X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

I am not a financial type guy, so feel free to rip me to shreads. Both posts are from me in EDGD:

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
please explain how a dollar "collapse" is different that the dollar just continuing to slide down as it has for the last several years?

[/ QUOTE ]

Currently there are trillions of USD being held outside of the US. As the USD slips, those holdings lose value. So all those holding them have a depreciating asset. At some point, the rats are going to desert that ship. This will precipitate the sell-off of USD, and their international value will literally plummet (imho of course).

Once the international value tanks, people are going to be stuck with all these devalued dollars. They will try to recoup their losses. How will they do that? They will buy up anything and everything they can get their hands on that they can buy with USD. But the only place that will be will be the United States. Exports will skyrocket. Foreign investors will buy up American real estate and companies, you name it. The trade deficit will become a trade surplus (which is not a good thing, no matter what Lou [censored] Dobbs thinks). All of those dollars flowing back into our economy will creat massive double digit inflation.

Meanwhile, our inflation-bubbled economy is certainly going to pop at the same time, meaning we will get a massive recession. We'll have massive inflation and a recession, just like the 1970s.

The value of gold will skyrocket as people look to get out of USD that are losing value daily. This happened at the end of the 70s as well. Gold hit $800 per ounce in late '79. In today's inflated dollars that's like $2400. Currently it's at like $735 and climbing _fast_.

Central banks prevented gold form spontaneously remonetizing in 1980 by instituting massive gold dumping to crash the market value of gold and convince people that their inflation hedge bet had failed. It worked. Central banks have been gold dumping off and on for 30 years to control the price of gold.

But my gut feeling is that there is not enough gold left in the central banks of the entire world to prevent it again. So the dollar will crash, we will get a massive recession + massive inflation and a flight to gold. The price of gold will double or triple or quadruple. Central banks will dump gold, but it will fail. If they do try this, and the price of gold crashes, you should buy as much as you can, because when they do this they will be putting real money back into circulation and you want to have as much of it as you can get. Gold will spontaneously remonetize, and the world fiat currency order will collapse.

That's my theory.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realized there is a mistake in my reasoning. That being, everyone else can also follow this chain of reasoning. Why would foreign dollars holders wait until AFTER the dollar tanks to start trying to recoup their losses on their dollar holdings? Why would they sell off dollars for Euros or Yen when that would crash the value of the dollar, and hence their remaining holdings? They wouldn't.

Instead I realized that they will start getting out of dollars now, not by buying other currencies, but rather by buying up US assets, like companies and real estate.

And then lo and behold, what do I find out last night? Dubai is buying a 20% stake in NASDAQ, apparently with only a 5% voting share. I will make this prediction: I bet if you were to look around the market, foreign investors are buying up US companies and real estate left and right, and that the rate is increasing. The trade deficit already took a healthy whack as exports ticked up sharply, and I bet the same is reflected in US hard assets.

I don't really know how to check this prediction, though. Anyone know of any reports on foreign acquisition of US companies and real estate?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

You're ignoring the forex market, according to the most recent Foreign Exchange Committee Volume Survey there was $12,981,915,000,000 of volume in the 21 trading days in April 2007.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/fxc/volume...survey2007.pdf

If you were a foreigner with dollar exposure concerns would it make more sense to hedge or even get net short the dollar in a very liquid market or start buying US companies and real estate just before the US goes into a serious recession?

How do you consider buying US companies and real estate as “getting out of dollars”, what do you think you will get paid with when you sell them?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

The Japanese were going to buy up everything in the 80s but we're still here.

It's also not the first time the dollar has dropped like this. A few good years and no one will even remember this 'crisis'.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Borodog, you're retarded for someone who has a higher than average intelligence.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

"very liquid market or start buying US companies and real estate just before the US goes into a serious recession?


is a serious recession ever not coming?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Borodog, you're retarded for someone who has a higher than average intelligence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why? Though I may not entirely agree with everything OP has stated, I do not have a strong counterargument to be able to say he is "retarded". I am actually looking for a good counter argument.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Woolygimp, you're retarded for someone that has below average intelligence.



See how pointless posts like these are? What do you expect people to reply with. "I know you are but what am I?". That won't lead this forum anywhere.

