A-Rod total home runs
 

Early in the season, I made a bet with a friend of mine on A-Rod's regular season home run total for this year. I bet my friend $1,000 that A-Rod would hit fewer than 52.5 home runs this year.

Obviously, I'm underwater on this bet right now. My friend has made me an offer to get out of the bet. I won't say what his number was right away- I'd like the mathematicians of this forum to do their best to price out what his marked to market p+l is on his position, and give me the number.

Obviously determining the fair value isn't all that easy. You can pro-rate his home run rate over the rest of the year, but do you use his home run rate this year or his career home run rate? Also, you have to look at the opposing teams he'll be facing between now and the rest of the season and the caliber of their pitching, you have to factor in injury risk, and then you have to factor in the risk of him getting benched if the Yanks clinch. Lots to think about here.

I'd like to see what people here come up with, then I'll let everyone know what his offer was and we can see if it's good. Today is Thursday and the yanks are idle. So I have until game time tomorrow to decide.

Thanks in advance for helping me out with this.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

Haha...pudge ship me my $50.



edit: Arod will probably get injured now.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

A-Rod is on pace for 55-57 HRs.

His career pace is 41.72 so he is running well. He's only hit 57 one other year. I'd say his target would be around 53-54 if he doesn't get injured. But A-rod is NOT injury prone. In his last 6 years he's played at least 154 games a year averaging 158. And with the Yankees in the playoff race he isn't going to get any time off from a management perspective.

The Yankees play Kansas city, Tor, and Boston. Kansas City thrown Gil Meche, Brian Bannister who are + pitchers, and Zach Greinke who is not. He faces Marcum, McGowen and Burnett so he'll miss Haliday. Then he'll face Boston vs D-mats, Beckett and Schilling. After that it's hard to tell. I'd say that's not an ideal pitching lineup but it's far from facing Johan every night.

Given that you still have a chance to win, you're not paying as much as you think pro-rated. But I'd still put it around $500 as a good deal for you.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

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sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

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sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

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That's up to them to figure out. If the guy will go str8 up probability he should try to get it.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

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Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

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sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

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That's up to them to figure out. If the guy will go str8 up probability he should try to get it.

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He offered me $550. I thought it was an OK offer, but I am likely going to pass.

Basically, I've mentally prepared myself for the loss. I can suck it up and take a loss. What will really hurt is handing him $550 and then having the bet go the other way.

Basically, at this point, I really don't want to risk $1,550 to make $450, which is essentially what I'd be doing.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

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Yup.. good point. I have done that.

I'm going to let it ride. I'll probably lose, but I'd rather give myself a shot.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

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Yup.. good point. I have done that.

I'm going to let it ride. I'll probably lose, but I'd rather give myself a shot.

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i woulda offered $500 and if he said yes made the deal.

49.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

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Yup.. good point. I have done that.

I'm going to let it ride. I'll probably lose, but I'd rather give myself a shot.

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i woulda offered $500 and if he said yes made the deal.

49.

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I offered $460 and thought I might pay up to $500, but he said $550 was the lowest he'd go.

I probably should have taken it, but I'm too stubborn. Now I'm going to have to pay him a grand.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

unless you personally are going to NYC to break both of a-rods knees, i don't know what you're banking on that you said no to a $550 buyout. no way a-rod hits under 53

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

arod. so hot right now.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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I'd say that's not an ideal pitching lineup but it's far from facing Johan every night.

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Johan has been giving up a ton of HRs this year, still having an overall reasonably strong season

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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I'd say that's not an ideal pitching lineup but it's far from facing Johan every night.

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Johan has been giving up a ton of HRs this year, still having an overall reasonably strong season

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Obviously not even close to the point.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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I'd say that's not an ideal pitching lineup but it's far from facing Johan every night.

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Johan has been giving up a ton of HRs this year, still having an overall reasonably strong season

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NIT

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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arod. so hot right now.

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Right now, he's at career highs for OBP, SLG, and OPS. Basically, he's having the best offensive season of his career.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Right now, he's at career highs for OBP, SLG, and OPS. Basically, he's having the best offensive season of his career.

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He currently leads a 43-year old man with a hobbled leg in OPS by a mere 0.003 points, and actually trails the old man in EqA .366 to .357. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids. AROD will be a freaking god if he passes him.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids.

