Week 2 NCAA thread
 

The old thread was for predicting the open and getting too long and unwieldy [which would get worse]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Temple -2.5 1.1u to win 1 unit.
BG +17, 1u
Okla -10,
OregSt -3, LOSS
PSU -14, 1u
Oregon +7, 1u, another unit at 8.5
Rutgers -13, 1u.
BYU +7.5, 1u.
Miami u43.5, 1 unit. I hope this goes up so I can load up on it. Only fear is Freeman is so bad even a top 10 Miami D can't keep it close.

8-3 ytd, +4.85u.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

TCU +10, 3u
Alabama -3, 1u
LSU -12 1/2, 1u

YTD: 5-1-0, +8.90u
CFB: 4-1-0, +4.90u
NFL: 1-0-0, +4.00u

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Good call on new thread. Here is complete list of my plays below. Alot of same as most people here.

Oregonst -3 2.2units Loss
Cinci 2H +3 1unit Win
Louisville -41 1unit Loss
Georgia -5 1unit
Missouri -6 1unit
Bama -3 1unit
BoiseSt -2.5 1unit
TCU +9.5 1.05units
Rutgers -17 1unit
East Carolina -5 1unit
Miami/OK U43.5 1unit
Oregon +7 1unit

Couple games I am leaning towards and would appreciate any good discussion them you all may have.
Rutgers/Navy U49
Nebraska -8
Pennst -17 Really hate didn't get early lines for this game now so will probably avoid now as not sure still value here. Is Notre Dame really that bad and can they even move the ball against a tougher Def of Pennstate?

27-9ytd, +10.282units

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

repost - anyone know what DrBob said on UNC v ECU? It looks like the line has dropped some but not sure. Just curious.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I'd lean over on Rutgers/Navy. Navy's only got 3 starters back on D this year, and they gave up a ton of yards to Temple in their opener. I think the side on Rutgers is better than taking the total, but if I were to bet the total, it would definitely be the over.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Rutgers -16 2.6u to win 2.3
WVU -24 1.1u to win 1u

CFB: 9-5, +3.25u
NFL: 0-2, -2.4u

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

i didn't post any of my bets here and few of them are available now, but who knows, maybe they will be helpful to someone. i went 21-21 last week.

cincy +3.5
rutgers -14.5 1 unit
navy +17 2 unit
marshall +24.5
northwestern -9
temple -3 small
penn st. -16 small
tcu +10 small
fau +23.5
vandy +4 small
auburn -6.5 small
oregon +7.5

bg/msu over 57 (now 57)
af/utah under 48.5 (now 47)
sjsu/ksu under 45 (now 43.5)
duke/uva over 38 (now 41)
nev/northw over 48.5 (now 52.5)
navy/rutgers under 49 small (now 48.5)
fau/osu under 54 (now 54)

many more to come saturday morning, to the point where i stop keeping track

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

wow is that georgia line moving, I think it's good at 5 1/2 but it's at 3 1/2 right now, pretty easy bet I think

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

can get UGA -3 -115 at 5dimes right now

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

YTD 2-0, +4 units

Neb -8 2u
Clemson -26.5 2u
TCU/Tex U44 1u

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I wish I'd taken South Carolina at +5.5. I had that game penciled in as an upset before the season, and I figured the -5.5 was an overreaction to Week 1, but everyone here talked me out of it when all of SC's players were suspended. Oh well, I'm sure as hell not betting it now.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

sick im putting my paycheck on it

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

My lord I hope you are kidding.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Leaning WV -24 and especially -23.5 if it gets there.
Anyonw have thoughts on how square/stupid this one is?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I don't think this is that square/stupid. Close to same type game they had last week. Line is pretty fair is only reason I am not touching it.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Leaning WV -24 and especially -23.5 if it gets there.
Anyonw have thoughts on how square/stupid this one is?

[/ QUOTE ]

i had a losing bet on marshall last week, and i watched most of the game through yahoo boxscores. they outgained miami in the first half but trailed, and moved the ball okay in the second half (mostly on the ground) too, but only put up 3 points total.

i dunno, i bet against wva last week and also lost that one. and as soon as i saw that slaton and white were both still on wva, i felt kinda dumb about fading them. but here i go again...

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Just FYI: Are you familiar with WVU's goal of AVERAGING 50 points a game? They scored 62 last week...

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Leaning WV -24 and especially -23.5 if it gets there.
Anyonw have thoughts on how square/stupid this one is?

