NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

Okay, so after my recent results Im feeling quite confident about my game. However, Ive done some stats research today and out of all stat screenshots Ive seen mine is the most unusual. Extremely high WT$SD and winnings from the BB, but see yourself.

Please note, this is NOT a thinly veiled brag. Im rushing through the limits right now on a rather short bankroll. If Ive only been running sick hot in the past I need to know now before I drop my entire roll again at limits Im not skilled for.


I made it a link. I dont know how I can make smaller pictures when taking screenshots on my huge monitor. (Now THATS a thinly veiled brag [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

Running sick hot?

edit: these are 280 stars turbo HU games.

10% 6s
60% 11s
10% 22s
15% 33s
5% 55s


all comments appreciated.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

really, results don't matter so much. i mean, ok, after like 1000 games they do, but look back at your hands and see if your were making good decisions. that's all that matters. so if you won a hand where you were 3bet pf by a tightie and you held ATs, then that was probably not a good decision. applying stove to hands and seeing if you were making good decisions against ranges (given pot size) and so forth is more important imho.

anyways, you will run like crap soon enough. don't worry it will happen, if you push your edge. i can show you stretches i've had over 150 games (maybe more) where nothing worked. AA < 33 ai pf, etc., and on and on like it would never end.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

Whats your total weighted ROI (can be found at the bottom of all the ROIs on the front page).

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

interesting your PF AF is about 2. Mine is 7.8 Either yours is low or mine is high.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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Whats your total weighted ROI (can be found at the bottom of all the ROIs on the front page).

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I never imported the summaries into PT. Tourny manager says:

13.5% ROI
60.8% ITM

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

13% ROI is not sick hot with a lot of those games at micros, it is a very good winrate however, certainly sustainable.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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13% ROI is not sick hot with a lot of those games at micros, it is a very good winrate however, certainly sustainable.

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yeah, but understand, thats exactly my concern. If I had a 2x% ROI Id _KNOW_ that Im running hot. Like this I only have surreal stats but a normal winrate.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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interesting your PF AF is about 2. Mine is 7.8 Either yours is low or mine is high.

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Maybe neither, depends on the games you play in, if people wont attack your limps limping a lot can be a very good strategy, if they do you generally have to play raise or fold.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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interesting your PF AF is about 2. Mine is 7.8 Either yours is low or mine is high.

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Maybe neither, depends on the games you play in, if people wont attack your limps limping a lot can be a very good strategy, if they do you generally have to play raise or fold.

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yeah, attacking limps pretty much doesnt happen at the 33s and below.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

i don't open limp. maybe i need to reduce my salt/raw meat intake.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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i don't open limp. maybe i need to reduce my salt/raw meat intake.

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Hu sngs?

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

Is it usual for you to win 54% of showdowns?

Otherwise, I don't see anything off, but your BB/hand is .11. Is this high r low for you?

I wouldn't worry about it. You didn't work your way to this level playing like an idiot.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

well, the 54% showdown is one of my major concerns. Im not a stats guy (Im doing research right now but I cant find much useful info) but I remember people talking about how 52% or so was sooo high and how he/she must be running hot right now.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

Wrong. I run at 52% over 400 games.

EDIT: I would like to point out that I think that your WSD is inversely related to your VPIP, but I wouldn't know for sure.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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well, the 54% showdown is one of my major concerns. Im not a stats guy (Im doing research right now but I cant find much useful info) but I remember people talking about how 52% or so was sooo high and how he/she must be running hot right now.

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Anything below 55% is very reasonable, plus way too small a sample size for this particular stat.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

allright, then I totally misunderstood that concept.

Last but not least: Why the hell do I win nearly twice as much from the BB than OTB?

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

I am just guessing but probably because you bluff more often in position.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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I am just guessing but probably because you bluff more often in position.

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Undoubtedly true. Does that also mean that Im probably bluffing too much? Or is that why Im subsequently getting paid off in the BB?

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

I think it is for two reasons: You are playing tighter against a raise and seeing free flops. When playing out of the SB, you are taking initiative, and a large portion of your value comes from c-betting (read: bluffing).

Take a deep breath and relax, it is all good.

If you really want to do a stat-by-stat comparison, you should filter out the 33s and see how you fair in the smaller levels. It would not surprise me to know that this has been the trend all along.

Hint: same is happening to me.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

I honestly wouldnt change anything based upon these stats, you seem to be playing very well for the levels you are playing, Id much rather look at HHs than say something is wrong based on your stats because HU is soo dependent on tons of variable, also FWIW bluffing more often in position is correct because you have more information.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

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I honestly wouldnt change anything based upon these stats, you seem to be playing very well for the levels you are playing, Id much rather look at HHs than say something is wrong based on your stats because HU is soo dependent on tons of variable, also FWIW bluffing more often in position is correct because you have more information.

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allright, that sounds reasonable. Thanks for everybodies feedback already.

I guess all the panic came from the Wt$Sd misconception and a little 6max-"you cant win from the bb" mindset. But now knowing that nothing is severely wrong means a lot to me.

Re: NLTRN: Am I just running sick hot? Stat checkup
 

I don't know much about the PT stats but from what I've read this looks more like "good player running (above?) average" than "average player running hot."