10NL trying to work out EV
 

I am trying to work out if a call in these two hands is + or -EV...

I am assuming in both cases that if I make my hand I am going to win...

Hand 1)

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($10.64)</font>
Hero ($15.36)
BB ($14.26)
UTG ($10.42)
MP ($4.09)
CO ($11.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.4</font>, Hero calls $0.35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($0.90) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $10.24 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...


So... here goes:

First off - I think a flat call would have been better on the flop... I have a read on this guy that he raised PPs pf but folded if he did not hit, but anyways - flop c/r is bad - but do I call shove?

Pot is 10+3+1 = ~14
I need to call ~7 more
I have 9 outs = 9x2x2 = ~35% chance to make my flush

So = EV = (-7*0.65)+(14*0.35) = -4.55 + 5 = 0.45 = so a call is very marginal here and probably neutral EV?



Hand 2)

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">MP ($12.83)</font>
Hero ($9.85)
SB ($13.73)
BB ($5.78)
UTG ($12.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.8</font>, MP calls $0.80.

Turn: ($2.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $11.53 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...

Ok -&gt;

Pot is 11.5+1.7+2.75 = ~ 16
I need to call 10 more
I have 12 outs = 12*2 = ~25% chance of making my hand

EV = (-10*0.75)+(16*0.25) = -7.5 + 4 = -3.5 so -EV




Please can my calculations be checked and advise me as to if I am calculating EV correctly

Thanks

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

How should you figure in the probability that you are even drawing live in hand 1? AhKh, AhQh, Ah10h, KhQh should be in villans range. I am not sure how you throw that in there, but I would think it would make your call -EV.

And I think your outs in hand 2 are off by at least 1 due to heart flush going the other way.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

I'm not really a math guy so i can't help there but they calculations look good, but like Perk76 said in the first hand i doubt you are good that full 35% if you do hit.

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

[ QUOTE ]

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

[/ QUOTE ]

just wondering, why do you say he should check behind for pot control? It seems better to bet with folding equity/flush draw/straight draw, especially since villain has been passive. correct me if i'm wrong.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

I dont now abut hand 1,

but for hand 2, it seems -EV just based on pot odds.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

Thanks for the replies - but I am not really looking for comments on how I played that hands but rather how well I worked out the EV.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

[/ QUOTE ]

just wondering, why do you say he should check behind for pot control? It seems better to bet with folding equity/flush draw/straight draw, especially since villain has been passive. correct me if i'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we have much FE here. The 5d is not going to scare villain if he was calling with TP +, and if he was willing to call with a draw on the flop he'll probably do so again on the turn.

I also like checking behind because our flush is well disguised if we hit it.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies - but I am not really looking for comments on how I played that hands but rather how well I worked out the EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your calculations are close enough, but you need to learn how to use discounted outs instead of naive outs.

Hand 1 - You don't have 9 outs. You need to consider the possibility that your villain is drawing to a better flush. This means that you probably have 8 outs at most.

Hand 2 - You don't have 12 outs. You should discount the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. And indeed, maybe partially the other three Q's as well as villain may have AT so a Q will give him a higher straight. I'd say you have 9-9.5 outs here.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

In both hands you need to discount your flush because it is not the nuts and it is subject to redraws (2 pair/trips/set making a full house).

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

this discounted outs stuff is fine for some quick in game stuff, but really you guys need to work with pokerstove and learn how these hands do against a reasonable RANGE for villain not just how many outs you think you have.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

based on my glance
i think hand 1 is close..
and
hand 2 is probably -EV

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

In this case for hand 1, I think the estimate of equity is only marginally high. Having the nut flush draw makes our hand stronger than this method of estimation would indicate, not having it makes the estimate OK.

The reason is as is carnivalhobo suggests about villains range here. He has potentially a wide range to push TT+ and Axs in hearts. The pairs and set hands account for about 27 combos, the flush hands he may have would mostly be larger Axs hands for about 5 or 6 combos. We are therefore drawing live against 80% of his range and for the other 20% we are drawing against a higher flush draw we can still win about 25% of the time when we pair and villain doesn't. As you can see the relatively small number of flush draws that are likely plus the high number of hands villain can be pushing make our draw quite robust.

When we have the nut flush draw on this board we gain quite a bit from having 3 extra outs to beat KK, QQ and JJ hands (accounting for 18 combos and therefore about 70% of his range) aswell as by not having to consider nut flush draws as part of villains push range. The result would probably be an increased equity to about 40%+.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

hand 1)

there is 15.04$ in the pot and it's 7$ for you to call, therefore getting 2.08:1 pot odds to call.

you've got a flush draw therefore needing 1.86:1 pot odd to call.

EV = 1*(15.04$) + 1.86*(-7.24$) = 15.04$ - 13.46$ == + 1.54$

therefore, a call would have positive expectation

edit: that is true, if you believe your flush would win the pot only

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

hand 2)

there is 15.98$ in the pot, and it's 9.83$ for you to call. Giving a 1.62:1 pot odds.

you've got 12 outs, needing 2.833:1 odds or better to call.

EV = 1*(15.98$) + 2.833(-9.83$) = 15.98 - 27.84$ == -11.86$

Therefore, a call would have negative expectation.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

im not counting ev on fly, but as played, I will prolly fold both. and hand 1 is far more better to call with than the second one which is a clear fold to me.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

[ QUOTE ]
this discounted outs stuff is fine for some quick in game stuff, but really you guys need to work with pokerstove and learn how these hands do against a reasonable RANGE for villain not just how many outs you think you have.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, when reviewing hands off the table pokerstove is much better. And it is free and easy.

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

wooster...why did u add 5 in the first hand and 4 in the second hand to the EV calculation

Re: 10NL trying to work out EV
 

In hand 1, as people suggest, you have to discount your flush draw outs given that 3 of a kind can make a full house, villain may be drawing to higher flush etc. However, you can also add perhaps half an out as you have a back door straight draw.