Saying your astrologist predicts dollar appreciation due to sunspot locations would be a more productive of a post than your blind dead-end statement.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're ignoring the forex market, according to the most recent Foreign Exchange Committee Volume Survey there was $12,981,915,000,000 of volume in the 21 trading days in April 2007.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/fxc/volume...survey2007.pdf

If you were a foreigner with dollar exposure concerns would it make more sense to hedge or even get net short the dollar in a very liquid market or start buying US companies and real estate just before the US goes into a serious recession?

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting something for your dollars is better than getting almost nothing for your dollars. Owning a company or real estate, especially if you try to bet on companies that are unlikely to flat go under in a recession (like the NASDAQ), is better than holding onto dollars or waiting for those dollars to crash in value before unloading them. And trying to sell of dollar holding for Euro or Yen would likely kick off the crash of the dollar.

[ QUOTE ]
How do you consider buying US companies and real estate as “getting out of dollars”, what do you think you will get paid with when you sell them?

[/ QUOTE ]

But you can sell them much later, once the situation has stabilized. Again, it's not a matter of making money. It's a matter of stopping bleeding.

The scenario I am describing has largely already happened in the late 70s and early 80s. Remember when everyone was hysterical that foreign companies were buying up American companies and real estate? The Japanese owned skyscrapers, companies, you name it. This happened because: There were a lot of dollars in foreign hands, the dollar was weak internationally, and since the US was already *in* recession, there was little direction to go but up for surviving US companies. Hence foreign investment went through the roof.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Borodog, you're retarded for someone who has a higher than average intelligence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Getting something for your dollars is better than getting almost nothing for your dollars. Owning a company or real estate, especially if you try to bet on companies that are unlikely to flat go under in a recession (like the NASDAQ), is better than holding onto dollars or waiting for those dollars to crash in value before unloading them. And trying to sell of dollar holding for Euro or Yen would likely kick off the crash of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at a chart, the dollar has been going down for quite awhile. Do you think that banks and business haven’t noticed yet and they will all suddenly realize it at the same time? Banks and business are constantly monitoring and adjusting their currency exposures through the forex market. What do you think accounts for the almost 13 trillion in monthly forex volume?

[ QUOTE ]
But you can sell them much later, once the situation has stabilized. Again, it's not a matter of making money. It's a matter of stopping bleeding.

The scenario I am describing has largely already happened in the late 70s and early 80s. Remember when everyone was hysterical that foreign companies were buying up American companies and real estate? The Japanese owned skyscrapers, companies, you name it. This happened because: There were a lot of dollars in foreign hands, the dollar was weak internationally, and since the US was already *in* recession, there was little direction to go but up for surviving US companies. Hence foreign investment went through the roof.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over the years, Japanese investors have established a strong presence in the United States. Japanese FDI in the United States surged in the 1980s and continued to increase in the 1990s. In the 1980s, Japanese investors acquired such high-profile U.S. assets as Columbia Pictures, Rockefeller Center, and Pebble Beach Golf Course. These investments followed surges in Japanese investments in the United States by Japanese consumer electronics firms and auto producers. (Many of these acquisitions were not profitable for Japanese investors.)

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32649.pdf

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting something for your dollars is better than getting almost nothing for your dollars. Owning a company or real estate, especially if you try to bet on companies that are unlikely to flat go under in a recession (like the NASDAQ), is better than holding onto dollars or waiting for those dollars to crash in value before unloading them. And trying to sell of dollar holding for Euro or Yen would likely kick off the crash of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at a chart, the dollar has been going down for quite awhile. Do you think that banks and business haven’t noticed yet and they will all suddenly realize it at the same time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that what crashes are made of?

[ QUOTE ]
Banks and business are constantly monitoring and adjusting their currency exposures through the forex market. What do you think accounts for the almost 13 trillion in monthly forex volume?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure this is true. But that doesn't mean there won't be a dollar crash.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But you can sell them much later, once the situation has stabilized. Again, it's not a matter of making money. It's a matter of stopping bleeding.

