300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Villain is 49/10/2, 33% wtsd and fwiw river af 17. I lost the previous pot so I only have 86bb.


Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $3.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($316.23)
CO ($258.53)
Button ($300.00)
SB ($291.69)
Hero ($258.15)
UTG ($447.74)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $3, Button calls $3, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($10.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, CO calls $9, Button calls $9.

Turn: ($37.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, CO folds, Button calls $30.

River: ($97.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $258 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $219.15 (All-In).

Final Pot: $574.65

Standard?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Looks like you got what you wanted.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Yeah, fine. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

ive seen a fair few donks overbet-shove missed draws

nh

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Looks like you got what you wanted.

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Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Looks like you got what you wanted.

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I'm snapcalling up to a psb. Question is whether or not a 2xpot bluff is common enough to call this bet.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Then why not bet ~70 on the river and fold to a raise?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I def agree man they missed the point of the thread. TBH I don't think its a great spot to induce a bluff although I'm guilty of this mistake alot as well. I think you know the answer to this, next time make sure you got top 2 before checking to induce when villains got that large of a stack. Otherwise just keep this play for when villain has about one psb left.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Then why not bet ~70 on the river and fold to a raise?

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Imo a huge part of his range is fd/5x. He'll have a hard time calling with a flopped pair so his calling range is probably 2-pair+, Qxcc and maybe Txcc. He also seems pretty aggressive, so I think checking the river is better than betting.

Edit: I didn't ever expect a shove...

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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I def agree man they missed the point of the thread. TBH I don't think its a great spot to induce a bluff although I'm guilty of this mistake alot as well. I think you know the answer to this, next time make sure you got top 2 before checking to induce when villains got that large of a stack. Otherwise just keep this play for when villain has about one psb left.

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I think this is a perfect spot to induce a bluff for a few reasons:
1. Villain seems to be aggressive on the river.
2. There's tons of busted draws he can have.
3. Very few made hands can call a river bet, since any flopped paired need to be worried about the overcards that came on the turn and river.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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I def agree man they missed the point of the thread. TBH I don't think its a great spot to induce a bluff although I'm guilty of this mistake alot as well. I think you know the answer to this, next time make sure you got top 2 before checking to induce when villains got that large of a stack. Otherwise just keep this play for when villain has about one psb left.

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I think this is a perfect spot to induce a bluff for a few reasons:
1. Villain seems to be aggressive on the river.
2. There's tons of busted draws he can have.
3. Very few made hands can call a river bet, since any flopped paired need to be worried about the overcards that came on the turn and river.

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agree w/ all this
but personally i'm always paranoid of oesds, esp. on boards where oesfds are possible
since it just hit on the river i'd be more inclined to bet fold

also villain could have a Q he can call w/ if he has club Queens

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

since he's more on the aggro side I'd say that he's more likely to play a very big draw like 89cc fast so I say call cuz i think his range is something like 89o, 89s not cc, and busted flushes/busted 5x.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I really feel anyone saying to bet/fold the river here is being kind of results oriented. A million draws missed, and if he was just *flat calling* that drawy flop with a made hand, it's very likely his made hand is weak and can't call 3 streets. Also, with those stats, this guy seems quite likely to bluff.

It's a clear check/call IMO, it's just the last thing we expected here was an overbet shove. He bets 75 on the end, or even pots it for 95, I snapcall and feel good about how the money went in. The overbet obviously changes the situation, since it's a pretty rare situation.

River overbets are generally a nuts/air situation. I mean, no one is really going to be overbet shoving the river with a lone pair of queens they picked up trying to make it look like a bluff and induce a hero call. In general, he's either got something huge, or he's got nothing.

There's tons of nothing we beat - any busted flush or straight draw being the vast majority of it.

Better two pair: Unlikely, maybe QcTc
Sets: You'd think he'd raise the flop in position multiway with this sketchy board. Still possible tho. This guy might not 3bet TT preflop with those stats, and could easily get to the river this way with TT and then pull this. Probably the main hand I'm worried about if I'm beat.

