Bills +17 at NE
 

Warning: Low real analysis

I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL? I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation). Their offense has been anemic, but this is still a divisional game.

Does this line sound right to the gurus of this sub-forum? I've remembered a few INDY lines this big vs. HOU(don't remember if they covered or not) in the past few years, but I just don't buy it.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

When somebody romps on national tv, you can usually find a little value by fading them the next week.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I think there are very few NFL teams that will beat any other NFL team by 17 points 50% of the time.

- C -

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think there are very few NFL teams that will beat any other NFL team by 17 points 50% of the time.

and if it was Houston romping on Nat'l TV, this line would be 11, not 17

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

[ QUOTE ]
Does this line sound right

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

[ QUOTE ]
Does this line sound right

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good points... I was thinking the same thing concerning the reacting to spygate in such a way... imagine the alternative, if they begin playing poorly, especially right after they get caught and are forced to "stop cheating" then people would definately be more inclined to think the "cheating" was their reason for being so dominating the past few years, Super Bowls would be criticized even moreso etc... I look for them to continue dominating (by 17, hmmm... hard to say)

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is there alot of merit in History? I know that is a newb question but I see it given quite a bit of weight in analysis with some of the posters around here. My brain doesn't usually function that way, the closer dates are obviously good for analyzing, but 3-4 years ago with different players and such... I dunno. I am here to improve on analyzing lines/games and would love some advice in this area.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, is there alot of merit in History? I know that is a newb question but I see it given quite a bit of weight in analysis with some of the posters around here. My brain doesn't usually function that way, the closer dates are obviously good for analyzing, but 3-4 years ago with different players and such... I dunno. I am here to improve on analyzing lines/games and would love some advice in this area.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't put a ton of weight in this, but this along with some of the other factors which have been mentioned makes me like buff +17 decent. I'm not going crazy here.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

The problem with it is that with that huge of a spread you can still get one team killing another and wind up having a back-door cover from something stupid happening. NE up 30-10 in the middle of the 4th Q, you really think they're gonna care if they stonewall Buff with under 4:00 to play? Lee Evans can't go deep to cover while the Pats are all celebrating the win on the sideline?

Giving that many points is ridiculous. I don't have +17 on the books I use so I'm hoping it hits that by game time, but I still like them at +16 and probably even +15. I'm definitely hoping the public feels the same way most others here seem to, and bet that line up to +17 or OH PLEASE GOD +17.5 where I'll bet heavy.

BTW, I need to give props to Naj for my 50% 17 point favs comment...was discussing with him elsewhere and he made that point, I reiterated it here.

- C -

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know this sounds very BSP-like, but is there really any way a team should be this huge of a dog to any other team in the NFL?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes

[ QUOTE ]
I realize that NE has been creaming their competition and are playing at home, but BUF lost by the closest of margins to DEN(who would probably be a single-digit dog to NE in the same situation).

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver outgained Buffalo huge in that game, but had trouble getting in the end zone, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

[ QUOTE ]
Does this line sound right

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup

Keep in mind Buffalo lost whatshisname at CB in free agency to the 49ers and began the season with what was considered a suspect secondary before being hammered with injuries in week 1.

I believe that with divisional teams that know each other better, 'anything can happen', but I sure wouldn't put anything behind Buffalo in this one. And since New England seems to be reacting to the whole cheatergate thing with an air of self righteousness, I wonder if the chances of them staying focused for a lesser opponent after a big televised game aren't higher than normal.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not a bad analysis.

I don't think their secondary injuries are that major; they chose not to re-sign Clements because the "Tampa 2" de-values CB play to an extent. Plus the drop-offs from Webster-Greer and Simpson-Leonard are slim to none IMO. Of course it hurts their depth when NE decides to spread the field. The big disappointment so far defensively has been the pass-rush; Aaron Schobel has been invisible. We knew the run defense would stink.

Offensively, I don't know. They were supposed to be at least average, but they have sucked so far. The OL is improved, and Lynch is the real deal. Basically teams are taking away Evans deep and asking Losman what else he can do...so far the answer is nothing.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, so I'll stop rambling. I guess I'd take the points.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I'm a huge homer and am actually going to the game for a change.

That being said, I would never lay 17. Here are my reasons, FWIW:

Divisional matchup.
NE weather will not be a factor.
Buffalo as a team is coming together this week with an us-againt-the-world mentality.
This line is inflated because people like my mother-in-law are now talking about how NE will win by 17 easy.
17 pts in the NFL is a bad bet regardless of the matchup.
and finally
If BUF scores one TD, NE need to score 4 times and 3 have to be TDs........just to push.