The scenario I am describing has largely already happened in the late 70s and early 80s. Remember when everyone was hysterical that foreign companies were buying up American companies and real estate? The Japanese owned skyscrapers, companies, you name it. This happened because: There were a lot of dollars in foreign hands, the dollar was weak internationally, and since the US was already *in* recession, there was little direction to go but up for surviving US companies. Hence foreign investment went through the roof.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over the years, Japanese investors have established a strong presence in the United States. Japanese FDI in the United States surged in the 1980s and continued to increase in the 1990s. In the 1980s, Japanese investors acquired such high-profile U.S. assets as Columbia Pictures, Rockefeller Center, and Pebble Beach Golf Course. These investments followed surges in Japanese investments in the United States by Japanese consumer electronics firms and auto producers. (Many of these acquisitions were not profitable for Japanese investors.)

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32649.pdf

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, I'm sure this is true. But That doesn't prove there isn't a strong uptick in foreign investment happening right now (and not in treasury bonds, either), which is an observable consequence of my hypothesis.

These two points actually seem to *support* my hypothesis rather than argue against it.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting something for your dollars is better than getting almost nothing for your dollars. Owning a company or real estate, especially if you try to bet on companies that are unlikely to flat go under in a recession (like the NASDAQ), is better than holding onto dollars or waiting for those dollars to crash in value before unloading them. And trying to sell of dollar holding for Euro or Yen would likely kick off the crash of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at a chart, the dollar has been going down for quite awhile. Do you think that banks and business haven’t noticed yet and they will all suddenly realize it at the same time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that what crashes are made of?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes that is what crashes are made of, but everyone from Warren Buffet to thousands of posters on internet forums have been calling for everything from a sell off to a crash for over a year now. There has been no shortage of stories in every form of media predicting the demise of the dollar. Every crash I am aware of came as a surprise, can you point to a single instance of a crash that occurred after it was publicly called for by so many people for so long a time?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting something for your dollars is better than getting almost nothing for your dollars. Owning a company or real estate, especially if you try to bet on companies that are unlikely to flat go under in a recession (like the NASDAQ), is better than holding onto dollars or waiting for those dollars to crash in value before unloading them. And trying to sell of dollar holding for Euro or Yen would likely kick off the crash of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at a chart, the dollar has been going down for quite awhile. Do you think that banks and business haven’t noticed yet and they will all suddenly realize it at the same time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that what crashes are made of?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes that is what crashes are made of, but everyone from Warren Buffet to thousands of posters on internet forums have been calling for everything from a sell off to a crash for over a year now. There has been no shortage of stories in every form of media predicting the demise of the dollar. Every crash I am aware of came as a surprise, can you point to a single instance of a crash that occurred after it was publicly called for by so many people for so long a time?

[/ QUOTE ]

dotcom

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Every crash I am aware of came as a surprise, can you point to a single instance of a crash that occurred after it was publicly called for by so many people for so long a time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, housing? The calls for a sharp decline started around 2003 and didn't materialize until last year or this year, depending on the market.

.com also comes to mind. A lot of people were saying "hey wait, this doesn't make sense, this can't be sustainable" and it took several years for everybody else to "get it."

eastbay

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

.......and housing is expected to keep declining well into 2008 and beyond.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey maybe this guy is smart... oh, maybe not.

to be fair though, it was clear you werent smart before that, saying that everything gets %50 more expensive in absolute terms.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

LMAO...

Do you really think people are just dying to buy those rubels from the Ruskies and Yuan from the Chinese?

Try getting a free marketplace if it wasn't for Uncle Sam providing and protecting the free marketplace.

Worst case scenario, your dollars will have less purchasing power; to buy more cheaply produced foreign goods; but what do you really care since you are playing poker to get yours?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ]

At 2% inflation a year?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Inflation is way higher than 2% year, where do you get that figure? And FYI, the Gov only tells the public the numbers that they want...

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ]

At 2% inflation a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

food and energy are no longer calculated in CPI.. I think. Ya the gov thinks were chumps

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ]

At 2% inflation a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

food and energy are no longer calculated in CPI.. I think. Ya the gov thinks were chumps

[/ QUOTE ]

None of us are poor. This doesn't matter.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think Borodog is correct here. This is likely what will happen if the dollar devaluates much more in the short term. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the dollar drops, consumables that you purchase on a daily / weekly basis will rise. Gas & Food will continue to rise... Not a bad thing? Same paycheck, but your paying ~50% more for your grocery's and gas... I'm not too positive on the depreciating value of the dollar.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is absolutely incorrect.

