Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Not sure if this is in the right forum.

Very few people have the money to just put in 10K to play this tourney because the field is really good. But say someone an average player who plays low stakes say 100NL and below but got staked by someone to play in this tournament. Let's just say the backer was rich and told this player to play. He has lot of money to blow lets just say he was a billionaire. If this average player plays this touranment say 26 times which is every sunday for half a year, can he win this tournament 1 time assuming the field is 8 everytime and maybe sometimes 16 but more times 8?

Is there a chance he won't even win 1 match because the field is just too good? I mean there is going to be luck involved and bad beats which can help the worser player but do you guys think a guy like this has a shot to at least just get passed the first round if he plays this tourney for 26 straight weeks? I know that if these heads up matches are liek the sit and go ones that stevebets plays for 5K, then I think the answer would be a clear yes. Does anyone disagree here? But if it was the 30 minute level and 10K in chips, I still think this player can win once right?

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

to say that he would never get past the first round is absurd. you could literally push every single hand and probably win 20% of the time, even if the other guy knew you were pushing every hand.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Well i am specifically talking about if they were playing the high stakes structure they currently have. Even if that was the case, is it almost certain that the average player will win once then? I know it would be absurd if it was those heads up sit and goes on pokerstars with 1500 chips and 10/20 blinds.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

If your question is would an average player have a realistic shot at winning an 8 or 16 player tourney vs. great players over 20 or so plays, then obv that answer is yes. If the question is posed "is this +ev for the backer," then that is no. Next questions please.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
to say that he would never get past the first round is absurd. you could literally push every single hand and probably win 30-40% of the time, even if the other guy knew you were pushing every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
FYP

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

I don't think you understand what daryn is saying. He's saying that this fake person that knows very little about poker, if he were to play against a 'pro' in a heads up tournament with the 10k structure.
The donkey, by simply moving in every single hand would force the pro to wait till he could call profitably. The pro would like call with (99-AA + A10s-AKs + AJo-Ako) (my guess as to his range of hands) Even against these strong starting hand, the donkey would likely win 20% of the time (note: I did not actually run this through on PokerStove) so in an 8 man match you have to win 3 matchs, the donkey would average a win rake is 1 in 5 matches. So in conclusion

I suck at math and can't even do this simple equation. Whoever does it could you show the work, cause I need to brush up a bit.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

ya 20% just an absolute guess off the top of my head, of course it depends on the structure.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Okay, i thought that math was actually harder.

So for and 8 person headsup tournament you have to win 3 matches. If you win on match 1 in 5 times that means
5 x 5 x 5 = 125
So you will win 1 time in 125 or .008% of the time.
And for a 16 person
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625
So thats 1 time in 625 tries or .00016% of the time.

Now this numbers do seem a little to slim to me. Could someone explain why my very simple math is wrong, or prove why i am correct.
And could some pokerstove the handranges that i put in against and completely random hand. I'd like to see the exact odds of winning, by pushing ever hand, obviously this doesn't take into account the amount of chips won by the folding of the 'pro' player and how this may increase the odds slightly for the donk.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

how many BB deep are starting stacks?

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
how many BB deep are starting stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]200, with 30 minute blinds.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Assuming amateur moves in with any two cards and "pro" knows this, then..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.001% 79.70% 00.30% 50152262004 190206810.00 { TT+ }
Hand 1: 19.999% 19.70% 00.30% 12394496376 190206810.00 { random }

Yes, I know most likely the amateur will take some chips off the pro before he gets one of these 5 hands, still..

20% to win pushing ATC!

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

wow i'm awesome

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

This is solvable mathematically I think. The data is all on sharkscope HU leaderboards, just find a limit where there are a range of players with a skill difference at least as big as the skill difference between the 100NL player and the pros in the high stakes showdown. Then, check who has the biggest ROI at that level, and just assume that the pros have that edge versus the 100NL player. So, if the pro has a 16% edge over the 100NL guy (who will win 42% of his matches), odds of him winning 3 matches in a row are:

.42 X .42 X .42

or something like that basically. The fact that it is 200BBs deep means the pros will win more, but also we are taking the BEST roi from the leaderboard, maybe that evens it out a little. Maybe take a little edge away from the 100NL player to adjust for the structure I guess.

Anyway, my opinion without going and looking up these numbers is that assuming the 100NL player is competent and beats or breaks even at 100NL, out of 26 trials vs. 8 people, he'd probably win about 1.5 times on average, assuming he doesn't have huge HU leaks. 200 BBs is deeper than a normal match, but it's not like it's megadeepstacked enough to get away from coolers or even semi-coolers if the match is playing aggro enough.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Stevebets won, so I say yes.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a joke hu poker really is

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a true test of skill hu poker really is

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

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Stevebets won, so I say yes.

