QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

the villian here is in the BB showin about 22.4/10.3/2.54 over ~50 hands. im pretty sure all sts. are standard the question here is there value in a river bet.

i want to see what u guys do on this river. if u guys play any st. different i would like input but this is how i would pretty much play it every time. not saying im right i just would like to know

also i dont know why the deuces cracked converter makes it say cappies on the flop. i think thats kinda gay but ohh well heres the hand....

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#FF0000">CO 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#FF0000">BB cappies</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16.00 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SB calls, <font color="#FF0000">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#FF0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero??????

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

I certainly don't bet because BB has AA/KK and isn't folding. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

You could probably have folded the turn. It's possible he just has AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here but there is only one combination of that.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

id bet this river. i cant see what hands bb has that would merit a c/r. two overs and possibly a busted flush draw

i also think he will call you with a couple of hands that you beat.

if anyone of them raises call and make a note

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

check behind. that river scared the preflop cold capper as much as you.

you could cap the flop and see if he bets into you on the turn.

I'm more scared of SB than BB.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

i think the river is close, you have one guy who you can apply a range to (JJ+ and maybe TT; [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and maybe another A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Kx hand but that's ulikely) ...
the value mostly comes from what clearly appears to be a retard (loser guy cc3 PF, then cc2 on the flop). What does this guy have, who knows? But you likely beat him

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think the river is close, you have one guy who you can apply a range to (JJ+ and maybe TT; [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and maybe another A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Kx hand but that's ulikely) ...
the value mostly comes from what clearly appears to be a retard (loser guy cc3 PF, then cc2 on the flop). What does this guy have, who knows? But you likely beat him

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think many people cap JJ, TT, or random Kxs preflop.

It looks to me that SB has some sort of draw. If its a flush draw him obviously missed but all the good straights draws made it by the river.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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You could probably have folded the turn. It's possible he just has AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here but there is only one combination of that.

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huh? There's no way I'm folding the turn.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

What was the flop raise for ?

I would not have expected you to have a better hand than the preflop capper (with those stats) who then led the flop.

The pot on the flop was also too big to give most drawing hands incorrect odds to call a raise.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

You guys are the bane of kittens everywhere. As limiting as only 50 hands is, I think plenty of 22/10/2.5s cap JJ, TT, AK pf here. SB may be [censored]. A lowball flop like this is perfectly inviting for a guy to 3bang with those pocket pair and with the Q of trump I make it 4 and see if our friend leads the turn. Fire on the river for value.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are the bane of kittens everywhere. As limiting as only 50 hands is, I think plenty of 22/10/2.5s cap JJ, TT, AK pf here. SB may be [censored]. A lowball flop like this is perfectly inviting for a guy to 3bang with those pocket pair and with the Q of trump I make it 4 and see if our friend leads the turn. Fire on the river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't in any game I have ever played. Not even in most the 6max games I have been in. But I certainly agree that if JJ and TT is part of vilians range that you cant fold anywhere in this hand.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

lol @ folding the turn

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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Really? I have a pfr of 11 and don't cap TT usually, and generally not JJ either when I wasn't the first raiser.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

Anyway, say BB has AA or KK 50% of the time, JJ or TT 40% of the time and AK 10% of the time. SB has a random PP or paired the board 75% of the time and hit is crummy straight 25% of the time. BB will call any PP but not AK. What's out EV?

BB wins 50% * -1 = -0.5
SB wins 25%*50% * -1 = -0.125
We win, BB and SB call 40%*75%*2= +0.6
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%*75%*1= +0.00075

Total EV = -0.02425

Marginally negative, thus check. Play with the assumptions if you think they should be different.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

I'd rather not raise the flop the first time than cap it. I especially hate any plan that involves folding anywhere if pf capper remains the only aggressor, the pot has just gotten too big for that. FWIW I've seen lines much stronger than this and still run into less than KK.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

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Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

He may have JJ with his 10-PFR, I say check it down.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

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Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

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pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

BB:
lose: AA (6), KK (6)
tie: QQ(1)
win: JJ(6 maybe count as 5 hands), TT (6, counted as 1 hand)

doesn't call
AsKs (1), maybe AsKx (0.5)

and now we have some random guy who clearly sucks ... can't really put him on a range but his hand count needs to compensate for the times BB is ahead (he'll need to payoff x amount of times greater than he wins)

so I think the maths would be something like this (not too sure though)

(-2)x(6+6) + (2)x(5+1) + (0)x(1) + (2)x(a-b)

where a is retard's payoff hands, and b is the times he is ahead
we would only put in one bb so I don't think it needs to get more complex that his

this reduces to
a &gt; 6 + b ... so this retard only needs 6 hands more to payoff than when is is ahead for us to consider betting the river given BB's hand range

<font color="green">please let me know if this calculation is out in left field ... conceptually</font>

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't an argument for making multiple raises postflop and it's certainly against putting in multiple raises and then folding the turn.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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but whatever our pfr is we can't say crap for villain here (we've all seen nutty things from what would appear to be normal decent players ... we don't know if this guy has any info on these two other guys - or who knows what. So, the possibility is there)

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't an argument for making multiple raises postflop and it's certainly against putting in multiple raises and then folding the turn.

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???????

i thought the whole question of the thread was if we should or shouldn't bet when checked to on the river ... what are you talking about?

