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-   -   Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=505479)

Double Eagle 09-20-2007 03:21 PM

Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Villain is 25/12 and has limp called a few times preflop, including once when he raised my continuation bet on the flop. My image may be a bit on the wild side as I have gotten my stack in vs UTG from the first hand on 3 separate occasions with a lot less than the nuts. Only other hand of consequence that I witnessed from villain was this one:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $195.00
Villain (BB): $510.20
UTG: $341.20
Hero (CO): $441.05
BTN: $411.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Villain raises to $20.00</font>, UTG calls $12.00

Flop: ($41) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Villain checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($41) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Villain bets $24.00</font>, UTG calls $24.00

River: ($89) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Villain checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $72.00</font>, Villain calls $72.00

Pot Size: $233.00 ($2 Rake)

Villain had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and WON (+$115.00)
UTG had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$116.00)

Now on to the hand:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $189.75
Hero (BB): $487.10
UTG: $400.40
MP: $200.00
CO: $574.90
BTN: $138.70

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $2.00, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($5) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, CO calls $3.00

Turn: ($11) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, CO calls $12.00

River: ($35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $26.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $150.00</font>, [i]Hero says WTF??????

shpanko 09-20-2007 03:24 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
ugh this is a sick spot, I don't think I can fold. It sure looks like he has the nuts though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Munificence 09-20-2007 03:28 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
It's so sick, but I've almost never been in this spot and the guy hasn't turned over the nuts.

solids 09-20-2007 03:33 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Gross. Due to your laggy TI, there might be justification for a crying call here. But I don't like it too much. You're a representing a flush all the way, and he's telling you he can beat it.

RAHZero 09-20-2007 03:33 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I hate your flop bet, but w/e. As played, turbo call with fist pump. Too deep to shove here, but you're definitely ahead of his range, which is any straight, any flush, and a ton of AsX combos.

Double Eagle 09-20-2007 03:34 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I hate your flop bet, but w/e. As played, turbo call with fist pump. Too deep to shove here, but you're definitely ahead of his range, which is any straight, any flush, and a ton of AsX combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's to hate about the flop bet?

solids 09-20-2007 03:37 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Too deep to shove here, but you're definitely ahead of his range, which is any straight, any flush, and a ton of AsX combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't leading into a monotone flop on all streets pretty much define your hand?

RUDIKULOUS 09-20-2007 03:42 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Too deep to shove here, but you're definitely ahead of his range, which is any straight, any flush, and a ton of AsX combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't leading into a monotone flop on all streets pretty much define your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really, his range is pretty strong to do it but its not only a flush. Id prob call since you beat a tooon a flushes .

RAHZero 09-20-2007 03:43 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate your flop bet, but w/e. As played, turbo call with fist pump. Too deep to shove here, but you're definitely ahead of his range, which is any straight, any flush, and a ton of AsX combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's to hate about the flop bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just pot it. And if you guys are betting all three streets here with made flushes only, then you're way too passive. I'd triple barrel here with KQ, 78, Q8, AJ, JT, AsTx, As9x, As4x as well as flushes.

And there are also a ton more flushes that we beat than that beat us.

solids 09-20-2007 03:48 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd triple barrel here with KQ, 78, Q8, AJ, JT, AsTx, As9x, As4x as well as flushes.



[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I suppose I'm triple-barreling with more than a flush after all, and in turn, I could probably find a call here.

That said, that's still a pretty ballsy raise if villain has just a straight/set. Wouldn't you more expect a raise to around $75 or so?

Edit to add: All I'm saying is that an 8x raise on the river seems a lot like he has a flush and is hoping you will call with a smaller flush.

cs3 09-20-2007 03:49 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
im never fodling this. i think villain can show up with 2 pr hands with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] pretty often, not to mention K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q thinking his straight is the nuts on the river. add in the times has smaller flush and i think a call is correct.
if villain is a donk any of those hands are very likely....

and if the guy is NOT a donk then hes never just calling 2 streets with the nuts when there is over 200bb's behind, especially becasue it looks like hero loves his hand.

call?

Jay Riall 09-20-2007 03:54 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I fold this quickly and I'm a station.

terp 09-20-2007 04:18 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
i can't recall ever having been in this spot and i'm fairly lost considering it, so i'd revert to game theory and call

martijn 09-20-2007 04:42 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I really really really wanna call, but in reality, do you ever get shown something else than Ax spades?

rakk 09-20-2007 04:49 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I think this is a fold (not that I do, but i think you should). Villain almost always has AsXs or 78ss here. If he's good, ballsy, reads that you can lay down big hands, and has the As for the blocker on the nut flush, he might be bluffing here. But I don't think you see that very often at all.

Munificence 09-20-2007 04:50 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold (not that I do, but i think you should). Villain almost always has AsXs or 78ss here. If he's good, ballsy, reads that you can lay down big hands, and has the As for the blocker on the nut flush, he might be bluffing here. But I don't think you see that very often at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen that play at small stakes NLHE.