Only imported goods will rise in price such as a Benz, and then 50% is way too high of a figure. You're really looking at 2-3% increase in price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ]

At 2% inflation a year?

[/ QUOTE ]

food and energy are no longer calculated in CPI.. I think. Ya the gov thinks were chumps

[/ QUOTE ]

i will bet you that food and energy are included in CPI.

name your price.

Barron

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

I have read that the crashes coming down will cause deflation not inflation. Also the dollar was just recently unpinned from Saudi's currency which totals 3.5 trillion of free dollars that will be used without Government approvial this leads to most currencies that are linked to the dollar to undo their relationship; but the corporate and company buying isn't as true no; what these dollars are going into are natural resources,as for the freemarketplace provided by the USGov that is only one thing free dollars which they print. very few walk this earth claiming Washington is helping them. The gutted stock market will collapse also but the reason bread or oil goes up is the speculation and lack of production not the dollar those things are going up anyway anywhere(the price of wheat at the Chicago board is going down and will be for the next three four years)And finally for crashes being surprises they are because of the speed and totallity of them not that they come with no warning. The Great crash of 1929 was predictable and readly understood; the market is an emotional dynamic of its own (many saying there will be a crash but still in it until the end losing money)

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

This isn't a flame, and it is a bit off topic. I don't spend a lot of time on your posts or those of any other ACists on the topic of the collapsing dollar. You all engage in communities that believe strongly in the notion that fiat money must fail eventually. This leads those communities to traffic in theories and data points that point to the impending collapse of the dollar. There is probably very little that could occur that would deter those communities from pumping out that kind of information.

Because of all this, even if I conceded that the fiat dollar must fail, too much exposure to that community would actively harm my ability to make investment decisions. It is all people trying to time a collapse whose occurrence they have already taken for granted. Therefore it is all data that I cannot reasonably act on in my investment framework (I should never make a decision based on trying to time a macro call. I am not qualified and have no intention or notion that I will ever be qualified).

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Don't confuse the CPI with the 'core inflation' measure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_inflation
[ QUOTE ]

The older preferred measure of inflation in the United States was the Consumer Price Index. This is still used as the indicator for most other countries, and is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't confuse the CPI with the 'core inflation' measure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_inflation
[ QUOTE ]

The older preferred measure of inflation in the United States was the Consumer Price Index. This is still used as the indicator for most other countries, and is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Except of course, by removing the products that supposedly have short term volitility but are also very inflationary in the long term, you bias down the resulting number.

Not to mention goods substitution, which has got to be the craziest bunch of [censored] Alan Greenspan ever came up with.

"Well, as prices of the things in the basket of goods increase, the rational consumer will substitute other, cheaper goods, so we should too in our calculations."

No, that's not intended to falsify the inflation numbers AT ALL . . .

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't confuse the CPI with the 'core inflation' measure.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_inflation
[ QUOTE ]

The older preferred measure of inflation in the United States was the Consumer Price Index. This is still used as the indicator for most other countries, and is presented monthly in the US by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This index tends to change more on a month to month basis than does "core inflation". This is because core inflation eliminates products that can have temporary price shocks (i.e. energy, food products). Core inflation is thus intended to be an indicator and predictor of underlying long-term inflation.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Except of course, by removing the products that supposedly have short term volitility but are also very inflationary in the long term, you bias down the resulting number.

Not to mention goods substitution, which has got to be the craziest bunch of [censored] Alan Greenspan ever came up with.

"Well, as prices of the things in the basket of goods increase, the rational consumer will substitute other, cheaper goods, so we should too in our calculations."

No, that's not intended to falsify the inflation numbers AT ALL . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, they didn't come up with that after study after study proved that inflation was upwardly biased or anything. they clearly had the sole intention of biasing the inflation figures downward. and it isn't like that's the only source of upward bias (i.e. not substituting) or anything either...

if you'd like i can find and cite the studies that don't come from the federal reserve board or any govt agency or think tank.

Barron
NOTE: i'm not saying that the fed or other federal agencies/govt's aren't downwardly biasing inflation, only that they didn't form a cabal to get together and decide to do it willy nilly. they had a chioce: an upwardly biased inflation figure, or a downwardly biased inflation figure. they chose the latter for whatever nafarious reason you assign them.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
So all those holding them have a depreciating asset. At some point, the rats are going to desert that ship. This will precipitate the sell-off of USD, and their international value will literally plummet (imho of course).

