flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

don't recognize the CO, but from mined stats, he seems nitty, running at 14/10/2 over an 800 hand sample.

button is bertkc. he's a TAG that is capable of doing some crazy stuff by getting aggro in the wrong spots. he seems to playing solid this session though, and we have yet to tangle. i am playing fairly tight. stats are 21/17/4.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $283.75
BB: $200.00
UTG: $91.90
MP: $458.55
CO: $205.00
BTN: $275.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.00</font>, BTN calls $7.00, Hero calls $6.00, BB folds

Flop: ($23) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $40.00</font>, Hero ????

i would 3-bet squeeze often, but the opener had nitty stats.

now what to do on the flop???

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

I think you should reraise and get the CO out. I think your way ahead of button on the flop. CO won't like the reraise action. Probably fold the best hand. And if your behind in the hand to the button you also have the nut flush draw. I don't see how you can fold here, and calling is too weak. Raise!!!!

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

This is one of the rare spots where I like a call with a combo draw hoping that CO overcalls

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

interesting. I just ran some possible hands through poker stove. The worst hand thats likely that the button has to me is AK which only leaves you with roughly 35% equity in the pot. Being optimistic is AQ which your even money with. So I'm not sure I might get involved now. And just calling is horrible. I think I might have to change my repsonse to fold. If you had position I might just smooth call to see what villian does on the turn. But oop I think folding isn't such a bad play here. Good post

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
interesting. I just ran some possible hands through poker stove. The worst hand thats likely that the button has to me is AK which only leaves you with roughly 35% equity in the pot. Being optimistic is AQ which your even money with. So I'm not sure I might get involved now. And just calling is horrible. I think I might have to change my repsonse to fold. If you had position I might just smooth call to see what villian does on the turn. But oop I think folding isn't such a bad play here. Good post

[/ QUOTE ]

AK isn't too likely IMO because he probably would have 3-bet that pre-flop. as well as KK and AA. not saying they are totally out of the question, but it's a small %.

figuring out COs range at this point is pretty difficult, even w/his tight stats, because he has just made a pfr and standard c-bet. (it was into 2 players, so I would assume he has at least something a lot of the time)

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

definitely not folding.

COs bet is pretty weak on the flop so I think the TAG btn's range is a lot wider than usual in this spot.

not sure whats best on the flop. cold calling kinda sucks cause your implied odds on a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] aren't that great. and I gotta think he'll be checking behind most of his medium strength hands on the turn a lot of the time/charging you to draw with the goods. otoh, I can't see him calling a 3bet w/ a worse hand. I mean he's probably just gonna jam A9 and a set and fold everything else, maybe you get him to call w/ worse spades sometimes which is awesome but not that often imo.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]

not sure whats best on the flop. cold calling kinda sucks cause your implied odds on a aren't that great. and I gotta think he'll be checking behind most of his medium strength hands on the turn a lot of the time/charging you to draw with the goods. otoh, I can't see him calling a 3bet w/ a worse hand. I mean he's probably just gonna jam A9 and a set and fold everything else, maybe you get him to call w/ worse spades sometimes which is awesome but not that often imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty solid analysis, pretty much sums up why this decision is pretty difficult

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

I would probably call/jam if CO shoves.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

fwiw I think calling and raising are close but folding is gross

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

I aggree if CO overcalls that gives you the odds to draw. But, being out of position here. You just don't know if Co is going to call a raise and a call here. I don't think I would call here. Also, alot of players might just smooth call with ace king here. I don't think AK always has to reraise, so don't discount that hand. True AA or KK probably would, so those hands seem less likely. My gut thinks it's AK, and a set seems the least likely. I still don't like it OOP though.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

depends if btn will felt with a draw. if he wont call, if he will raise.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

raising looks extremely strong in this spot, as there are only a couple combo draws you can reasonably have. Button also doesn't often have a hand that can stand a raise from you here, given preflop.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

Just call, why would you wanna 4b and blow someone off of a draw/ run into a huge hand? You certainly wont fold a better hand, maybe they will call with a big draw though...

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

I hate calling. If we hit a flush we might not get paid off and also we want AQ out of there. We are likely ahead of buttons range. I just shove it in now.

I don't like calling and jamming either. It looks more bluffy and AQ will be more likely to call.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just call, why would you wanna 4b and blow someone off of a draw/ run into a huge hand? You certainly wont fold a better hand, maybe they will call with a big draw though...

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, and i probably should have mentioned this in my OP, I am pretty sure the button could show up here w/a draw.

Re: flop TP + FD from the sb, lots of action on flop...
 

I think i would raise this,

the pot is decent, and given your analysis (to which i agree)
button doesn't have that strong of a hand equity wise vs us.

Hoever, the problem with just calling OOP IMO is not getting any value when the flush hits, because it will be painfully obvious and kill your action

i vote shove

i do expect a set from button a certain % of the time, but id doesn't have to the too high to make the shove +EV