Straights: Again I'd think he'd have raised somewhere, but it's not impossible.

So, yah - there's some flukey stuff out there that you lose to for sure, but this guy very loose and is super aggro on the river and the tons of different ways he could have air seem more likely than the ways he beats you here. Think you gotta make the call.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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It's a clear check/call IMO, it's just the last thing we expected here was an overbet shove. He bets 75 on the end, or even pots it for 95, I snapcall and feel good about how the money went in.

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I probably call here because villian is 50/10.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

YOU HAVE SOME BALLS SIR, HOPE THAT WORKED OUT FOR YOU, PRETTY READ-DEPENDENT PLAY SO I DUNNO HOW MUCH ADVICE WE CAN REALLY GIVE; LOOKS LIKE YOUR GUT THOUGHT HE WAS FOS SO SOUNDS GOOD THEN

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I agree that with the board playing out the way it did and the range you can put your opponent on that this is a great spot to induce a bluff. I just don't think the stack sizes make for a great spot. I dont know i just see alot of posts on here about someone trying to induce a bluff from villain then he overshoves the pot massively. The fact that this is a nuts or air situation makes me rethink checking the river this deep compared to the pot. Maybe Im being a pussy and need to check call overshoves more often. I just dont get why everyone checks to induce a bluff when their opponent has alot left then asks if this is standard. Perhaps this is something i need to add to my game, but doesnt this make slowplaying the nuts on a drawy board very profitable for your opponent? Do you always call large overbets here or do you sometimes fold?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

there is tons that we beat but how much of those busted draws comprise his range for overbet shoving this much? At this point i play it the same way alot and end up calling, just havent been happy with what ive seen in similar situations with overbet shoving on this type of board. I call overbet shoves in spots where the board isnt this drawy, but the betting pattern is kinda funky. I have just found in my experience that an overbet this large to a check on the end on this board is usually nuts more than air. I dont think you can say well it either nuts or air, so its 50 50 and just call it down all the time. I find that its more nuts than air here. DO you ever check to induce here then fold if he bets this big? is that the best play then, to check call any reasonable bet and fold to something this big or you call them all?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Well if that is a river bluff nice call. I don't see what you can beat here, besides a bluff. I don't think he would have pushed with air. You have to really think about would he just push with air instead of betting a large amount?


When you look at the river bet, do you think you can beat a non-bluff? I think I would have bet the river, and if he pushed obv. your beat and you have some sort of read. But when a player just pushes, you have no read. I think you could have bet a small amount, and called a raise. But I really dislike a call on that river.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I really like how you played it.
Results ?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I love the way you played this and I'm sure you had every intention of calling up to a PSB. But wow, that's pretty sick.

I think this is one of three hands: 89, TT, or air. And you'd think he'd open for a raise w/ TT. So it's either 89 or air. I think I call this river in the heat of the moment, but I really don't like it and I expect to lose way too often for this to be profitable. Should we call here? I don't think so.

It's a limped pot and we only have invested 1/6th of our stack. Again, it's a sick overbet and I like that you induced the bet on the end, but not for that much. In the end I think this is a fold, but I might be compelled to call it in the heat of battle....

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Fishsticks,
I pretty much agree with everything you're saying, very good post.


kei,
I don't really see why one of the oesd hitting should make me more inclined to b/f the river. In general b/f will lose about the same vs the straight, I think what's more important is how the different lines does vs the rest of his range (busted draws and very weak made hands).


jc,
I don't think the stacksizes should be a concern, we're so rarely facing a push on the river and I'm happy to call a psb. I think calling overbet shoves on the river is good (less bad) if the board drawy and lots of draws have missed, calling on less drawy boards is probably worse.

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I have just found in my experience that an overbet this large to a check on the end on this board is usually nuts more than air.

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This is my experience too, but I have a very limited experience of overbet shoves on the river so I wanted some input. This hand seems like an almost ideal situation to call an overbet push though (except 98 hit on the river).

