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-   -   half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=505700)

baronzeus 09-20-2007 08:09 PM

half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
not many people know my backstory but to start off, here is my graph lifetime of high stakes, primarily 50/100+. this is 1.5 years of high stakes, out of 2 years worth of total poker play.

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/7347/handsfi0.jpg


a few interesting things. these thoughts are choppy and im just typing them out as i think of them

the first 250K hands or so were within the first year of me playing poker, and 6 months of playing high stakes. admittedly i wasnt very good at poker during that time. I ran pretty hot and played decently which led to good results. overall though, game no game selection + high variance + mediocre play = bad results. you can see i only won 500 bb in the first 250K hands, including a 1500BB downswing.

the last 250K hands have been vastly different. Ive only had one 200BB+ downswing (about 500BB, at hand 430K or so). people hear me talk about not having 200BB downswings and worrying when i hit those, but generally i dont think people should have those. often.

in the last 250K hands i am about 1.2BB/100. one thing to note is that all of these recent hands are post-party poker era. this is when people have claimed the games have "dried up" so I cant really complain about my winrate, althoguh I like to think im better than 1.2BB/100

I constantly work on my game and I think its evident by my (clearly) greater success in the last year vs my first year. ive only been playing poker for 2 years and i feel like one of the top LHE players in the world, esp wrt HU.

generally one note to make to players is that my results have been considerably worse at the higher limits (200/400+) than at the lower limits (50/100-100/200). i think i'm something like 1.4BB/100 at the lower limits and only .8BB/100 at the higher limits, or something. im only partially upset about this, because i want to be the best, but i think that the competition is much tougher at the highest limits and there is little opportunity for game selection.

i think with more work on my game i can become even better. i constantly think about things and try to make my play better. every time i see another player do something i compare it to what i do and decide what i like better and why.

ring games are good but in general there is a lot less to be won than shorter handed games. players are still fairly bad, and we need as many chances to exploit them as possible.


seriously, game selection is so huge. i cant stress this enough. im a bad example because i dont really exercise this but if i had to guess, i run about 2BB/100 in "good" games, and 0.7BB/100 in "bad" games. the problem is its boring to wait around for a fish, especially nowadays when there arent many fish to go around.

i classify myself from a year ago as a fish.
\

i am an exponentially better player now than i was a year ago.

daryn 09-20-2007 08:16 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
ring games != full table

ProfessorBen 09-20-2007 08:36 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
Did anything happen around hand 250k(take a break, divine inspiration, etc.)? How did you deal with the 1500BB downswing?

kahntrutahn 09-20-2007 08:37 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
so this is 50/100+?

baronzeus 09-20-2007 08:39 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
so this is 50/100+?

[/ QUOTE ]


there are like 70K hands of 30/60 where i am 0.22BB/100.

baronzeus 09-20-2007 08:41 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Did anything happen around hand 250k(take a break, divine inspiration, etc.)? How did you deal with the 1500BB downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]


i started playing 3 tables of mid limits 30/60-50/100. also there was a huge break before that where i made a ton of money playing NL (right after my huge LHE downswing)

SteveL91 09-20-2007 08:43 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
How close to giving up on poker (or at least LHE) were you during that 1500BB downswing?

baronzeus 09-20-2007 08:45 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
How close to giving up on poker (or at least LHE) were you during that 1500BB downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]


i thought i had quit LHE permanently afterwards, when i started winning so much in NLHE. but i was wrong, and i came back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

badbeatLOL 09-20-2007 09:07 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
what made you come back to limit after losing 1500BB?

Sailboats 09-20-2007 10:01 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
Very impressive; congratulations.

PokerBob 09-20-2007 10:03 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
looking back on your drop, do you think you were playing bad or running bad? did one lead to the other? what do you think you learned from it?

pocketpared 09-20-2007 10:13 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
Being up 2000 BB first, probably.

baronzeus 09-20-2007 10:15 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
playing bad and running horribly id guess. like i said, i would consider myself from a year ago a fish

kkcountry 09-20-2007 10:18 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
playing bad and running horribly id guess. like i said, i would consider myself from a year ago a fish

[/ QUOTE ]

so, what did you do (if anything) away from the tables in the past year to not be so fishy?

Kayber2 09-20-2007 10:31 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
congrats. i like this post a lot. i agree the game selection is so huge these days. For me the downswing occurred when party died and everything went shorthanded. I couldn't adjust and it took me six months of study and playing w/ good players in live casino games (learning) to get back in the groove.

JacksonTens 09-21-2007 01:47 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
How much of that is 500/1k+

cos ive seen u run BAD there!

JT

fearme 09-21-2007 04:02 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
im jealous

Abbaddabba 09-21-2007 07:24 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
can you post your midstakes winrates for comparison purposes?

stigmata 09-21-2007 08:11 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How close to giving up on poker (or at least LHE) were you during that 1500BB downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]


i thought i had quit LHE permanently afterwards, when i started winning so much in NLHE. but i was wrong, and i came back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

as an ex-limidonk, i'm actually really impressed that you switched back. You must be the only one from of a whole bunch of converts who actually went back to limit.

As much as I love limit, I just don't have the heart or guts for it after playing NL. More power to you I guess.

baronzeus 09-21-2007 10:48 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
can you post your midstakes winrates for comparison purposes?