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awesome. although, i think he may have won more playing HU v. grimstarr

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also.. against warrantofice's pro calling hand range (99+, AJo+, ATs+

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.513% 69.83% 00.69% 128891634616 1265976546.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 29.487% 28.80% 00.69% 53162783492 1265976546.00 { random }

so ~30% of the time..

[/ QUOTE ]

you should probably be calling with a lot more than 99+, ATs+, AJo+, so it should be even more than 30%. basically this shows just what a joke hu poker really is

[/ QUOTE ]

actually..

with 200bb and 30 minute time levels, i really think you can wait around for TT+ and take the extra 10% equity.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

For the sake of the argument lets use my larger hand selection, I'm pretty sure for the first 2 or 3 tournaments the pro's will have a difficult time folding AKs or 99 towards a villian moving in every single hand, obv. after an extended trial they will realize that waiting for 10,10 will be more profitable, but if we can expect donk to be winning the first matches at approx. 30% of the time, or 1 in every 3.3 matches thats really changes the odds, that means the donk will win the an 8 person heads up match 1 in every 36 tries and a 16 person 1 in every 119 tries.
Therefore, i believe that it is safe to assume that a donk with an infinite backer, who loves to see show down races, would see his donkey horse win one, 8-person per year.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, i thought that math was actually harder.

So for and 8 person headsup tournament you have to win 3 matches. If you win on match 1 in 5 times that means
5 x 5 x 5 = 125
So you will win 1 time in 125 or .008% of the time.
And for a 16 person
5 x 5 x 5 x 5 = 625
So thats 1 time in 625 tries or .00016% of the time.

Now this numbers do seem a little to slim to me. Could someone explain why my very simple math is wrong, or prove why i am correct.
And could some pokerstove the handranges that i put in against and completely random hand. I'd like to see the exact odds of winning, by pushing ever hand, obviously this doesn't take into account the amount of chips won by the folding of the 'pro' player and how this may increase the odds slightly for the donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

1/125 != 0.008%.
1/125 = 0.008 = 0.8%

That said, the chances of winning a HU match by pushing AI PF every hand is actually much closer to 1/3. You can work out the rest.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Just to make this a little more crazy.

You get dealt AA-1010 approx. 1 in 45 times, so if you start off with 200bb than you would expect to loose 45bb on average before you can call an all-in. I'm am not nearly smart enough to figure out the donks chances of beating the pro after the all-in, assuming the pro wins and the donk has 45bb left, i think obv. the pro might open up his calling range again, which again would increase the donks chances of doubling up.
Another thing to consider would be, what if the poor player, were to nearly time out every time before he pushed all-in, with the occasional request time (i'm not sure of the request time procedure for Stars and how many times you can use it.) Would the donk be able to get to the next blind increase before the end of 45 hands? Then this would give the donkey and increased edge at the higher levels.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming amateur moves in with any two cards and "pro" knows this, then..

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.001% 79.70% 00.30% 50152262004 190206810.00 { TT+ }
Hand 1: 19.999% 19.70% 00.30% 12394496376 190206810.00 { random }

Yes, I know most likely the amateur will take some chips off the pro before he gets one of these 5 hands, still..

20% to win pushing ATC!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, just do the pokerstove calculation now on how to get dealt TT+ right away, and you have this solved.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

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wow i'm awesome

[/ QUOTE ]

I was impressed.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

lol, the average player is gonna try and play his best poker game, so wtf would he be pushing every hand?

He will deff cash in this a couple of times if he plays it 26 times and over this short sample could deff show some profit, but in the long run, he is obviously a loser in the game.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

If Lil Holdem plays it 26 times how bad are those [censored] arab crooks going to screw him?

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol, the average player is gonna try and play his best poker game, so wtf would he be pushing every hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

right, the point is EVEN IF YOU PUSH EVERY HAND you probably win one out of 3. so if an average player plays his regular game, he probably wins 40+% of the time easy.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

i get your point sorta, but i dont think it has much relevance.

And a 100 nl player just doesnt win the first round 40%+, if its a strong field it might actually be better pushing everyhand.

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

he definitely has a >50% chance of taking one down

Re: Pokerstars High Stakes Poker Heads Up Question
 

Not that they use the best of structures there...but didn't Shannon Elizabeth make it to the semi-finals of the Heads-Up Challenge on NBC? That kind of tells you something about heads-up play right there.

I thought Sklansky had some sort of write-up of the chances of a novice winning a heads-up match by just pushing every hand. Don't remember where I saw it though. It might have had to do with some sort of prop-bet or something.


In other news, I think some really bad players might actually have a BETTER chance by pushing every hand. Being too passive in heads-up is virtual suicide.