[/ QUOTE ]That, and he's extremely arrogant. If he takes a Giambi-type line, the public venom level wouldn't have been so high.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids. AROD will be a freaking god if he passes him.

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Depends how many rings he has.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids. AROD will be a freaking god if he passes him.

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Depends how many rings he has.

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For Yankees fans, yes.

For everyone else, who just hates Barry Bonds, no.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids and he's a prick . AROD will be a freaking god if he passes him.

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Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

51.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

buyout just shot up to 950

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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They hate Bonds because of Steroids. AROD will be a freaking god if he passes him.

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It is far more accurate to say they hate steroids because of Bonds than that they hate Bonds because of steroids. Obviously neither one is 100% correct, and SOME of the Bonds hate is steroid-related, but certainly not most of it. Whereas the majority of steroids hate is certainly Bonds related.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

Arod needs 2 more homeruns for you to lose this bet. The longest stretch this year where Arod did not hit 2 homeruns is from April 24 - May 18, 22 games with only 1 HR. There are 20 games left in the season. I would give your friend up to $950 to end this bet.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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It is far more accurate to say they hate steroids because of Bonds than that they hate Bonds because of steroids. Obviously neither one is 100% correct, and SOME of the Bonds hate is steroid-related, but certainly not most of it. Whereas the majority of steroids hate is certainly Bonds related.

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This is certainly true. Most people fail to realize that Giambi was collateral damage in an investigation directed at "getting Bonds".

So was everyone named in the Grimsley Report, as it disappeared when Bonds wasn't implicated.

Same with the Mets clubbie investigation.

And just recently, the Signature Pharmacy bust that netted Harrison, Glaus, Ankiel, and Wade Wilson.....was initiated with assistance of Agent Jeff Novitzky and then the two SI reporters rode along on the raid in hopes of finding evidence against Bonds.

Steroids were the convenient excuse of the media to villify Bonds, and if it hadn't been that, it would have just been something else.

It's an unintended consequence that others are getting caught up in the crossfire, and it shows in that the media has been hypocritical in rationalizing their cases, while still spewing vitriol at Bonds despite not being able to get anything concrete on him.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Hi Redbean

If A-rod ever gets close to the home run record do you think people will hate him as much as Bonds or have they used all their hate on Bonds so they'll have to like A-rod?

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I certainly hope not, but I'm sure there will be segments of "fans" and media who are envious of the accomplishments and will latch onto whatever convenient excuse presents itself to mitigate A-rod.

They did the same thing with Aaron 30 years ago, and now they like to pretend that never happened.

But, I think those that spewed the most hate at Bonds will be forced into being overly supportive of Arod, just for the sake of highlighting their percieved differences, much like they are currently treating different alleged PED users with stark hypocrisy.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Early in the season, I made a bet with a friend of mine on A-Rod's regular season home run total for this year. I bet my friend $1,000 that A-Rod would hit fewer than 52.5 home runs this year.

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Early in the season? Maybe sports betting isn't for you. =/

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Early in the season, I made a bet with a friend of mine on A-Rod's regular season home run total for this year. I bet my friend $1,000 that A-Rod would hit fewer than 52.5 home runs this year.

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Early in the season? Maybe sports betting isn't for you. =/

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Maybe not after this bet. I have made a small fortune betting NFL regular season win totals over the past four years though.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

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Arod needs 2 more homeruns for you to lose this bet. The longest stretch this year where Arod did not hit 2 homeruns is from April 24 - May 18, 22 games with only 1 HR. There are 20 games left in the season. I would give your friend up to $950 to end this bet.

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Most people are irrationally risk averse. I bet I could convince most people (non-pro sports bettors) to settle for $800-850. That's not to say I wouldn't be willing to negotiate up to your number, just that he shouldn't lowball himself right away.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

lol

52

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lol

52

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he has had a monster last 8games

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at least like, you arent going to have to sweat out the bet until the last game. you'll just lose really quickly.

Re: A-Rod total home runs
 

HGH
it just works

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HGH
it just works

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so does suicide. gogoogo.

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HGH
it just works

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Uh, no it doesn't, according to all valid scientific studies. As already suggested GKY...