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DO you ever check to induce here then fold if he bets this big? is that the best play then, to check call any reasonable bet and fold to something this big or you call them all?

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I think that the overbet changes the situation a lot, so yeah I think you should be capable of folding in a spot like this even though your intention was to induce a bluff. Not saying this exact spot is a fold, but it might be.


Tony,
I'm definately not expecting to beat any of his v-betting hands here.



I think checking the river to induce a bluff is clearly better than bet/folding for reasons I've already stated. And as said before I'm snapping a bet up to, well maybe $120. And I think his riverbet with be within this range 99% of the time.

When villain pushes the river it changes the situation a lot. In my limited experience this is a monster more often than air, but with this board and vs this villain I think calling is close.


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Results ?


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<font color="white"> I called, villain showed Tc6c and mhing. Not the hand I'd expect when behind and probably a pretty retarded push by him (or really brilliant if he had great read). </font>

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I still think this is a fold, but wtf kinda hand is that to be pushing the river?!?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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It's a limped pot and we only have invested 1/6th of our stack. Again, it's a sick overbet and I like that you induced the bet on the end, but not for that much. In the end I think this is a fold, but I might be compelled to call it in the heat of battle....


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This decision pretty much boils down what frequency he overpushes air/monsters. My experience is that overpushing air is unusual at ssnl, if that's what the rest of ssnl thinks too I'm going to agree this is a fold. My limited experience of overpushes made me want to get some input about this frequency, even though I agree this is a very read dependant spot.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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It's a limped pot and we only have invested 1/6th of our stack. Again, it's a sick overbet and I like that you induced the bet on the end, but not for that much. In the end I think this is a fold, but I might be compelled to call it in the heat of battle....


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This decision pretty much boils down what frequency he overpushes air/monsters. My experience is that overpushing air is unusual at ssnl, if that's what the rest of ssnl thinks too I'm going to agree this is a fold. My limited experience of overpushes made me want to get some input about this frequency, even though I agree this is a very read dependant spot.

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Oh I agree completely. That said, I think the VAST majority of overbet/pushes in these type spots are for value, not bluffs. If it were a bluff, you would think he would bet less, trying to make it look less suspicious.

Then again, maybe I'm weak tight as I'm looking for a reason to fold here as opposed to a reason to call, given the ratio of money invested:size of overbet. That said, I usually muck and think if I got bluffed, so be it, I'll get it back w/ interest in due time if he's doing this with air [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Surely his overbet REALLY REALLY looks like a missed draw?

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Not the hand I'd expect when behind and probably a pretty retarded push by him (or really brilliant if he had great read).

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Wait, what? That's the perfect move. If ahead, he has a funky two pair or 89cc.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

Sample size would be nice to know. River AF 17 is really worthless information if it isn't over like 500-1000 hands which I doubt.

What makes this call harder is that he isn't betting a scare card. It actually doesn't look too much like a bluff. I would have probably closed my eyes and called it anyway.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Sample size would be nice to know. River AF 17 is really worthless information if it isn't over like 500-1000 hands which I doubt.


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Sample size is 330 hands, and yes I agree 17 probably isn't even close to his "real" river af. But over 300 hands it is at least likely he's active and is far from worthless.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Not the hand I'd expect when behind and probably a pretty retarded push by him (or really brilliant if he had great read).

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Wait, what? That's the perfect move. If ahead, he has a funky two pair or 89cc.

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Or 98o. This is a bluff vs most players at this limit though. The majority will bet my hand at the river, and most of the players checking will not call a 2xpot bet with a crappy 2-pair like I did. So making an ordinary vb on the river is much better for him imo, unless he knows me well.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

i play the same.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I don't know why no one has suggested betting 1/3 of the pot and calling a shove. It looks more like a blocking bet that is intending to fold to a shove (that got scared on the river when the straight draw came in). Thinking Villain's will be more willing to bluff the blocking bet.

It also might get a call out of a hand like 65,54,75,78,68 which are all possible hands from Villain which will be willing to call a small bet on the river but not a big one.

