3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $582.75
BB: $200.00
UTG: $768.65
UTG+1: $1,384.90
MP1: $498.20
MP2: $745.05
CO: $606.00
BTN: $564.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $18.00</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $15.00, BB folds

Flop: ($42) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $35.00</font>, CO calls $35.00

Turn: ($112) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $92.00</font>, CO calls $92.00

River: ($296) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)


From previous sessions I have stats on this guy as 12/5 over 400 hands. I have no notes on him nor do I remember him at all. Hard to know what he knows about my play, but it's unlikely that he has any reason to believe that I'd be getting way out of line here.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

i'm just a lowly NL 50 player but looking at this hand I still believe that you are ahead. my first thought was that on flop he had a draw, possibly QTs with lots of outs. had he flopped a set on the flop would villain not raise here in case he thought you had a big draw? the turn cold call is weaker IMO, as again if he had a set or a hand bigger than yours wouldn't a raise be in order?

if he did flop a set, or river a flush or straight I think you have to value bet here because villain would have played it horribly.

just my thoughts for what it is worth.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

"if he did flop a set, or river a flush or straight I think you have to value bet here because villain would have played it horribly."

What? You mean bring yourself to valuetown?

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

I too am a lowly NL50, but I'll never get any wiser unless I practice.

12/5 in the CO, he is still mostly with the premiums, so big aces are like half of his range here. Given that, and the board, a flush seems unlikely and there is only AT or TT for the str8.

Actually we look much more likely for the flush or straight, I think I betfold here for around half the pot, can't see him raising with anything but the best and I'd be too worried about losing value to check call, plenty of 2 pair hands he can have that would just check behind otherwise.

Edit: pokerstoving him with a 10% PFR range (to allow for he is in the cutoff) your villain is a 3/2 dog. So, you can put him on an even wider range and still be fairly happy getting your money in.

Also, if you give villain any credit at all, maybe 1/2 pot bet will look too much like "aha, he is bet fold", so maybe a little more, say 180.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

You want to valuebet here against a higher set or straight? Intriguing.

Check this river, and dependent on bet size, call. You could actually fold here to any reasonable sized bet. Higher sets abound and diamond draws that include a T are easily possible.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Call me old fashioned, but it's traditional for higher sets to raise at some point, partic. on a drawy board. It's not a straight very often at all imo.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Check the river.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

im voting to check river and call a decent size bet. I dont see any value in trying to block the river.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

I think you have about 52% Equity in a 50bb pot. So what's your move? He probably doesn't have QTs or QTo in this situation, as 12/5 is a little tight to be playing that from the cut off. I also think TT folds the flop or the turn.

Board: 5h Jd Kd Qh Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.923% 51.92% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 48.077% 48.08% 00.00% 25 0.00 { JJ+, AKs, AdQd, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

meh spot

I cant see a 12/5 having Tx and you would think hed raise a set on the flop or at least the turn. The hand Id be worried about the most is a scared AA but I think the he shows up with some broadway 2 pair combo more often to make a value bet profitable. I doubt he value bets worse here so c/c seems meh. I vote b/f for 165.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

his line reeks of ak, im not worried about aa if hes a good player he likely raises in this spot on the flop considereing that so many turn cards will put him in a tuff spot. i probably bet 165 as well for value and probably fold to a raise.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Results?

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

b/f &gt; c/c

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

[ QUOTE ]
b/f &gt; c/c

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I felt like b/f was the correct move. Why $165 though? Why not $155?

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

check/calling seems absolutely brutal

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

[ QUOTE ]
check/calling seems absolutely brutal

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can all agree on that. So what happened?

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
b/f &gt; c/c

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I felt like b/f was the correct move. Why $165 though? Why not $155?

[/ QUOTE ]

$169.69 is clearly the best amount to bet.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

[ QUOTE ]
check/calling seems absolutely brutal

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I doubt he value bets worse plus he checks behind here a lot when hed call a bet.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Bet 150-200 depending on how you size your river bet usually. Fold to a raise.
I think 2 pairs makes a lot of villain's range, AK and KQ being the most likely holdings.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

I figured his most likely holding at this point was two pair of some sort and my hand range at this point includes hands with no showdown value (flush draws), so a river bet here could definitely be seen as a three barrel bluff on a very scary board. By contrast, his hand almost certainly has showdown value so his range of betting when checked to should only be very strong hands. It seemed unlikely that he has a better hand. I bet $175 since it's big enough to look like a bluff but it's an amount that I think has some chance of getting called. He pushed pretty quickly so I bitched at him in chat and folded. He says he had AdTd.

Re: 3/6 bottom set oop, garbage board
 

Sounds like he was telling the truth, though that hardly matters. NH sir.