[/ QUOTE ] This is where your logic fails.

The dollar is not a depreciatING asset. It is a depreciatED asset. This is why the value of the dollar jumps up and down, over and over again, countless times throughout the day.

If the dollar is expected to go down, investors will sell their dollar assets, and the dollar will go down.

You are thus claiming that you have some information that is not reflected in the market value for the dollar, or that you have a more accurate assesment of a dollar's value than anybody else.

Kudos, if that's so. You'll be a wealthy man soon.

[ QUOTE ]
Incorrect huh...... think about what you said here in 3, 5, 7 years. A loaf of bread with be ~7 bucks..... Gas will be ~7 bucks a gallon...

[/ QUOTE ] I only hope that you do the same.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

The Fed has simply reduced the price of America.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Boro,

I agree CPI and Core are both statistical swindles. The macro effect of these swindles is lower wage growth in the blue-collar brackets.

Employers cite the authority of gov't-generated stats, to rationalize low-to-no annual increase in wages. This creates a huge latency between real inflation and resulting wage pressure.

Employers love the CPI and Core numbers. (Especially Core)

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Barron,

I believe you might be off a little here. The prime recipients of the benefits of any currency dilution are the gov't issuer and the 1st-tier in-the-club, no-bid contractors such as Halliburton, Blackstone, and other huge gov't contractors.

All of these spend diluted dollars at pre-dilute prices. As such, they are huge winners in a rigged game.

To state that they flipped a coin on the up-down bias of the numbers (CPI and Core) may be off a little bit.

Nash, in his game theory work cites collusion as super-rational. Given this, it is hard to argue your coin-flip position IF you believe dilution, especially the currency dilution happening now, is fully intentional.

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

Staples go up in dollar terms after the diluted dollars percolate from the govt to the person buying eggs and milk.

This has absolutely nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with more dollars in effective circulation.

"The speculator's greatest and truest ally is underlying conditions." - Livermore

That about sums it up when it comes to the dollar -- and gold.

If you were responsible for the currency and had plans to convert to a new one (like the Amero) you would scoop out all the value before you made the trade.

Wake up
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...rby062806.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero#_note-amero

Its coming. First the dollar must be 'adjusted'.
Which is exactly what is happening, now. (Read the Wikipedia article to see why.)

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
Staples go up in dollar terms after the diluted dollars percolate from the govt to the person buying eggs and milk.

This has absolutely nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with more dollars in effective circulation.

"The speculator's greatest and truest ally is underlying conditions." - Livermore

That about sums it up when it comes to the dollar -- and gold.

If you were responsible for the currency and had plans to convert to a new one (like the Amero) you would scoop out all the value before you made the trade.

Wake up
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...rby062806.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amero#_note-amero

Its coming. First the dollar must be 'adjusted'.
Which is exactly what is happening, now. (Read the Wikipedia article to see why.)

[/ QUOTE ]

the amero isn't happeneing. i don't know where you fall on the "fed is evil" spectrum, but if you are anywhere near ACists and the like, you should be the first on the line of people who think the amero would never happen.

in order for that to occur, the monetary policy of mex, can, and usa would be linked. no way the evil fed would ever share (no matter how small of a share) its ability to set monetary policy nor give up the money it makes off seignorage.

that is from the perspective of the "cabal of the fed" group.

Barron

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

I'm planning an expensive trip to Europe next year and I'm currently saving at 4.5% in dollars. Is there anything I can do to protect against a possible dollar collapse? Can I open a savings account in euros while living in the U.S. and get a 4 to 5% return?

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

So what is a realistic dollardrop? I see Peter Schiff predicts a 50% drop at a minimum. I'm stuck with alot of dollars due to taxproblems and have experienced a 12% drop against my currency in the last 4 weeks. Do I get out now and take the loss or is there any merit to holding on looking for a rally? All comments are much appreciated.

-Nikla

Re: X Post: My thoughts on the coming dollar collapse
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm planning an expensive trip to Europe next year and I'm currently saving at 4.5% in dollars. Is there anything I can do to protect against a possible dollar collapse? Can I open a savings account in euros while living in the U.S. and get a 4 to 5% return?

[/ QUOTE ]

International moneymarket account