[/ QUOTE ]

i had a losing bet on marshall last week, and i watched most of the game through yahoo boxscores. they outgained miami in the first half but trailed, and moved the ball okay in the second half (mostly on the ground) too, but only put up 3 points total.

i dunno, i bet against wva last week and also lost that one. and as soon as i saw that slaton and white were both still on wva, i felt kinda dumb about fading them. but here i go again...

[/ QUOTE ]

3.5 ypp for Marshall and 4 turnovers. If they got more 1st half yds it's because Miami started posessions on the Marshall 1 and 12 yd line. Can't penalize Miami/reward Marshall for that!

I like WVa at -23.5, but close to fair imho.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Big on these four games:

Penn St -18 vs Notre Dame
Hawaii -28 vs La Tech
Nebraska -8.5 vs Wake Forest (bet 1.1u to win 1u)
Bowling Green +18 vs Michigan St (bet 3.3u to win 3u)

As well as a 0.5u to win 5.88 four-team parlay on each of those (just for fun) and a 0.5u to win 3u three-team round-robin (so 2u to win 12u)

So, altogether 6.9u to win 21.88u. Boy this will suck if more than one of those bets bombs out on me. Hm.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Week 2 plays:

West Virginia -24 (-120) (3u to win 2.5)
Temple -3 (2.2u to win 2)
Hawaii -27.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Rutgers -13.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice +7 (2.2u to win 2)
Rice ML +250 (0.5u to win 1.25)
Akron/OSU Under 52.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Air Force/Utah Under 48.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Bowling Green +18 (1.1u to win 1)

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Memphis -3.5 at Ark St.
Missouri -5.5 at Ole Miss
Georgia -3.5 vs So. Carolina
Louisville -41 (not so much)

Mulling Bama -3.5 at Vandy and UVA 17.5 vs Duke and Florida -26.5 vs Troy St

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

My square gambling friends, who went 1-1 last week on their 'bsp' picks love 2 games this week. I am not making these BSP picks because it's early and it's college. True BSP picks are really just for NFL, due to parity, and much harder to beat lines for squares.

They love Rutgers -16.5 [I'm on this -13], over 90%.
They love BC -14 as well. RU was also the PoTW that was most mentioned. And a few said Okla -10.5 was the Lock you can bet your paycheck on. As you can see, they like big favorites [like VT last week] and don't care when the lines move against them. Just fyi.

{RU and BC lines falling already as sharps come in, no surprise.}

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Memphis -3.5 at Ark St.
Missouri -5.5 at Ole Miss
Georgia -3.5 vs So. Carolina
Louisville -41 (not so much)

Mulling Bama -3.5 at Vandy and UVA 17.5 vs Duke and Florida -26.5 vs Troy St

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet favorites much?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

total donk parlay
0.1u to win 1.26u
NW -10
BG +18
Vandy +3.5
Hawaii -27.5
def feel there is value in NW and Vandy lines, but I have enough action this week...probably too much for Week 2. Still hoping Mia/Ok total goes up.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Memphis -3.5 at Ark St.
Missouri -5.5 at Ole Miss
Georgia -3.5 vs So. Carolina
Louisville -41 (not so much)

Mulling Bama -3.5 at Vandy and UVA 17.5 vs Duke and Florida -26.5 vs Troy St

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet favorites much?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know and I hate it. The Louisville game was the first (and maybe last) time I've ever laid that many pts.

I like Mizzou b/c I watched the Memphis/Ole Miss game last week and I think the Rebs are absolutely terrible. Of the 23 points they scored 14 came off of a blocked punt and a 100 yard interception return. Memphis moved the ball on them the almost the entire game.

As far as Memphis (I am an alum, but not a huge Tigers football fan). Their defense only gave up 74 yds rushing to Ole Miss's #1 back and highly rated O-line. Memphis lost at home to Ark St. last year and should be fired up for this game. ASU will be as well, but last year Memphis did not take them seriously as hard as that may be to believe given that they ended up 2-10.

Also I would note that I took BG +18 but did not want to mention it b/c I know nothing about the game but trust some of the guys who like it. Me saying I took that game doesn't really add any value to the board since there was no independent analysis on my part.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I like Fla and Memphis bets, Troy should be banged up a lot more, but I also like Vandy and SoCar+4. So I'm of no help to you, I guess. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lean over on Rutgers/Navy. Navy's only got 3 starters back on D this year, and they gave up a ton of yards to Temple in their opener. I think the side on Rutgers is better than taking the total, but if I were to bet the total, it would definitely be the over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with this 100%.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

fsu -34.5
rut/nav over 48 (got this at 5pm at a normally fast book)
ntexas/smu over 45 (same story different book)
mia/okla u 43.5

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I'm on TCU -10 for a couple units. Might grab a little of the ML as well. I think if TCU gets some good field position via turnover or special teams Texas could be in trouble.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

I'm leaning Memphis -3.5 as well.
They seemed somewhat impressive in their close-call with Ole Miss.
This is more of a revenge game for Memphis than I think some people realize. That loss they took to Ark St last year at their home-field really stung and embarassed them and I can guarantee they've been looking forward to this rematch a ton.
Very much agree with NateDogg's take on their motivation factor being through the roof.

