interception yet this season either. If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU, Woodson's numbers would have to be >>>>>> than Dixon's to have a shot. Likewise, if WVU goes 12-0 and White keeps up his current pace, he'd be way ahead of Woodson as well.

In order for Woodson to win, he needs:
1) to continue putting up lights out numbers
2) for Kentucky to finish much better than expected
3) for the other Heisman contenders to falter

Needing all three of those makes him a lot less likely than someone that only needs one or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to New York, but in order for him to actually win the trophy, it would take a perfect storm of multiple factors colliding.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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Dixon doesn't have an interception yet this season either. If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU, Woodson's numbers would have to be >>>>>> than Dixon's to have a shot. Likewise, if WVU goes 12-0 and White keeps up his current pace, he'd be way ahead of Woodson as well.

In order for Woodson to win, he needs:
1) to continue putting up lights out numbers
2) for Kentucky to finish much better than expected
3) for the other Heisman contenders to falter

Needing all three of those makes him a lot less likely than someone that only needs one or two. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to New York, but in order for him to actually win the trophy, it would take a perfect storm of multiple factors colliding.

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I really think 2 is the main thing. 1 is basically automatic, and as for 3, I don't think others need to "falter" so much as no one else can really dominate, which is of course just as true for any other candidate.

Woodson has a lot more exposure than Dixon currently, and Dixon and Brennan will both have to battle East Coast bias (and Brennan mid-major non-continental bias). Brennan needs to go undefeated to have a chance to win. I think Oregon loses at least two games - PAC-10 is too deep.

Slaton and White will split up votes even if they go undefeated, which I don't think they will. They might not even be undefeated at the end of this week.

The fact that Mike Hart is even in the race is a joke to me (not saying he isn't a great player/great guy etc.). The argument as to why the Tim Couch/Randy Moss types can't win is that their teams haven't been good enough, but now we're gonna give it to a guy whose team lost to Appalachian State and then Oregon by 100 points, at home?

It all comes down to the Florida game really. Kentucky beats Florida (not saying they will) and Woodson immediately becomes Top 3 if not the favorite. If Kentucky wins the East, no one else has a dominant season, and the voters are left with Woodson versus a vanilla-undefeated-USC-QB, I would hope they pick Woodson.

Edit: I actually screwed up my earlier post. Florida doesn't need to lose to SC or UGA if they lose to Kentucky. If they did, then Kentucky can win the East at 5-3, which is even more realistic - although it would be a little harder for Woodson to win with 3 losses.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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If Oregon ends up 11-1 Pac-Ten champions and Kentucky's 10-3 after a 2nd loss to LSU

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Does the voting happen before or after the conference title games? Didn't some vanilla Oklahoma QB win after taking a complete dump in the Big 12 title game recently?

And if LSU is as good as they look and continue to go undefeated, there is no shame in losing to them twice or a hundred times.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

Voting's open through the conference title games, but the ballots are by mail and a lot of voters that don't care all that much about college football send them in early.

I guess what I was trying to say is that while WVU going 12-0, Oregon winning the Pac-Ten, Rutgers going 12-0, etc., are individually unlikely events, they're no more unlikely then Kentucky winning the SEC East, and if any of those events happen, it won't matter if Kentucky wins the SEC East or not.

In order to really be a legitimate frontrunner and to not need the other candidates to fall apart, Woodson would probably have to lead the Cats to 11 wins and a BCS game and I just don't see that happening.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

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I guess what I was trying to say is that while WVU going 12-0, Oregon winning the Pac-Ten, Rutgers going 12-0, etc., are individually unlikely events, they're no more unlikely then Kentucky winning the SEC East, and if any of those events happen, it won't matter if Kentucky wins the SEC East or not.

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Even if WVU goes undefeated (unlikely), White and Slaton will split up votes. Even if Oregon wins the Pac-10 (unlikely), Dixon is way behind in exposure, currently, and plays on the west coast. I concede an undefeated Rutgers (also unlikely) is basically a lock for Rice, but the other two, not so.

Woodson is getting as much pub as anyone right now. I think (and hope) that considering the recent and not-so-recent history of the Kentucky program, the bar should be set a little lower re: team success. If UK wins the East, that is a monumental accomplishment. Period. Two years ago, the thought of Kentucky winning the SEC East in 2007 was totally unthinkable even for the most optimistic UK fan. The probability of that event was somewhere between 0 and 0.00001. That the program has come this far this quick is amazing, and Woodson has had a lot to do with it.

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

This was great - wish I knew about it before. I'll definitely keep my eyes on this for the rest of the year. I'm also now considering a side bet on Dixon at 10-1 on Matchbook (thanks to OP) to kind of 'close out' this thing, as he (and maybe White) seem to pretty clearly be my 2 biggest omissions...

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 

McFadden -200
Someone else +200