Good river card
 

For him. This is a hand from memory sometime earlier in the week. It's 1/2 Stars.

Hero is BB with 86o.

UTG limps, another player limps, a decent TAG on the button raises (could be 2+2, but not sure, but let's assume he's competent and aggressive), SB folds, I call and both limpers call. Both of the limpers are loose passive and random aggressive as always.

The flop comes T95r.

Limpers check, button bets, I call and the limpers call.

The turn is 7, giving a possible flush draw.

I bet, the limpers fold, button raises, I reraise, button caps, I call.

The river is a T.

#%^^&^&%^%$$#%#$#$%@@#@@@

Re: Good river card
 

Fold preflop.

Flop is close getting 9-1 not closing the action on a board where more action is very possible, with a non-nut gutshot draw.

Turn is standard.

Check/call river.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

Flop is close getting 9-1 not closing the action on a board where more action is very possible, with a non-nut gutshot draw.

Turn is standard.

Check/call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is you on the button ILP, am I ever good on this river?

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

Flop is close getting 9-1 not closing the action on a board where more action is very possible, with a non-nut gutshot draw.

Turn is standard.

Check/call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is you on the button ILP, am I ever good on this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not. I always have the nuts. Thats how I pay the bills. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Seriously though I couldnt have one hand here cuz Im not raising J8s preflop and Im not capping a set on the turn. I agree with you though that against me you are never winning on the river, but youre not playing against me, youre playing against a 1-2 player. You have to call this river. This is the classic big pot hope for a miracle call.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
call preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed it for you ILP. Stop folding playable hands for 1 bet getting those odds with morons in the pot.

Of course I cant prove that calling is +EV. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


@ OP. I want to fold the river as well. But you just never know. Call and hope he is tilting or misclicked turn with KKo AA and now thinks he has a valuebet.

Re: Good river card
 

yeah I would say that I never fold this preflop. And I think if you don't spew postflop you shouldn't fold.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed it for you ILP. Stop folding playable hands for 1 bet getting those odds with morons in the pot.

Of course I cant prove that calling is +EV. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]




[/ QUOTE ]

I cant prove that calling preflop is -EV either. Judging from your past posts it is evident to me that you are alot looser than I am in these kind of spots and I have given your suggestions some thought. In the end though, with no proof supporting your ideas or my ideas, I am forced to fall back on the teachings of the books I read long ago. With a garbage unsuited one gapper, with the worst possible relative postion, getting 7-1, I was taught to fold, so I will keep folding.

I am not saying my way is right, but it is very hard for me to change my "tight" ways becuz my formula has been so successful for me. I do believe preflop is a fold. My beliefs pertaing to this specific situatioon have largely been shaped by all the poker authors Ive learned from back in the beginning stages. I am fully aware that they could be wrong.

Re: Good river card
 

Are you referring to SSHE where he talks about how even suited connectors prefer to see the flop for only 1 bet and if you get raised with one you're probably not making money with it in the long run? He also talks about how you can call an unsuited connector for 1 bet in position if there are a lot of limpers. I'm not sure how that all relates to short handed online these days, but it probably still holds and I'm too loose pre-flop in these spots. People tend to play weaker hands in short handed, so relative hand strengths should go up.

Here's a similar situation where I'm probably too loose:

What is your calling range in this situation:

You're in the BB.

An aggressive player raises on the button.
A loose passive player calls in the SB.

Re: Good river card
 

I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-. So,

[ QUOTE ]
I am not saying my way is right, but it is very hard for me to change my "loose" ways becuz my formula has been so successful for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will say however that when you play in a small player pool of bad players calling here can be huge. I can't begin to tell you how much money I've made in the last year because I'll show up on the river with trash in a pf raised pot, or I raise preflop with 7 high, or I 3bet with T high, or I chased a gutshot or AK to the river. 100% of the bad players I play with regularly think I'm an AWFUL player who is running insanely good.

Re: Good river card
 

I would guess its pretty close either way. I would tend to fold in 1-2, simply because I don't think its worth funnelling money down the rake.

You're out of position against a decent player who is not stealing, and two bad players that are going to make you show down the best hand.

You're getting good odds, but I think you'll have to play perfectly to show any long term profit.


[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-. So,


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't just add 8% to 4.8%. the straight draw will complete only about 1/3 of the time. so of those 8% you'll win in 2.7% of cases and that's what you should add to 4.8%. in the remaining 5.3% you'll just lose more money. do the implied odds justify calling? i dunno.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't just add 8% to 4.8%. the straight draw will complete only about 1/3 of the time. so of those 8% you'll win in 2.7% of cases and that's what you should add to 4.8%. in the remaining 5.3% you'll just lose more money. do the implied odds justify calling? i dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I just assumed that the implied odds on flopping an OESD was about neutral. Dunno if they are..? In a 4-way pot it cant be far from..?

Re: Good river card
 

someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could probably pull this out of my database (custom), but it would take some time.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Id also like to point out that even if you could filter these hands out, (By the way I have no idea whether you can do this or not cuz Im not very good at PT) We still need to factor in postion. Calling with 86o in the BB after someone raises and two people coldcall is a lot different than calling with this hand in the BB after two limpers and a raiser. The first scenario is much more favorable than the 2nd.

Re: Good river card
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.097% 18.85% 00.24% 2904821 37686.83 { 86o }
Hand 1: 21.106% 20.18% 00.93% 3109387 142586.50 { ATs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 18.555% 17.67% 00.88% 2722641 136259.00 { 88-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K8s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo-A8o, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 3: 41.242% 40.62% 00.62% 6259403 95236.67 { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }




I think these ranges are realistic.