100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

PF is obviously hilarious. The limp/re-raiser (MP2) was running ~33/22 over a couple orbits and seemed passive. The min-raiser (CO) was a nit who probably folded like QQ.

I really thought I'd get raised on the flop, so I bet a bit small to entice a raise. However, after donking into him twice, especially with the size of the turn bet, is it too scary to just open shove the river? If so, how much should I bet here? He's passive, but I have no idea if he would raise a $40 bet with AA; I am pretty sure, though, that he can't fold a big pair here.

UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players

SB: $17.50
Hero (BB): $112.30
UTG: $62.10
UTG+1: $138.95
UTG+2: $98.00
MP1: $115.65
MP2: $108.70
MP3: $104.00
CO: $96.90
BTN: $140.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 Players)
4 folds, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.00, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $5.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $3.00

Flop: ($12.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, MP2 calls $7.00

Turn: ($26.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22.50</font>, MP2 calls $22.50

River: ($71.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
HERO (Villain has ~$75 left)

EDIT: I'm posting these because I think I try to play for stacks too much. Is a shove overkill here?

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet?

If he has a set, he is probably calling a bet no matter what. If he missed one of his draws, he isn't going to call anything - your only hope in this case would be to have him bluff a draw on the river. If he has an overpair and will call a $40 bet, I'm pretty sure shoving is more EV.

I think I would just push here.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he is going to call a $40 bet with AA, why wouldn't he call a $70 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he can fold aces, I'm just not sure if he's raising with them if I bet $40 (some passive donks will just shove over any bet with AA on this board).

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

push

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How Much Do I Bet?

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All of it.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

His read of you and/or your table image would help here. I think you're forgoing value if you open-shove -- that can't have the highest expectation.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Are you sure it doesn't maximize EV? Hero's read on villain is heavily implying that villain can't fold an overpair.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

You should be betting more on the flop.

I think a river shove will get called.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
His read of you and/or your table image would help here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Third (?) orbit, so I doubt he had any reads other than that I wasn't a maniac.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

no, shove it

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

If he has an overpair here and you've failed to get stacks, this is a big mistake.

I probably push, but there is some non zero chance that an overpair folds to it.

I don't understand why you look for him to check/raise you on the flop when you say he is passive. Surely, either a check/raise, or a full sized donk aimed at getting stacks in with 3 streets of standard size betting are better?

I do make these non standard plays myself too sometimes, but wonder whether they really do me any favours.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

bet more on flop. which means bigger turn, which makes river shove easier.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Yeah, the flop bet was what hurt the rest of the hand. Anyway, I shoved, and he thought about it awhile before folding. I felt like I probably should have just bet around $50, but almost everyone seems to agree with the shove, so I guess it's not bad.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?


I would bet like $40 on the river.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Shoving here is fine. As stated he's probably going to call with overpairs, guaranteed to call with sets, and isn't calling anything with whiffed draws. May as well go for the gold.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, if I had a busted draw on this river, I'd just c/f about 95% of the time. If I did bluff, it would probably be about $40, but I just don't see any value in bluffing a passive limp/re-raiser on a ten high board.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

As much as I really think it's a mistake to play this hand OOP to a raise (blah blah reads, blah blah), I would check and stick in a raise on the flop, then lead the turn.

Let him stick in 5 and raise to 15 or so? Tah puts $40 in the pot on the turn and lets you lead for $30. The last $50 slides in on the river.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As much as I really think it's a mistake to play this hand OOP to a raise

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It was $1 more in a raised pot with a nit. I love this hand against the min-raiser. When the guy limp/re-raises and the nit folds, I'm getting better than 4-to-1 on a call, so it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
His read of you and/or your table image would help here. I think you're forgoing value if you open-shove -- that can't have the highest expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?

[/ QUOTE ]
I like where this is going...

[ QUOTE ]
How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?
I would bet like $40 on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
...but I like this the best. Valuetown will earn you more than Stacktown (which happens to be a suburb of Foldtown)

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

You're getting about 3-1 right?

In any case, I've never been a big proponent of calling because the pot odds are good with a hand like that. It's not a pot odds sort of hand. Much of the money you are going to make with a hand like that is going to have to be done via theft, which is a lot harder to do oop.

I will give you that the limp/re-raiser gave you a great price to flop a monster in terms of stack sizes. You were calling $3 to make $100+. When someone telegraphs a big pair like that there is a lot more room to play the hand. So, in retrospect, I don't entirely hate playing the hand given the action. I would pass if it had been raised and called prior to your action. I am a position nit, though. I don't play very many hands out of position. I really don't like playing the low suited connectors out of position.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

get it in there!!!!

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

pooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting about 3-1 right?

In any case, I've never been a big proponent of calling because the pot odds are good with a hand like that. It's not a pot odds sort of hand. Much of the money you are going to make with a hand like that is going to have to be done via theft, which is a lot harder to do oop.

I will give you that the limp/re-raiser gave you a great price to flop a monster in terms of stack sizes. You were calling $3 to make $100+. When someone telegraphs a big pair like that there is a lot more room to play the hand. So, in retrospect, I don't entirely hate playing the hand given the action. I would pass if it had been raised and called prior to your action. I am a position nit, though. I don't play very many hands out of position. I really don't like playing the low suited connectors out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, 3-to-1, not 4-to-1. Oops.

Anyway, draws are pretty easy to play against passive players, IMO. My hand is also completely disguised, and when I hit this type of flop, he's never getting away from a big pair. It's not a hand I would normally play OOP (or IP, for that matter), but I can't find a single spot PF where I should fold 64s.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
but I can't find a single spot PF where I should fold 64s.

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...except against a short stack.