Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Only been at the table for 30 minutes, so specific reads are questionable at best. The table is definitely WAY too loose preflop, and I haven't spotted a single player I'm worried about.

4 limpers and I raise A9d in the CO. BB calls, as do all the limpers of course.

6 handed, 12 small bets:

8d 3d 8c

Checked to me and I bet for value. Three players call. One is very, very loose and has ATC, one is logical but could have close to ATC, and the other just sat down.

4h, now 8 big bets

Checked to me and I (???)

1. Keep betting! You're a TAG, aren't you?
2. Take the free card. They're offering it so generously!

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

dont bet. you're gonna hate yourself if you get check raised by an 8.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Take the free card. Consider:

1. You aren't going to win unimproved that often here, so two of the main reasons to bet (i. hand protection and ii. the ability to showdown the river for free) are mitigated here. If you held AdKd, there would be considerably more reason to raise here. (Get it?)

2. In a live game, with a paired board, and that and that many callers, you are very likely to get check-raised by trips.

3. There aren't enough players in the pot to generate a situation where you are nearly breakeven on your equity even when behind.

So this is a pretty standard check in my opinion.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Yeah, it's a pretty standard check if you have half a brain, which apparently I was lacking at the tables last night. Thanks for confirming.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Easy bet. If someone has an Eight then I'll just have to suck-out on the river.

If we didn't raise pre-flop, I'll think about checking.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

* grunch *

I take the free card.

The difference between this hand and the two hands I questioned about today (under "making myself pay for my own draws") is that in my hands I was heads up on the turn and actually felt there was a chance I could be ahead. In those cases I didn't want my opponent to draw for free if I was ahead, there was a chance I could win the pot right there (heads up) plus if I was behind I had a chance at drawing to the best hand. In this hand you are up against 3 opponents; I think there's a fairly good chance at least one of them is beating you. It's also unlikely that you're going to knock out 3 players with a bet. And getting checkraised would suck. I take the free card.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's also unlikely that you're going to knock out 3 players with a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It happens often enough to make betting +EV. Players in these games are calling a flop bet with a wide range of hands that won't call a turn bet if we have a tight/winning image. We might even win a showdown checking behind the river when we otherwise would have had to fold to an induced river bluff.

I think checking here is an example of thinking about trying to save bets when we really should be trying to win a big pot.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Huh...so at least one person who knows what he's doing says this is a bet. Fnord, you just keep firing away here based on the fact that it's very possible none of my opponents have a pair yet?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]

It happens often enough to make betting +EV. Players in these games are calling a flop bet with a wide range of hands that won't call a turn bet if we have a tight/winning image. We might even win a showdown checking behind the river when we otherwise would have had to fold to an induced river bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? All 3 opponents, who've called a paired flop, are going to fold enough of the time? I'm not convinced of this...

As for the river, I admit that when we whiff we now open ourselves up for a bluff bet. But against 3 opponents on the river I really don't think my A9 high is going to be good all that often so I don't have any problem folding... is this all too weak?

GplayingwithmycardsfaceupG

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Lemming #1 has AJ and didn't improve, he puts you on a pair because you're so darn tight and feels good about folding to your turn bet after making a good flop call.

Lemming #2 has 22 and peeled the flop because he thinks he has pot odds to draw to his 2 outer and also wants to see if you'll give up on over-cards. He also folds.

Lemming #3 has Queen rag of Diamonds and calls because he's on a flush draw.

On the river it goes check, check and we scoop. It happens.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

can i interject the main point that a lot of people are seeming to forget, which is that we don't have anything?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

LOLOL

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Check and make a crying call when you river a 9.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

SSHE p173-175
Raising for a Free Card: Turning Down the Free Card

"In the long run it's better to win more pots, even if it means being occasionally trapped for an extra bet."

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
SSHE p173-175
Raising for a Free Card: Turning Down the Free Card

"In the long run it's better to win more pots, even if it means being occasionally trapped for an extra bet."

