Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

Giddyup!

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

Kentucky has so many injuries it's hard for me to cap this week's tilt vs. Florida Atlantic. I'd expect it to open around 24, but Kentucky had a ton of injuries (top 3 RB's and top 2 DB's) against Arkansas, and I don't know what to expect for the status of any of those players.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

I think there is potential for quite a bit of value on Louisville this week against NC State. I really have no idea what to expect for the spread, but Louisville is not as bad as they showed this week, obviously - a lot of fluky stuff in that game. They are a much better team than NC State. I think there is potential for overreaction here.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

Curious about these lines:

WVU (4) @ USF ??
MSU @ Wisconsin (6.5) ??
Cal @ Oregon over/under (64) ??

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I'm thinking WVU/USF will probably be WVU -3ish. Wisconsin line looks close to right, maybe -5 or 6. No opinion on the other.

Any guesses on what Louisville will be? -7? -10? ??? I think I could cozy up to them at 7 but I have no idea what to expect. NC State just got outgained 608-202 by Clemson at home. They have a pretty bad resume. Kinda like Syracuse did. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

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Kentucky has so many injuries it's hard for me to cap this week's tilt vs. Florida Atlantic. I'd expect it to open around 24, but Kentucky had a ton of injuries (top 3 RB's and top 2 DB's) against Arkansas, and I don't know what to expect for the status of any of those players.

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Arkansas was hitting your backs sooooooooo hard. I didn't think the injuries were serious though?

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

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Kentucky has so many injuries it's hard for me to cap this week's tilt vs. Florida Atlantic. I'd expect it to open around 24, but Kentucky had a ton of injuries (top 3 RB's and top 2 DB's) against Arkansas, and I don't know what to expect for the status of any of those players.

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Arkansas was hitting your backs sooooooooo hard. I didn't think the injuries were serious though?

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They probably aren't but the problem is there aren't even any published post-game quotes from Brooks. I don't have anything to go on really. Alfonso Smith's (3rd-string), looked like the worst, pretty bad ankle sprain. I would expect Little and Dixon play. Lindley (#1 CB) looked ok after the game, don't know about Warford. If both were out, we could be comically thin there and that could be damaging.
There's just a lot of uncertainty.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

We will also be entering a short week next week, with South Carolina coming up on Thursday night, and especially with how effective Locke was, I would expect Brooks to be very careful with the other backs and other banged up players in general. Keenan Burton has been playing with a sprained ankle as well, although you wouldn't know it from seeing him kill Arkansas.

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Mississippi State @ South Carolina -13.5?

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Here are some guesses on the high profile games:

Cal at Oregon -2 (fair line -4.5)
West Virginia -4 at South Florida (fair line -2.5)
Michigan State at Wisconsin -4.5 (fair line -4)
Clemson -7 at Georgia Tech (fair line -7)
Alabama -2.5 at Florida State (fair line no idea)

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I'll take a stab.

Auburn @ Florida -17
O/U 48

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Auburn @ Florida -14.5?
Ole Miss @ UGA -16?

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I think it'll be WVa favored by 4 or 5, though I personally think that USF may win outright (and will of course love to bet them getting 3+).

Wisconsin -5 over MSU?
Oregon -4 over Cal?

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Here are some guesses on the high profile games:

Cal at Oregon -2 (fair line -4.5)
West Virginia -4 at South Florida (fair line -2.5)
Michigan State at Wisconsin -4.5 (fair line -4)
Clemson -7 at Georgia Tech (fair line -7)
Alabama -2.5 at Florida State (fair line no idea)

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I'll be all over that WVU line.

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Notre Dame @ Purdue -24?

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Notre Dame @ Purdue -24?

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Too high. Purdue's a little worse than MSU, so I'd guess maybe 21. Maybe even 20 just to stick it to the stubborn Irish fans who say "Notre Dame can't start 0-8 and this is the only winnable game left".

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last 3 weeks ND opened about 4 pts bigger a dog then then ended up, correct?

Kinda tempting to set up a middle if there is going to continue to be square action on ND late in the week

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Actually, I think I should revise that WVU/USF number. New guess is that it opens at WVU -3, immediately gets bet down to -2.5, and kind of stays there before getting slowly bet back up to -3 at kickoff. Looking it over a little closer, I think a fair line's probably more like PK.

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Really? I find that surprising.

USF's resume is not all that impressive considering how bad Auburn is. WVU much more impressive so far IMO. What is your thinking here?

WVU has just dominated their opponents, although admittedly they haven't played anyone of the caliber of USF. I still think they have to be at least -3.

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Wisconsin opened -7.5 !?!
WVU -7 ?!?!

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USF +7.5
Mich. St. +7.5 (just missed +9)
Clemson +1

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USF has more starters back and less key losses than WVU from a team that won at Morgantown last year and they're 11-2 at home since the start of '05 so I think they have a pretty big edge there. I do think the Mountaineers are legit and are significantly better than USF, but on the road, it's close enough that it really could go either way. Kind of reminds me of the Lou/Rut game last year where the line stayed around 3 all week, but the smart money was on the Scarlet Knights.

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first time i've ever tried jumping on early lines, so this might be donkish, but i'm on (and hoping to middle later)

USF +7
MSU +7.5
NDAME +21.5

all btwn -101 to -110 juice

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Wow, I'll be all over USF at that price. And it looks like Clemson +1 didn't last long, already up to -3.

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Ohio State -21.5, Michigan State +7, and Alabama +2.5 all look really good too. I'm going to wait for 2 cent lines on Matchbook instead of taking 10 cent lines on Bookmaker though.

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Ya, was going to say, 'Bama +2.5 looks juicy

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Bama +3, MSU +7.5, even juicier [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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alright, I got one unit on Indiana +13.5 @ Iowa -120

this will likely end the POTW, but I want to see if I can get a decent price on the 13 later. I don't care about losing the 12.5 and 12 too much

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I also like Air Force +2.5 at Navy and Pitt at Virginia -7 at first look. Again, going to wait before making any actual bets though.

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first time i've ever tried jumping on early lines, so this might be donkish, but i'm on (and hoping to middle later)

USF +7
MSU +7.5
NDAME +21.5

all btwn -101 to -110 juice

[/ QUOTE ]

very nice work

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I only have funds on Bodog -- when do they usually post their lines?

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I only have funds on Bodog -- when do they usually post their lines?

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About 20 minutes before kickoff.

Get a new book.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

AUBURN +17½-110
COLORADO +22-110
NOTRE DAME+21½-110
SO MISS +10½-110
PITTSBURGH U +7-110
WASH U +21-110
CALIFORNIA +4½-110

Wow I guess it is dog week.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

And... PENN ST-3-110

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UNC +17.5? Interesting.

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ND +21.5, 1u

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More dogs.

KSU +16.5 -110
CSU +12 -110

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Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one.

Really like PSU -3 here. Won't bet them obv.

Love MSU +7.5

- C -

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

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Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one.

- C -

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My thinking on ND +21.5 is the Irish homers will load up on them later in the week, hopefully bringing the line way down creating a huge middle.

I don't plan on letting +21.5 ride by itself.

Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
 

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Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one.

- C -

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My thinking on ND +21.5 is the Irish homers will load up on them later in the week, hopefully bringing the line way down creating a huge middle.

I don't plan on letting +21.5 ride by itself.

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Definitely could see that. Think you can ride it to 16.5? Might be pretty sweet... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

- C -