As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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I don't know why no one has suggested betting 1/3 of the pot and calling a shove. It looks more like a blocking bet that is intending to fold to a shove (that got scared on the river when the straight draw came in). Thinking Villain's will be more willing to bluff the blocking bet.

It also might get a call out of a hand like 65,54,75,78,68 which are all possible hands from Villain which will be willing to call a small bet on the river but not a big one.

As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.

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Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.


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I think many doesn't weight in how much the size of the riverbet effects his range. I'm expect him to use the pot- or 1/2-pot button if he bluffs 99%.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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As for the range of the Villain. Meh. His bet size sure looks like straight or air, so our hand strength is more or less meaningless, since we might as well have a small pair in this situation. From Villain's stats I don't think he's smart enough to be betting a Q like this, trying to induce a strange calling range from the Hero. Or to be turning a hand like, 56 into a bluff. I'd take villain's action to look like what it is...air or straight. There are alot more ways to make missed flush draws then there are to make made straights. The only question becomes would he play combo draws like AcXc or KcQc or Tc9c so passively? Nonetheless, it's hard not to imagine a range of hands where we're not good here 50% of the time.


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I think many doesn't weight in how much the size of the riverbet effects his range. I'm expect him to use the pot- or 1/2-pot button if he bluffs 99%.

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling? And if that's the case, then his bet sizing is obviously exploitable. So the question becomes irrelevant because he only over bets the river with a single type of hand.

However, if you assume that he overbets shoves with both his bluffs and the nuts (which he obviously should to balance his plays), then you should begin to determine the possible range of his hands.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

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Donks often use these, but my point was that I think his bluff will be in the 1/2-pot to potsize range 99%.


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So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling?

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Ok, so I'm saying this again. I have a very limited experience when it comes to overbet-pushes, that's why I posted this. Ime an overbet-push is nuts or close to it more often than air, but this seems like a decent place to call because there's so many busted draws possible.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I find overbet shoves like this to rarely be bluffs. I really feel 89, TT, or a tricky QQ or other set is showing up. He's 50/10, so he probably doesn't care about slowplaying on a vulnerable board.
For those that suggested betting 1/3 pot and calling shove, this is horrible imo. 50/10's aren't bluffraising blocking bets imo.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

i snap call and feel good about it. the only hand i think villain may play like this is 58clubs,89 maybe 58o, and then a load of busted draws any other made hand like higher two pair / set would have surely raised the flop/turn with such a wet board.

note: i have 27% wtsd and 50.5% won$@sd...so im obv a bit of a station

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

J fish posted a hand yesterday in mid stakes where villain overbet shoved for 3x pot on a less drawy board but i would be more inclined to call his hand with top pair, than your hand. More often than not you should be calling overbets on drawy boards, but sometimes other things like a funky betting pattern have more weight on my decision than board texture. You are right about stack sizes I guess it really shouldnt matter when trying to induce. I def am losing value on my hands against this type of opponent when blocking the river this deep. I guess the best play is to induce and fold to a bet of this size, just hope I can do that. Thanks nick good thread, i actually started blocking rivers this deep to avoid these situations, prob should change that and be disciplined enuf to lay it down when this happens.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

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Why do you think he uses the pot button for bluffs and shoves with the nuts?

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Donks often use these, but my point was that I think his bluff will be in the 1/2-pot to potsize range 99%.


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So are you suggesting that he only overbet shoves with the nuts? If so, then why are you calling?

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Ok, so I'm saying this again. I have a very limited experience when it comes to overbet-pushes, that's why I posted this. Ime an overbet-push is nuts or close to it more often than air, but this seems like a decent place to call because there's so many busted draws possible.

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To be honest, since 89o is in his preflop range. This looks to be a fold given that there are nearly as many made hands at flush draws and he probably plays his combo draws more aggressively some % of the time.

Nonetheless, I think the way you have to look at it is considering frequency in terms of ranges which you seem to be doing.

Re: 300nl - Trying to induce a river bluff...
 

I vomit profusely and then call river.