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. The hand example on pg. 174 is very similar to this situation. If SB is indeed a passive old lady, maybe your turn bet does have fold equity. I don't know, I still like a free card here.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

fnord, i'm not sure really what you're talking about in several of the posts you've made in this thread, and i can't tell if you're being facetious or serious, which probably would affect my feelings - if i knew which one it was [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Checked to me and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This implies you should c-bet the turn for value, right?

What is it about this board that scares you? I probably bet simply because no one else has shown strength. You want to get rivered by some schmuck that would've folded to a measly turn bet? In most 6/12 situations this is easy bet for me...

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i can't tell if you're being facetious or serious

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm serious and disappointed that several regulars would play this so weak. Putting anyone on an Eight at this point is silly. Running bad?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I probably bet simply because no one else has shown strength.

[/ QUOTE ]


the flop is freakin 883.

3 people called.

wtf are they calling with?

even the dumbest 10/20 players in my game arent calling this flop with 2 random cards. the games may be good, but they arent THAT good.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

someone will often have an 8 and you get CRed. Also, your FD equity is never as good as usual on a paired board. You aren't going to win UI. Take the free card.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

FNORD,

The pot isn't big enough for the 3 event parlay that you want to see happen. SOMEONE definitely has something here, and it's often an 8. We simply will not win UI or take down the pot often enough to justify this.
It's a very different situation if the pot is like 4bb larger or the board isn't paired. Then it's easier to put all of them on overcards/gutshots etc., and justify a bet.

In general, I think 2p2ers fail to make distinctions between large pots and monster pots. This is the former, and you're advocating play for the latter.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the games may be good, but they arent THAT good.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are in California!

[ QUOTE ]
wtf are they calling with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any 2 cards Ten or higher, worse flush draws and god-knows-what-else. Reads say these guys suck and terrible players aren't folding much on a blank flop for a small bet. I'll conceade that if our opponents were tighter or capable of c/ring a wide range on the turn, the turn is a check.

[ QUOTE ]
It's a very different situation if the pot is like 4bb larger or the board isn't paired. Then it's easier to put all of them on overcards/gutshots etc., and justify a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's easier to put them on a piece of the board if it wasn't paired! There are eight bets in the pot, plenty big enough to run with flush outs.

Screw me, I'm just some donk on a message board who misreads action. Do you disagree with the example in SSHE? How is this hand different?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I probably bet simply because no one else has shown strength.

[/ QUOTE ]


the flop is freakin 883.

3 people called.

wtf are they calling with?

even the dumbest 10/20 players in my game arent calling this flop with 2 random cards. the games may be good, but they arent THAT good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chances are greater they're calling flop with junk when you're last to act. That's why you bet here. If you were first to act, it's an easy check...

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

You are correct that the hand is similar to that in SSHE. There are three differences, however, that bear some consideration.

1) There are three callers here and only two in SSHE.

2) The SSHE hand has a J33 board, i.e., an overcard to the pair. It's much easier to fold loose players that'll peel the flop with ATC after your PFR with the overcard.

3) The other difference- and I think this is more germane- is that the SSHE board pair is 33, not 88. I think it is much more likely that a caller would have an 8 in his hand than a 3, although neither should be discounted, of course.

I think it is highly unlikely that none of three flop callers didn't catch at least something they felt like they could call your bet with.

I'm taking the freebie here.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

i would check.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

im not sure about the pf raise here

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Checked to me and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

This implies you should c-bet the turn for value, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop we have about a 1/3 chance of making our nut flush by the river; one of the reasons we bet is if we get 3 callers we've just made money (i.e. we're putting 1/4 of the money into a pot we're going to win 1/3 of the time). On the turn things change drastically as now we're only going to make the nut flush 1/5 of the time; we no longer have an equity advantage so we can't bet for that reason (although there may be other reasons to bet).

