100NL: I Am So Confused
 

SB is a 12/4 set-mining reg (I think he plays full time). He's not aggro enough to be a great player, but he certainly knows what he's doing and is one of the better players at the level. We've played thousands of hands together...he tends to call me down a little light because I'm pretty aggro. He's check-raised me a couple times recently, but I never had a hand, so I never got to see his cards.

C-bet was supposed to be $9, but I don't think it really matters the way this hand played out. I just can't put him on a hand here. TT makes sense, but would he really overbet shove the turn since he knows I can fold an overpair? I'm just completely confused. Should I call or fold?

UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players

Hero ($113.30)
MP3 ($55.20)
CO ($106.50)
Button ($107.65)
SB ($22.60)
BB ($130.15)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($294.50)
MP1 ($99)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $21</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $13.

Turn: ($54.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $105.15 (All-In)</font>, HERO is confused

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

go the weak route and just fold.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

this doesn't seem that hard of a decision to make. u wrote u've played thousands of hands w/ this player so u should know him/her well by now. there is $159 in the pot ($12 preflop &amp; $42 on the flop plus the $105 all in on turn) and u need to call $105. u r gettin 1.5:1 on ur money which means u need to win the hand more than 1 out of every 2.5 times or over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. just pick a hand range for this person (since u r supposed to know him/her that well) and measure ur hand against his range.

if u don't know how to do this then u def have a lot to learn yet. u could start by reading an article phil galfond (omgclayaiken) wrote not so long ago for bluff mag about hand ranges and what he called "g-bucks". i believe it's the simplest way i've ever read that concept explained.
link to article

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

He views me as very TAGish; I'm running ~13.5/9 lately. I raise a lot (at least compared to most players at the level), I c-bet a lot, but I can fold a big hand, and he knows this. He's borderline nitty, but his game isn't just set-or-fold...he doesn't really have multiple speeds, but he isn't a total nitfish. What confuses me is that no hand fits his line. If he has...

QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

op did write the person knows he'll fold an overpair.

overall i'd say this is usually a fold. but knowin villain knows we'll fold an overpair here makes me wanna call more times than not b/c that will take away many hands that beat us from his range. it just doesn't make any sense to scare u away w/ such a strong hand like a full house.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
this doesn't seem that hard of a decision to make. u wrote u've played thousands of hands w/ this player so u should know him/her well by now. there is $159 in the pot ($12 preflop &amp; $42 on the flop plus the $105 all in on turn) and u need to call $105. u r gettin 1.5:1 on ur money which means u need to win the hand more than 1 out of every 2.5 times or over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. just pick a hand range for this person (since u r supposed to know him/her that well) and measure ur hand against his range.

if u don't know how to do this then u def have a lot to learn yet. u could start by reading an article phil galfond (omgclayaiken) wrote not so long ago for bluff mag about hand ranges and what he called "g-bucks". i believe it's the simplest way i've ever read that concept explained.
link to article

[/ QUOTE ]

El-oh-el at this whole post.

I'm going to completely ignore how much you ripped on me in this post and just ask you what YOU think his range is here. Just because I've played a lot of hands with him doesn't mean he's transparent...my God, if that were true, the pros would never play against each other since they'd always know what the other players had.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not against me. He's done it against bad players with "vulnerable" hands (made up example: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. a 30/7 on a J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] board). However, if we assume he can't have AA, a shove with QQ/KK is basically a bluff since he's never ahead when I call. At the same time, shoving with a set means he doesn't get any value. So...I'm lost.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I would fold. Mainly because I highly doubt this guy would risk ALL of his chips without having a good hand. You said yourself..

[ QUOTE ]
he certainly knows what he's doing

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that all-in in that situation is a good idea but knowing that he's pretty good (from what you say) I highly doubt he would risk all of his chips in that situation without having a solid hand.

If he has TT, his thought process could be (given the fact you guys have played a lot of hands together) that he knows you're pretty aggro and this could be a chance for you to hang yourself. From his point of view...