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

Most of this thread in general and the discussion you replied to in particular were about the flop play.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most of this thread in general and the discussion you replied to in particular were about the flop play.

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??

there is like one thread about the turn? ... the only debate has been about if TT is in his range (I initially said maybe ... i think 1 hand out of 6 if fair)
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

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Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

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pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

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*Yawn* Large PFR does not mean large capping range. For most players, PFR goes up due to more iso-raising and value raising preflop. It rarely trickles all the way down to a large capping range.

I also don't cold cap TT from BB.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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I guarantee you that with a PFR of 10 TT and JJ or part of his capping range.

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My pfr is 13 and I never have TT here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine is usally around 12 and I don't have TT here either.

[/ QUOTE ]

pfft - you guys are teeni-weeny - I'm 13.1 (sometimes I can get it up to 14 with a little help [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) ...

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*Yawn* Large PFR does not mean large capping range. For most players, PFR goes up due to more iso-raising and value raising preflop. It rarely trickles all the way down to a large capping range.

I also don't cold cap TT from BB.

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] dude ... lighten up

your a math guy right?

what about the rest of what I said?
i'm not too sure about it

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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lol @ folding the turn

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yeah i agree i didnt even think about laying it down throughout the whole hand

let me be a little more specific about this question about betting the river. I was not particulary scared of gettin raised by betting this river by anyone but the SB. i knew i was either WA/WB in this entire hand and was wondering if on the river when i bet would i get called by hands worse than mine.

as far as capping the flop i dont think i can make this play because of the fact it accomplishes nothing being it wont iso or be of a whole lot of value in the long run. i know SB isnt gonna fold to a cold 2 after he has already proven to be able to Cold 2 once.

maybe a raise on the turn was in order instead of the flop i am not sure. but i think i would play this hand (up to the river) the same way every time but am not sure if it is correct.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
Marginally negative, thus check. Play with the assumptions if you think they should be different.

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You could also work with weighted combos, but I think your % are close. I do think A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could be weighted a lot more after the river check.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, say BB has AA or KK 50% of the time, JJ or TT 40% of the time and AK 10% of the time. SB has a random PP or paired the board 75% of the time and hit is crummy straight 25% of the time. BB will call any PP but not AK. What's out EV?

BB wins 50% * -1 = -0.5
SB wins 25%*50% * -1 = -0.125
We win, BB and SB call 40%*75%*2= +0.6
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%*75%*1= +0.00075

Total EV = -0.02425


[/ QUOTE ]

This math needs correcting. Those % are additive so:

BB Wins= -0.5
SB Wins= 0.25
These two can combine into 1 calc:
SB Wins or BB wins= 25%(-1) + 50%(-1) = -0.25 + -0.50 = -0.75

We win, BB and SB call 40%(1)+75%(1)= 1.15
We win, BB folds, SB calls 10%(0)+75(1)=0.75

Total EV = 1.15

There are also the chances SB or BB c/r and we fold(or call - that pot is huge) after betting
or chance that neither call. But, probably don’t affect the EV too much.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
This math needs correcting. Those % are additive

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No, they're not. SB doesn't only have a straight when BB doesn't have AA or KK. Original math stands.

My first label should perhaps have been "BB has AA or KK and wins or SB beats him 50%*-1=-0.5

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

Also Reaction, if you're losing $1 75% and winning $2 25% of the time (very best case scenario) then EV = -1*.75 + 2*.25 = -.25. So something is screwy with your math.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

I would consider capping the flop just to get another cappie from the converter [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Seriously, I think u played well and I would bet the river for value. Is he going for CR here with AA-KK? Or is he scared for the tiny straight? Both seems highly unlikley to me.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

Your Right. I miss understood. I blame:

Edited by Reaction (Fri Sep 07 2007 02:27 AM)

And my loc
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

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your a math guy right?

what about the rest of what I said?
i'm not too sure about it

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[ QUOTE ]
BB:
lose: AA (6), KK (6)
tie: QQ(1)
win: JJ(6 maybe count as 5 hands), TT (6, counted as 1 hand)

doesn't call
AsKs (1), maybe AsKx (0.5)

...

(-2)x(6+6) + (2)x(5+1) + (0)x(1) + (2)x(a-b)

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you measuring in small bets here?

In this situation, I think I would basically assume I have SB beat. He is reasonably likely to hold two spades given the action (something like JTs), so I don't think he's calling often. There are a few times he has a pair and couldn't get away, but they aren't too many. So I would essentially ignore his contribution.

The rest is fine if you're trying to figure out whether you should value bet (Positive = value bet).

And the *Yawn* wasn't directed at you. It was a general *Yawn* at the "Who caps TT preflop?" discussion.

Re: QQ Interesting River..Value in Bet
 

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are the bane of kittens everywhere. As limiting as only 50 hands is, I think plenty of 22/10/2.5s cap JJ, TT, AK pf here. SB may be [censored]. A lowball flop like this is perfectly inviting for a guy to 3bang with those pocket pair and with the Q of trump I make it 4 and see if our friend leads the turn. Fire on the river for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

His pf capping range is such a small piece of the puzzle it's hardly worth arguing about. The flop isn't perfectly inviting to 3ball vs. an EP pf raiser who got 3bet &amp; coldcapped from the blinds and is now raising a rags flop - what's he putting us on A6? Who the hell cares about a backdoor 3rd nut trump card? Villian is the kitty killer &amp; you're letting him off the hook by betting here.