Double Eagle 09-20-2007 05:09 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Are there really that many reasonable smaller flushes in his range? Also, does his play in the first hand make it less likely that he's value raising less than a straight?

tannenj 09-20-2007 05:31 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
i'm not folding

Unknown Soldier 09-20-2007 05:34 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
i'm not folding

[/ QUOTE ]

gjim 09-20-2007 05:36 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I think you gotta fold. From the first hand he looks like a thinking player and you've already shown you're willing to get it in with less than the nuts--looks like a value raise.

Conan776 09-20-2007 05:37 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a fold (not that I do, but i think you should). Villain almost always has AsXs or 78ss here. If he's good, ballsy, reads that you can lay down big hands, and has the As for the blocker on the nut flush, he might be bluffing here. But I don't think you see that very often at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never seen that play at small stakes NLHE.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's cause no one at SSNL folds a non-nut flush in this spot.

Etats360 09-20-2007 05:50 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I always tell myself to fold but end up making an excuse to call here.

Jay Riall 09-20-2007 05:55 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

Shizzle12345 09-20-2007 05:55 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
How the hell can you even consider folding here. If you have a wild image and if you can 3barrel this with a wide range and he knows that then i call here always. He could easily do this with lower flushes maybe even 'trapping' with striaght or set..

Unknown Soldier 09-20-2007 05:57 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Etats360 09-20-2007 06:00 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying this reduced the chances he's value betting worse? He limped in, though.

Noam Chomsky 09-20-2007 06:17 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying this reduced the chances he's value betting worse? He limped in, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying if the guy had the naked As he'd be more inclined to just call the river rather than turning it into a bluff, hence reducing his bluff frequency.

wdead 09-20-2007 06:18 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Pretty easy fold vs. villain described. He has Kxss+ always.

Etats360 09-20-2007 06:20 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying this reduced the chances he's value betting worse? He limped in, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying if the guy had the naked As he'd be more inclined to just call the river rather than turning it into a bluff, hence reducing his bluff frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]
Q high flush&gt;naked As

wdead 09-20-2007 06:20 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Also I am mega pissed this is now a standard fold because 2 years ago this was a standard call/shove. Games are so nitty now its sad.

Noam Chomsky 09-20-2007 06:22 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying this reduced the chances he's value betting worse? He limped in, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying if the guy had the naked As he'd be more inclined to just call the river rather than turning it into a bluff, hence reducing his bluff frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]
Q high flush&gt;naked As

[/ QUOTE ]

Either your reading comprehension isn't very strong, or your posting random facts in every thread as part of some prop bet.

Jay Riall 09-20-2007 06:23 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you think hes playing the naked As?

wdead 09-20-2007 06:23 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
Also this is never AsXo at 200nl

Unknown Soldier 09-20-2007 06:24 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
yeah i got that now, just was never in the frame of mind that he could be bluffing here. Even w/o the A this is sooo rarely a bluff. Anyway, if he is bluffing he could be doing it with the K since there is a straight draw too.

jojje33 09-20-2007 06:25 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
I would call this bet with a bad feeling. But its hard to really put him on the nuts as he played the hand. Shorthanded the nuts usually min raises u on turn or river...

But then again... If he is not a true donkey... its a weird bet...

wdead 09-20-2007 06:27 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
its hard to really put him on the nuts as he played the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO its the hand that is the easiest to put him on and makes the most sense. He would raise a smaller flush earlier to protect.

Etats360 09-20-2007 06:34 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact an Ace is out there makes it an even clearer fold imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're saying this reduced the chances he's value betting worse? He limped in, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's saying if the guy had the naked As he'd be more inclined to just call the river rather than turning it into a bluff, hence reducing his bluff frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]
Q high flush&gt;naked As

[/ QUOTE ]

Either your reading comprehension isn't very strong, or your posting random facts in every thread as part of some prop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, i don't konw what I'm talking about. I got confused. Do you want to make a prop bet, tho?

Double Eagle 09-20-2007 06:39 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
For those that want to fold, is this a call if he makes it something reasonable, let's say 90 or so?

wdead 09-20-2007 06:42 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
For those that want to fold, is this a call if he makes it something reasonable, let's say 90 or so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I think so. You will be getting much better odds so you have to be right alot less. Maybe also he shows up with two pair, or a smaller flush. This overbet just screams a terribly played nut flush.

Bukem_ 09-20-2007 06:44 PM

Re: Huge overbet on river, I have a flush, WTF?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Also this is never AsXo at 200nl

[/ QUOTE ]

well thats pretty much exactly why you would call.

I'd typically fold pretty quickly vs a guy like this.

It changes if i've ever seen him make any big bluff ever and since he obviously sucks at value betting I'd call pretty quickly expecting to see As.


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