I'm on Navy +17 tonight as well fwiw.

Still haven't taken WV yet.
Would really like to get that off the 24.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

UAB/FSU total now at 53.5. Really moved against me.

I'd like to add a little, BUT THERE IS NO WAY HUMANLY POSSIBLE TO GET ANY [censored] MONEY INTO [censored] MATCHBOOK.

Did you know Bookmaker charges a $200 (!) flat fee to transfer to Matchbook? And Greek is making me rollover my deposit THAT I ONLY DEPOSITED TO TRANSFER TO MATCHBOOK before I can do anything... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]...AND NONE OF MY [censored] CREDIT CARDS WORK ANYMORE, THANKS FOR KEEPING ME SAFE US GOV'T.

Edit: And also, WHY IN THE !$#!#$#$! !$#!$#!#$ DO THESE SPORTSBOOKS LIST SOME VAGUE "MONEY TRANSFER" OPTION INSTEAD OF JUST PUTTING $#!@$#!@$# MONEYGRAM SO I DON'T HAVE TO CALL AND PLAY 20 QUESTIONS WITH SOMEONE WHOSE 5TH LANGUAGE IS ENGLISH TO FIGURE OUT WTF IS GOING ON?!?!?

[/rant]

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

x-posted from the other thread

Rutgers -14.5 v Navy 1 Unit
W. Virginia -23.5 @ Marshall 1 Unit
Nebraska -7 @ Wake Forest 3 Units
Virginia -16.5 v Duke 1 Unit
Colorado St +14 v California 1 Unit
LSU -12.5 v Virginia Tech 1 Unit
Florida -26.5 v Troy 1 Unit
Memphis -4 @ Arkansas St 1 Unit
Missouri -6 @ Mississippi 1 Unit
Washington +3 v Boise St 1 Unit
Washington ML +130 v Boise St 1 Unit
Georgia -4.5 v S. Carolina 2 Units
Miami/Oklahoma Under 43 1 Unit
Buffalo/Temple Under 47 1 Unit
Nebraska/Wake Forest Over 50 1 Unit
Kent St/Kentucky Over 51.5 1 Unit
Rutgers/Navy Under 50 1 Unit

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Can somebody explain to me why every analyst is touting LSU's stadium like it's the best homefield ever? Didn't they have like a ~10 year streak w/ Alabama where the road team won like every single game? Didn't they lose to a mediocre Florida team at home the year they won the NC? Didn't they choke away a 3 TD lead at home vs. Tennessee a couple years ago?

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

You forgot the fact that most analysts have selective memory and don't know squat about 75% of what they say.

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain to me why every analyst is touting LSU's stadium like it's the best homefield ever? Didn't they have like a ~10 year streak w/ Alabama where the road team won like every single game? Didn't they lose to a mediocre Florida team at home the year they won the NC? Didn't they choke away a 3 TD lead at home vs. Tennessee a couple years ago?

[/ QUOTE ]

probably because they've seen a game there

I've been to many stadiums (most of the famous ones) and nothing comes close to the atmosphere at LSU for a night game

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

Good one, MyTurn. It's not like the numbers don't bear out a large home advantage for LSU though anyway. The last 3 years, LSU's 20-1 at home and 9-4 on the road. Over the last 7 years, you can make that 43-6 vs. 20-11.

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Rutgers 2nd half under 24 1 Unit

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rutgers/navy over 24 +100 and -105

Re: Week 2 NCAA thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: And also, WHY IN THE !$#!#$#$! !$#!$#!#$ DO THESE SPORTSBOOKS LIST SOME VAGUE "MONEY TRANSFER" OPTION INSTEAD OF JUST PUTTING $#!@$#!@$# MONEYGRAM SO I DON'T HAVE TO CALL AND PLAY 20 QUESTIONS WITH SOMEONE WHOSE 5TH LANGUAGE IS ENGLISH TO FIGURE OUT WTF IS GOING ON?!?!?


[/ QUOTE ]

to help protect moneygram (and western union) from the u.s. government