You raised preflop (not sure on your stats but for argument sake we'll say he thinks you're TAG) putting you on two high cards and JJ+ (assuming he has TT, he wont put you on TT+). The flop was amazing for him so he checks raises because he knows you're gonna c-bet a) because he knows you to be aggro and b) because a c-bet makes sense here. Once you make the call he can assume you have a high pair, JJ+. Because you called the flop he could think that you're going to commit yourself to the hand and he thinks that you're going to pay him off here.

Thats the only logical thought process I can think of if he has the hand, I'm not saying what he did was right but for a person who might "know what he's doing" this thought process makes some sense...I think...or I could be giving him way more credit than he deserves ...

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

[/ QUOTE ]

AA: he would have to have the only other two aces left. plus he didn't reraise preflop?

KK or QQ: he didn't reraise preflop? (that argues in favor of him/her not havin them)... i think s/he doesn't put u on AA or KK b/c u prolly would've reraised his/er reraise on the flop w/ those 2 hands. u said urself it's hard to put him/er on 8x so why not reraise him back on the flop before that hand gets nastier like it did on the turn. (this, on the other hand makes it very possible for him to have them)

JJ or TT: i think u r about right on what u wrote except that it is very possible for villain to reraise here w/ JJ to find out where s/he's at. one can lose a lot of money unnecessarily against an overpair on the next street if it's a blank. if villain is a solid player a reraise here w/ JJ is not out of line.

8x: u should also throw in 87 suited if u r sayin 98 suited is possible. also, for ur hand range calculations u should throw in 88 (altho highly unlikely b/c of the odds of floppin quads and b/c it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to play that strongly knowin u'll fold overpairs and that if u have a full house s/he's gettin ur money on the river anyways).

anyways... u have a complete range of hands for villain. do the math and see if the 1.5:1 u r gettin on ur money is good enough for a call.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I'll admit to being equally confused given the description.

Admittedly, I love to CR this type of paired flop against a TAG PFR who is on the agressive side. However, if I had an trips or better here I can't see why on earth I'd move AI like that--the only time I'd do it would be on a bluff and the only two bluffing hands I'd likely have that I really would want to move you off, but don't totally mind a call are 99 or 77 (less likely).

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to completely ignore how much you ripped on me in this post and just ask you what YOU think his range is here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i apologize if i came on answerin in a condescendin way. didn't mean to and now that i reread it i kinda did. so, i'm sorry about that. as for the range i've already added a couple of hands to ur own range on my previous reply.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I completely understand your problem and I have to admit this hand really looks kind of sick to me, too. From the way it was played I would say something like 89 or 87 being kind of afraid of the draws on the turn, but the question is: with 12/4 would he call a raise with this hand in the BB? Same goes for some weird straight like 97 or Q9, can't see him playing those PF. JT would be very strange, too, if he puts you on an overpair, he knows that you're ahead with a better two pair.
KQ of diamonds is also possible and playing a big draw that aggressive wouldn't be completely out of line, but why should he be raising (or even calling) your flop bet with this holding?
To sum this up, I guess the only holding that makes any kind of sense with his line here is a SC with an 8 and I think this is a horrible spot for you to be in.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Just fold. This looks like hes trying to goad you into a call. He knows you will fold AA-QQ to a normal bet here so he pushes and makes it look fishy to confuse you and hopefully get you to call.

I really dont think its a bluff unless villain is thinking on the fourth (?) level.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

crunny, i'm in love w/ ur avatar.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

[ QUOTE ]
crunny, i'm in love w/ ur avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thx. She's expensive though.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I'd call this nearly always.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Bump...anyone else?

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

From my limited knowledge, I see it as three main options:

A) You've said he's done this before with vulnerable overpairs. Perhaps he just made this move on you with KK/QQ and wasn't necessarily paying attention to who he was up against.

B) As you said, he knows you can fold an overpair. He's check-raised you in the past and you've folded each time. He can put you on exactly an overpair here with you calling his flop raise. He figures you can't call this with an overpair and over bets the pot.

C) He's a lot better than you give him credit for. He knows that you know that he knows you can fold an overpair. He has a set and by making such an awkward and confusing push on the turn he figures you'll feel your being pushed off the better hand and make the call.

I'd lean towards making the call, if he shows a set I'd be a lot more cautious in future hands.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Does she have a sister, crunny? Maybe I should spend my next holidays in Australia and not in LV... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]