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

pf raise is fairly standard in loose games. You'd pretty much instaraise ATs from early position, so raising the likes of A9s, QTs, even 98s are fine from cutoff or button....moreso from CO because you can "buy the button."

Sometimes I bet the turn vs players who peel flop light, yes even 3 of them. Any tricky sandbaggers (who'd c/r with an 8 or 22!) and rocks who call down with 44, well then I check.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Check on turn and take the free card.
You are almost surely beat as of the turn.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Hey, good for me. 400 posts in, one of my hands finally generated some serious and interesting discussion. I'll try to summarize so far. I'll likely fail:

1. Holy crap, this hand is all but identical to the one on page 174 of SSHE.

2. Lots of people think I should take the free card, given that at present I have no hand. One has said:

the flop is freakin 883.
3 people called.
wtf are they calling with?

With this statement I basically concur. Again, I submit that everyone is retarded, but seriously, what on earth could they have? They are at least functionally retarded, as they have navigated themselves to the casino and purchased chips.

3. Some people think not betting would be sinful. One has said:

"Checked to me and I bet for value"
This implies you should c-bet the turn for value,right?

Which to say the least hurts my head (of course, its 3am as I write this, so what to I know at this point). Why does betting a nut flush draw on the flop for value against the whole world, when I'm only 2:1 against to bring it in, imply I should c-bet the turn when I'm 4:1 to bring it in against half the world?

I'm not really sure what to think. At the time of posting, I was quite sure everyone could concur that I needed to take the free card. However, the example from SSHE, and some talented player(s), seem to disagree.

At the risk of killing the discussion, I'm going to post the results now, then go to sleep (Edit: It didn't post last night for some reason, reposting now)

Hero bets.

Player A (the one with ATC) folds. Player B (the one who just sat down), also folds. Player C, the one who is semi-rational, raises.

Hero calls.

River = brick

Villain bets, hero mucks, villain shows the 7c and acts like he bluffed me out. Hero would lay 50:1 he had an 8.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lemming #1 has AJ and didn't improve, he puts you on a pair because you're so darn tight and feels good about folding to your turn bet after making a good flop call.

Lemming #2 has 22 and peeled the flop because he thinks he has pot odds to draw to his 2 outer and also wants to see if you'll give up on over-cards. He also folds.

Lemming #3 has Queen rag of Diamonds and calls because he's on a flush draw.

On the river it goes check, check and we scoop. It happens rarely.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

I agree that it's rare, but betting out sets up several uncommon/rare events that collectivly make this a better spot to bet than to check behind.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

I agree with Fnord, I would bet this turn. Live players will call this flop with any two overcards. They'll probably fold to a bet on the turn though, even though they'd have the odds to call if they knew what you had. Getting check-raised isn't that horrible either since your draw is pretty strong, if I had less outs I'd be more inclined to take the free card.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Isnt it pretty close to even if we get c/r? We're paying 2 BB in a 12 BB pot. Its not as good obviously as 0 bets for 8BB, but there IS fold equity in live SLHE. There is also a chance we get turn callers that don't have an 8. That plus the fold chance is >> chance we hit and lose to a boat (but the big -).

Not quantitated, but I've noticed when I'm running well I bet here, when I'm running bad I check, and when I'm on tilt on I 3 bet the c/r.

I'd bet. The extra chance to rake in 8BB UI is probably close EV and I try to stay on the agressive side in such cases.

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

I take the free card.

Incidentally, does anyone else limp the A9 preflop to keep the pot small if we hit the flop hard?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Incidentally, does anyone else limp the A9 preflop to keep the pot small if we hit the flop hard?

[/ QUOTE ]

so when you flop the nuts you want to win a small pot?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

To those saying bet...are you bettting this turn with A9 and no flush draw?

Re: Live 6/12, A9s - keep betting the draw?
 

Generally speaking, yes, but then it's usually the last bet I put into this pot...