tough spot with AQ
 

no reads, but im getting great odds on river and im wondering if 33/77 doesnt raise turn given the increasing drawiness of the board. that being said, how often is this really a bluff? play diff on any street? b/f riv? c/c riv?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Storkdelamork: $1,679.00
Transkilla: $1,187.00
The__Whale4: $1,052.00
Hero: $2,798.00
frogbros: $1,491.00
IRunSoGood: $1,005.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">The__Whale4 raises to $35.00</font>, Hero calls $35.00, frogbros calls $35.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($120) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
The__Whale4 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $87.00</font>, frogbros calls $87.00, The__Whale4 folds

Turn: ($294) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $219.00</font>, frogbros calls $219.00

River: ($732) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $557.00</font>, <font color="red">frogbros raises all-in to $1,150.00</font>, Hero calls $593.00

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I mighta sized bets differently, but line woulda been same except I'd fold river to the shove

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

6 combinations of sets and i am getting ~4:1. that means i have to find 1.5 combinations of hands that are bluffing in order to make it profitable, right?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I don't expect to be shown a bluff here bawss [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

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Yea, sounds about right

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

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Agree with this, and you are almost never going to be shown a bluff or a worse hand value-raising on the river, pretty easy fold imo.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

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Yea, sounds about right

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i agree with this, was 7 tabling so i couldnt focus THAT much on betsizing today.

im still not completely convinced that this is an "easy" fold given the odds and his v limited range. plus hes unknown.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

how about a C/C river? Give a missed flush draw a chance to bet. As played im probably too weak to fold, but it def looks like your beat here a lot

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

think he has A9-AJ more than a draw, thats why i bet.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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how often is this really a bluff?

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Never?

Maybe at 100/200+ there's some leveling going on where this can be a bluff, but at MSNL no one is going to bluff laying those odds.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

you guys arent being reasonable. if this is "never" a bluff, how often do you think 77/33 plays like this? "always"?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

what odds would you want before calling this?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

9:1?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

i would check the river

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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how often is this really a bluff?

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Never?

Maybe at 100/200+ there's some leveling going on where this can be a bluff, but at MSNL no one is going to bluff laying those odds.

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This is true for the most part, but I've seen it done at mid stakes so I wouldn't say never, but still not often enough for me to call this.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

is the EV of checking the river that much lower than betting it?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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you guys arent being reasonable. if this is "never" a bluff, how often do you think 77/33 plays like this? "always"?

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def not always, he should be raising sets here some % of the time.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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is the EV of checking the river that much lower than betting it?

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no it's not, not without reads or meta. with some sort of reads or meta it could be much less EV than betting it, or it could be much more than betting it.

vs an unknown i would check it for sure.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

i think an unknown has a worse ace way more than a missed draw. and i dont think hes bluffing his missed draw on this board like ever. id say c/c v small or c/f to any reasonalble bet IF i checked.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I think I'd c/c most bets on the river here w/ no reads or meaningful stats.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I like your line. Easy fold to the river shove. From an unknown who hasn't shown a tendancy to play absoutly insane id estimate the chances of this being a bluff or a value bet with a wrose hand being &gt;10%.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I C/C river. Some aces fold to 3 barrels/some busted draws bet.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

While I appreciate the argument that the villain has weaker aces more often than flush draws, that certainly doesn't mean he is calling with those hands.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

yeah really hes just never showing up here with a bluff as an unknown

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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While I appreciate the argument that the villain has weaker aces more often than flush draws, that certainly doesn't mean he is calling with those hands.

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i dont assume people fold vs me.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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While I appreciate the argument that the villain has weaker aces more often than flush draws, that certainly doesn't mean he is calling with those hands.

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i dont assume people fold vs me.

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fair enough, i've never played with you and your image may be such that this is an uber std. spot to bet.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

that and unknowns usually call a lot

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

He'd have to expect you to fold this hand at least to want to bluff here and thats a [censored] to ask.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

Sick.. river is never a bluff.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I mean this has got to be one of the worst hands in your range that isn't air/missed draw. I doubt he's saying to himself "Well he'll fold AQ/AJ and those are so likely that i shove"

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I def bet the river people think that three barrels are always bluffs, he'll prob calls with mid pair.

Checking to not get c/r is a horrible, horrible argument. Checking because there is almost 0 value is valid though. Although we essentially have to call the inevitable shove.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

I really like the river bet FWIW.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

he has AK

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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he has AK

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haha i thought you were supposed to be good..?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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he has AK

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haha i thought you were supposed to be good..?

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I don't doubt its part of his range I think sets are way more likely.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

how is AK possible given preflop?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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he has AK

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haha i thought you were supposed to be good..?

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his line only makes sense to me from a donk's perspective- hence, RIVER 2 PURRR AK ALL IN ill trap PF etc etc

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

jfish- what im saying is just we need to know more about opp to make any kind of analysis

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

jfish- i think u gotta check this river against a complete unknown or bet smaller- not being results oriented btw