[/ QUOTE ]


10/20, 57275 hands, 1.73BB/100
15/30, 37276 hands, 1.70BB/100
20/40, 65695 hands, 1.52BB/100


total midstakes: 160,246 hands, 1.64BB/100

baronzeus 09-21-2007 12:53 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
can you post your midstakes winrates for comparison purposes?

[/ QUOTE ]


10/20, 57275 hands, 1.73BB/100
15/30, 37276 hands, 1.70BB/100
20/40, 65695 hands, 1.52BB/100


total midstakes: 160,246 hands, 1.64BB/100

[/ QUOTE ]


to go along with these numbers. notice not a single 300bb downswing. high stakes variance is sick

http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/5944/midstakesst6.jpg

hoppscot22 09-21-2007 06:28 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How close to giving up on poker (or at least LHE) were you during that 1500BB downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]


i thought i had quit LHE permanently afterwards, when i started winning so much in NLHE. but i was wrong, and i came back [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

you are really good...

i had this same thought after i had a huge lhe downswing player pretty high, started playing nl made a good amount of money but playing lhe is just so much more fun/engaging to me so im back.

J_V 09-22-2007 08:31 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
This graph is the reason why only limit holdem players should be allowed to bitch about variance. High stakes limit holdem is the ultimate test on my the mind and soul. Props to anyone that comes out on top.

One thing I've noticed about myself is that the only way to really come out of a big tailspin like the one in the middle of this graph is to run extremely hot. I think once you get clocked consistently over a period of that length, it's almost impossible not to have your play compromised a great deal. The only way to get to high stakes is to be constantly adjusting and evaluating your game. When a player wins less pots on average then they should for a long, long time, it's inevitable they try to adjust (usually by trying to win more pots with nothing) which turns them into a semi-spewtard. You see this all the time in good players. All of sudden you'll notice that a player that was rock/solid, very good start playing like crap all of sudden.

Speaking for myself only a super hot streak reminds me that to win at this game, you're going to need lots of good hands and have them hold up and that you can't force yourself to wins. I remember this life lesson only until the next downswing and the cycle continues.

Thanks for posting the graph, very interesting.

Heisenb3rg 09-22-2007 12:06 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
Damn, I dont think im ever going to move up now lol

Justin A 09-26-2007 05:04 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
the last 250K hands have been vastly different. Ive only had one 200BB+ downswing (about 500BB, at hand 430K or so). people hear me talk about not having 200BB downswings and worrying when i hit those, but generally i dont think people should have those. often.

in the last 250K hands i am about 1.2BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's been a while since I've done this type of thing, but I'm fairly certain that with a 1.2 bb/100 winrate you should expect multiple 300+ bb downswings just due to normal variance. It seems to me that you've run well wrt to not having big downswings over this span, which isn't the same as running well in $$ terms.

Thanks for posting the graph though, very interesting.

lippy 09-26-2007 05:34 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
You're a sick man.

baronzeus 09-26-2007 05:55 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
immediately after posting this i go on a 500BB upswing in 4k hands

hoppscot22 09-26-2007 06:19 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
hahaha

Heisenb3rg 09-26-2007 09:46 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
immediately after posting this i go on a 500BB upswing in 4k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Its my belief that the poker gods read 2+2...
Both times ive posted about a downswing on 2+2 ive been
boomswitched hard after...

Started out with a 25k hand breakeven stretch when I went pro. Posted on 2+2 "wha wha variance wha wha"

Literally the next day ran 17BB/100 for almost 1000 hands. Followed by the next 80k hands at 2.6BB/100...
sick..

joker122 09-26-2007 11:22 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
immediately after posting this i go on a 500BB upswing in 4k hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Its my belief that the poker gods read 2+2...
Both times ive posted about a downswing on 2+2 ive been
boomswitched hard after...

Started out with a 25k hand breakeven stretch when I went pro. Posted on 2+2 "wha wha variance wha wha"

Literally the next day ran 17BB/100 for almost 1000 hands. Followed by the next 80k hands at 2.6BB/100...
sick..

[/ QUOTE ]

but you would have expected BZ to go on a downswing after a post like his OP, right?

Yeti 09-26-2007 11:29 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
he did, schneids told me he lost $300 one day

NNNNOOOOONAN 09-26-2007 11:38 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
he did, schneids told me he lost $300 one day

[/ QUOTE ]

ya, but that was on a wii prop bet. not poker silly. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

kahntrutahn 09-27-2007 01:30 AM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
75k hands @ 50/100, its the largest amount of hands in the sample; 80%+ is > 50/100; all hands > or = 30/60

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/2...rsept07ef7.jpg


This is 8/16 - 25/50 for comparison. However, the numbers are skewed somewhat by playing in unbeatable games as a prop (i.e. 10/20 with a 6 dollar max rake, even HU):

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8...rsept07iq9.jpg


Lastly, baby stakes (also skewed by 2/4 - 6/12 w/max $6 drop):

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/4...rsept07hf6.jpg




Largest aggregate downswing was -1080 BB over all limits

P.S. I'm praying for a similar upswing to get me out of my career's largest (monetary) downswing.

J_V 09-27-2007 05:49 PM

Re: half a million hands of high stakes limit holdem (graph, thoughts)
 
Very cool graph.


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