This is not to say the can't completely dominate BUF. I'm just saying it's a bad bet no matter how you slice it.


Here's what you have to ask yourself.

Will BUF score 13 pts?
If yes, NE needs to score 5 times and mostly TDs.

Will NE be using Maroney a bit more this week?
I would think so.


Will Belichick be doing things this week like scoring a TD on a 4th and goal from the 2 up 31-14 in the 4th because he thinks LT is a little bitch? I don't think so.

I see a balanced attack this week with a lot of sustained drives and clock management.



Just one mans opinion. This game has back door cover written all over it...

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I was all over the Pats the first two games. They have improved on both sides of of the ball. It's a joke how much their wide receiver core has improved.

If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17. But it's not.

This game is Ho-Hum in New England. Sure, they will win, but will they care enough to play through 4 quarters and cover 17? Not likely.

Game 1 was against the Jets, who they dislike.

Game 2 was against San Diego, who whined that they should have won last years playoff game (and would of if the retard who made the 4th Qtr-4th down interception would have fallen down instead of trying to run with it). That and video-tape gate had them with an 'us against the world' mentality.

Game 3 (this week) is against 0-2 Buffalo. Yawn.

Game 4 the following week is another national TV game, a Monday nighter against Cincy.

Classic sandwich game.

Take the 17.

Caveat: Big Pats fan---Plus I don't usually bet games with high spreads.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

currently Bills+16

will it go any lower? to like Bill+14

will that make a diff?

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was all over the Pats the first two games. They have improved on both sides of of the ball. It's a joke how much their wide receiver core has improved.

If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17. But it's not.

This game is Ho-Hum in New England. Sure, they will win, but will they care enough to play through 4 quarters and cover 17? Not likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent point. My forecast is 24-6 in the 4th and Buf gets a backdoor cover late.

Of course, NE's Off could go ballistic again, but I'm willing to take that risk. I see a lot more Maroney and company on the ground. SDG's weakness was Pass D, you'd be nuts to try to run all over Merriman, Williams and crew.

Esp when they don't cover Moss on fly patterns.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
currently Bills+16

will it go any lower? to like Bill+14

will that make a diff?

[/ QUOTE ]15 and 16 are relatively dead numbers compared to 14 and 17, so if you're going to bet the Bills you want at a minimum 14.5.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
2003:

@ buff, buff wins 31-0
@ NE, NE wins 31-0

2004:

@ buff, NE wins 31-17
@ NE, NE wins 29-6

2005:

@ NE, NE wins 21-16
@ Buff, NE wins 35-7

2006:

@ NE, NE wins 19-17
@ Buff, NE wins 28-6

NE seems to squeak out a close one in their first meetings, whether it be home or away, then destroy them in the 2nd, i like buff +17 decent

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, I guess Belichick gets all the signals figured out by the second game and then it's curtains, hehehe.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

Lot of good points made. It may very well be that at that many points in this particular situation, Buffalo deserves attention, and I just personally don't know enough to like it.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I already have enough of Buffalo +17.5 -120. I am now considering getting more of Buffalo +17.5 -120 in anticipation of a middle attempt closer to game time. New England -16.0 -110 is enough for a +EV middle.

Edit: Problem is Buffalo +17.5 -120 is tough to find now...

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

Did you load up extra on Buf +17.5 -120 in aspirations of the middle? If so then good call, as there's no way that price was going to stick around. I've got a decent chunk of Buf +17.5 -130 and +17.5 -120, although I never planned to middle.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I'm just below my 1/2 Kelly Stake of Buf +17.5 -120. So I'd rather let that amount ride than pay the juice for the middle. The next time I see a 17 NFL point favorite (whenever that occurs) I'll have to remember to load up in anticipation of a future middle opportunity!

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I think you all are all brilliant, the more I consider the factors the more I like Bills... I totally agree with PSU when it comes to these huge spreads in the NFL. We all know it could happen, NE can come out and dominate, but the bottom line is in order for this sort of line to hit ALOT of things have to happen right for NE, period. It can happen, they could win 34-6... easy, some days. But the question is (from above) could it happen 50% of the time and I simply don't think so. The more i look at it the more I am leaning toward Bills. Perhaps I'll stay away (I like so many other games why risk it)

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

hmm. buffalo, no corners, no defensive line, an anemic air attack, no running back.

hmm. new england, uh, gee, what's a guy to say? r. moss, maybe 500 yards receiving in one game? motivation? this IS a division game, points and wins MATTER.

lay the 17.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

Anyone betting NE -17 who didn't bet NE last week is out of his f'in mind.

