AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Ok, this is a hand that friend of mine played, and my cousin and I have been arguing as to what the best way to play it would be. Please ignore any decisions that were made during the hand, and give input only on the turn play.

$2/5 NL game. Villain is unknown with a 1k stack, Hero has him covered. Hero has AcAs UTG, raises to $25, five callers to flop. Flop is:

2h 2d 4c [pot is $127]

Hero bets out $100, gets folded around to Villain on the button who smooth calls. Turn is the 4d. What is the correct play to make on the turn?

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

villian is more likily to have a hand like 66 than a 4 or a 2. However, a bet may chase him off.

if you check he may bet, but probably only on the turn. this is a raised pot so either he has 3 pair or quads :P.

the best bet is toi probably c/r because you have the best hand, but i get too weak in spots like this, but i doubt i'd fold unless villian proves to me he has quads.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

300 in the pot, a little under 900 left in the stack, and its a live game... I don't think I have a problem throwing mad chips in with aces on a 2244 board here. Checkraise doesnt work unless he bets the turn, I'm more inclined to keep firing value bets (and call raises, unless he has a good read otherwise). Make it $225 or $250 on the turn.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Any reads? Reads would be good.

Bet $250 and call a raise v. unknown.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is a raised pot so either he has 3 pair or quads :P

[/ QUOTE ] Hero makes it 5bb utg and gets 5 callers. They don't all have pocket pairs or AK.

The turn play depends on who the villain is. Against unknown, I agree with BigJim.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

No reads on this particular villain. A general note about the competition in this game, though: most of the players will get crazy when they have small stacks, but not with 1k+ chips. When they accumulate that many chips, they are usually very uncomfortable risking their stack.

I'm confused as to why you'd call a raise after a $250 bet on the turn; what could villain have that hero beats? Is he getting crazy with 66, or just bluffing? KK or other premium pairs would reraise PF with 4 people already in, no?

Also, assuming villain min-raises the 250 bet to 500 and hero calls, what's the plan for the river? Check-call?

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

AA is the nuts, live.

People make crazy plays all the time, and will treat an overpair like the nuts, as well.

Obv, I am basing this off of my experience with other live games, and not this one.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Its a clear value bet on the turn. His most likely holding is an overpair. If you check, he will likely bet small or check and thus you dont get value from your aces. He is likely to fold to a check raise too. Price him in all the way. So bet according to his stack size. If he had a 1k stack, a bet of 250 is tempting enough. He'll then be priced in for a river call. With very deep stacks, the decision is tricky and player dependent

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm confused as to why you'd call a raise after a $250 bet on the turn; what could villain have that hero beats? Is he getting crazy with 66, or just bluffing? KK or other premium pairs would reraise PF with 4 people already in, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

He got position so why would he raise turn with A2, A4, 44 or 22?

If we had a read on him as aggressive, isnt checkcalling turn and betting river a good move?

Against unknown, isnt betting almost pot on turn a bit to big if he got a medium pocketpair, which he often will have since KK and QQ often will rereaise preflop? Wouldnt something like $150 be a harder fold for TT?

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Keep betting.

People think overpairs are the nuts, make him lose money with his 77.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Ok, the consensus seems to be to make a healthy bet on the turn with the intention of betting the river if called, or reraising all in if he comes over the top.

In the actual hand, my friend bet $100 into about a $300 pot, and the villain min-raised. Does this change hero's plan?

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

Just keep betting and call any raises... You can't ever give anyone credit for quads because its just so rare. I played a similar hand a few weeks ago at 5/10... where my 3/4 pot bet on flop was min-raised... in response to which I pushed for 1K and got a call from JJ. You're likely up against something similar.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

i say bet $250.

most players will assume their overpair, whether it be 99-KK would be good here, unless its a skilled opponent and you never really provided any information so we dont know if hes a total donk or a good player.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

not sure why people are discounting A4, A2, 54s when villian is on the button, and with 5 callers, he had several callers in front of him.

that said, i agree with people who said to continue betting for value.

Re: AA Turn Decision vs. Morongo Unknown
 

I was wondering this myself. Everyone says not to worry about quads, but villain doesn't NEED quads to be way ahead. Also, I don't see why a suited A4, A2, or 45 is out of the question.

About the lack of reads, I didn't see this hand. My friend told me about it, and he said he didn't know anything about the villain. Still, players in this game have been known to call raises with all kinds of crap, especially when they see a big pot forming. While perhaps an over pair to the board is villain's likely hand, it isn't out of the question for him to have some random hand that happens to have a 4 or a deuce in it.