CORRECTION: Anyone who bets -17 in the NFL is out of his/her f'in mind...

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

good luck buffalo +16.5

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone who bets -17 in the NFL is out of his/her f'in mind...

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
points and wins MATTER.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone has picked the Bills to win this game.

Do you really think the Pats will try to pile on points in the 4th QTR in week 3 because when the playoffs start they might need the 7th tie-breaker against another 14-2 team?

================================================== ==========
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, seeing as they've never won a Super Bowl by more than 3 points [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If this game were the Super Bowl, I'd lay the 17.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, seeing as they've never won a Super Bowl by more than 3 points [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

But they weren't playing this Bills team either [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

Bills +17 Easy Money

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bills +17 Easy Money

[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit, now I kinda want to lay the 17...

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

- C -

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

do it, and ban me. cuz i put my picks like everybody else in the forum

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bills +17 Easy Money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think many people are saying this.
They're saying NE -17 is a horrible, horrible bet.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
points and wins MATTER.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone has picked the Bills to win this game.

Do you really think the Pats will try to pile on points in the 4th QTR in week 3 because when the playoffs start they might need the 7th tie-breaker against another 14-2 team?

================================================== ==========
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make one enormous assumption: the patriots will go 14/2. if brady's injured, their center goes down, moss tears an MCL, you can hope for 14/2, but good godd__ned luck in getting it. teams don't think that way, not with a %100 major injury rate plaguing their rosters year in and year out: they bank their money today and hope for the best tomorrow.

now then, addressing other caveats, consider: the patriots won 10 of the previous 21 games by 17 or greater points. this, from a team by their own analysis, working with mediocre talent at the receiving position. of those 11 failures, 5 were loses. the patriots, when winning, scored 17 or more points on their opponents ~65% of the time.

with a revamped passing game, they have increased their margin of victory, and appear even more insistent on beating their opponents powerfully. that this is a division game, and therefore job 1, makes questions of motivation rather immaterial, as was my intent in so stating. had i known that i would be questioned by the bean counters i would have been more analytical and precise in my presentation (i.e. done your thinking for you).

the question really has less to with the patriots, who may very well have a mediocre day, scoring < 30 pts., than it does with their opposition. do any of you really imagine the bills capable of scoring > 12pts in today's match-up? verrrrry remote. the fact that this IS a divisional game, IS a patriots offense capable of scoring at will on any but the elite of the NFL (hmm, perhaps the bills are "elite"?), IS a buffalo defense lacking a run stopper, no corners, and inept at best on the offensive side of the ball, lacking depth and/or well schooled talent on the OLine ; without a passing game to spread a defense just proven against SD's acclaimed running game (unwarranted, really) not only makes a bet on 17 points or greater reasonable, it demands it. that the cover 2 has no need of corners, as was claimed by another poster above, is seriously flawed reasoning, but even if true, without the ability to stop the run, when the patriots enter the red zone what exactly will buffalo do? the idea of the cover 2 is to keep the deep threat contained. ok, bend and not break may work in the NFL: but NOT break is the operative inclusion.

i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

if you get nothing else from this post, take this to heart: good bets have NOTHING to do with the breadth of the spread per se, and everything to do with the teams the line seeks to define.

i hasten to remind you of SF's 1994 championship year, when regularly heading to post as prohibitive favorites. believe me, the books would have loved to boost the line higher could they so have managed, but because so many bettors were reluctant to lay the odds, said books were constrained by practical considerations to adopt relaxed lines. i made very good money on SF that year. indeed, their purchase of neon deion for cb duties, has much in common with the patriots' acquisition of moss and that tight end from miami: deals designed to make them unstoppable. and just as i bet the 94 49'ers without the slightest trepidation, i will do so with the patriots in 07--that is, until injuries begin dogging them, as i suspect it will, later in the season.

it is nonsense, indeed stupid, to avoid lines "because they are too high", as if there were some point beyond which the well known ability of the odds maker to establish a 50/50 split, not only in betting opinion, but in actual fact, has ceased to function properly.

in this case, they are not high enough: that is my opinion; the patriots are the team to beat in the NFL, by a wide margin, and their degree of talent annihilated a very competent (albeit compromised by turner's appointment to the head coaching job) SD, without, it appeared to me, laboring at the task.

can the patriots beat buffalo by 50 points? yes, i think they can. i like the bet. i like it A LOT. so sue me.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you're saying you'll pay 100:1 on the ML and 3:1 on Bills +16.5, so I'll say put your money where your mouth is. I'll even give you an edge on your own numbers. I'll take:

Bills ML for $25 to win $2,375 (95 to 1)
Bills +16.5 for $100 to win $275 (2.75 to 1)

- C -

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
points and wins MATTER.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone has picked the Bills to win this game.

Do you really think the Pats will try to pile on points in the 4th QTR in week 3 because when the playoffs start they might need the 7th tie-breaker against another 14-2 team?

================================================== ==========
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make one enormous assumption: the patriots will go 14/2. if brady's injured, their center goes down, moss tears an MCL, you can hope for 14/2, but good godd__ned luck in getting it. teams don't think that way, not with a %100 major injury rate plaguing their rosters year in and year out: they bank their money today and hope for the best tomorrow.

now then, addressing other caveats, consider: the patriots won 10 of the previous 21 games by 17 or greater points. this, from a team by their own analysis, working with mediocre talent at the receiving position. of those 11 failures, 5 were loses. the patriots, when winning, scored 17 or more points on their opponents ~65% of the time.

with a revamped passing game, they have increased their margin of victory, and appear even more insistent on beating their opponents powerfully. that this is a division game, and therefore job 1, makes questions of motivation rather immaterial, as was my intent in so stating. had i known that i would be questioned by the bean counters i would have been more analytical and precise in my presentation (i.e. done your thinking for you).

the question really has less to with the patriots, who may very well have a mediocre day, scoring < 30 pts., than it does with their opposition. do any of you really imagine the bills capable of scoring > 12pts in today's match-up? verrrrry remote. the fact that this IS a divisional game, IS a patriots offense capable of scoring at will on any but the elite of the NFL (hmm, perhaps the bills are "elite"?), IS a buffalo defense lacking a run stopper, no corners, and inept at best on the offensive side of the ball, lacking depth and/or well schooled talent on the OLine ; without a passing game to spread a defense just proven against SD's acclaimed running game (unwarranted, really) not only makes a bet on 17 points or greater reasonable, it demands it. that the cover 2 has no need of corners, as was claimed by another poster above, is seriously flawed reasoning, but even if true, without the ability to stop the run, when the patriots enter the red zone what exactly will buffalo do? the idea of the cover 2 is to keep the deep threat contained. ok, bend and not break may work in the NFL: but NOT break is the operative inclusion.

i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

if you get nothing else from this post, take this to heart: good bets have NOTHING to do with the breadth of the spread per se, and everything to do with the teams the line seeks to define.

i hasten to remind you of SF's 1994 championship year, when regularly heading to post as prohibitive favorites. believe me, the books would have loved to boost the line higher could they so have managed, but because so many bettors were reluctant to lay the odds, said books were constrained by practical considerations to adopt relaxed lines. i made very good money on SF that year. indeed, their purchase of neon deion for cb duties, has much in common with the patriots' acquisition of moss and that tight end from miami: deals designed to make them unstoppable. and just as i bet the 94 49'ers without the slightest trepidation, i will do so with the patriots in 07--that is, until injuries begin dogging them, as i suspect it will, later in the season.

it is nonsense, indeed stupid, to avoid lines "because they are too high", as if there were some point beyond which the well known ability of the odds maker to establish a 50/50 split, not only in betting opinion, but in actual fact, has ceased to function properly.

in this case, they are not high enough: that is my opinion; the patriots are the team to beat in the NFL, by a wide margin, and their degree of talent annihilated a very competent (albeit compromised by turner's appointment to the head coaching job) SD, without, it appeared to me, laboring at the task.

can the patriots beat buffalo by 50 points? yes, i think they can. i like the bet. i like it A LOT. so sue me.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this a "level"? haha funny guys, real funny.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

no way im reading that, cliff notes?

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

cliff notes: i followed the logic of 17 being too many points for an nfl team twice...once, drunk, last night for 1u, and again this morning, forgetting about last night, again for 1u..

so now i have 2u on the [censored] bills at the best team in football..

gogogo..

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

Just one note. Backdoor covers are partly due to the winning team letting up. The Pats aren't very likely to do that, given that they demolished the Jets in the 3rd & 4th quarters and then played even with the Chargers the entire second half to maintain the halftime lead as the final margin of victory.

That said with all you guys on the Bills I decided the tease the Pats down to 11 which you can call donkish but I feel much more comfortable with that margin, as two touchdowns will do the job.

Re: Bills +17 at NE
 

I'm just hoping they win.