NFL Thursday
 

Saints +6

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Thanks for the insight

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Sorry I don't do writeups...

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Easy U53 on this game for me. Overvalued offenses in this game creating a big line that is already moved high before release as the public as usual loads up on the overs in this situation. Line was released at 50.5 and is now at 53. probably in minority on this but don't care.

So as I said U53 1unit

Re: NFL Thursday
 

what makes you think these offense are overvalued?

If you'd said overvalued teams I'd be in agreement, but not because of the offenses

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Colts are not as much deep ball team as they once were and the public still pictures the colts of years past with lots of scoring quickly. It is not the way they are anymore. They still score but in much more managed controlled manner.

Colts and Saints are very time oriented pass offenses, which historically are slow starters in first game leading to larger amount of incompletions. Preseason doesn't fix this as speed of game is different between then and season just as in playoffs.

I also feel the Defenses are undervalued in this game. Both have made improvements over offseason. Saints are solid defense against the pass as are the Colts. Colts lost players to free agency but the difference maker Sanders is still there. Also feel Colts improved at Corner in terms of tackling ability which hurt them against the run last season.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

"Both have made improvements over offseason"

this just isnt true. not that i dont agree on the under but there is no way the colts D is better than it was.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Colts -255, 4u

There definitely isn't four units of value in this pick but I felt like a degenerate today, I would put 1-2 on the moneyline.

YTD: 4-1-0, +4.90u
CFB: 4-1-0, +4.90u
NFL: 0-0-0, +0.00u

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Colts are not as much deep ball team as they once were and the public still pictures the colts of years past with lots of scoring quickly. It is not the way they are anymore. They still score but in much more managed controlled manner.

Colts and Saints are very time oriented pass offenses, which historically are slow starters in first game leading to larger amount of incompletions. Preseason doesn't fix this as speed of game is different between then and season just as in playoffs.

I also feel the Defenses are undervalued in this game. Both have made improvements over offseason. Saints are solid defense against the pass as are the Colts. Colts lost players to free agency but the difference maker Sanders is still there. Also feel Colts improved at Corner in terms of tackling ability which hurt them against the run last season.

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The Colts have scored 24, 24, 26 points in week one games the last three years and that includes the Patriots and Ravens defenses.

I'm not sure where your basing this "new" Colts offense from. Maybe the Superbowl and the Ravens playoff game? Unless they are playing a team in a cover two shell they still put the ball down the field. The offense is the same one they have been running, it's just about Peyton's decisions on where to go with the ball and reading the defenses better.

The Saints pass defense has replaced Fred Thomas with Jason David. While David is an improvement (a one leg midget would have been) he has played mostly zone defenses in his career and is really just an average cover two corner. Last year they were able to get a good pass rush from their front four. I expect some regression from their defensive line this year.

The Colts lost half of their secondary in the offseason and their best run stopper in the preseason. I guess you can say that they added better tacklers, but I'm not sure how that effects their run defense as they were generally gashed through the middle. Also Kelvin Hayden made a nice pick in the Superbowl, but besides that he has never stood out to me.

The number does seem inflated, but I like the Colts -6 much better than I like the over or the under.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I teased Indy -.5 and Under 59 for 2u

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I'm not gonna bet this one

however, I'll make a prediction:

NO 24 IND 27

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Easy U53 on this game for me. Overvalued offenses in this game creating a big line that is already moved high before release as the public as usual loads up on the overs in this situation. Line was released at 50.5 and is now at 53. probably in minority on this but don't care.

So as I said U53 1unit

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If you haven't bet yet I'd wait, this line is going to keep going up the closer we get to gametime.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Reggie Bush longest run from scrimmage OVER 12.5 yards (-130)

Re: NFL Thursday
 

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I'm not gonna bet this one

however, I'll make a prediction:

NO 24 IND 27

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Everyone I ask is shockingly on NOS tonite. Very odd.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I think Indy will win this easily. The Saints offense makes this seem like it will be closer than it will be. The top AFC vs top NFC is -7, so with home field advantage I like Colts here at -6. Might be close at half, but look for the Colts to be dominate in the second half.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

mee too NAJ, seems like the public is on the Saints...isn't there a trend of the SB champion having a letdown in home openers? Public loves them trends...

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I was kinda looking to track my NFL picks this year, so I figured I'd post this here:

Indy/New Orleans under 53.5 (Risk 2.75u to win 2.5u)

Pretty basic fading the public stuff here. That's how I do 90% of my NFL picks anyway.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was kinda looking to track my NFL picks this year, so I figured I'd post this here:

Indy/New Orleans under 53.5 (Risk 2.75u to win 2.5u)

Pretty basic fading the public stuff here. That's how I do 90% of my NFL picks anyway.

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Yeah, my line is at 53 now, hoping to catch at least a hook, maybe 54 by kickoff. under under under

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I parlayed Colts -6 and the under (53) 50.00 to win like 128.00 or something...

Re: NFL Thursday
 

favorites and unders [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Thursday
 

starting to look at some props...

saints u24 +110 on bodog looks solid.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I don't know much about sports betting, but isn't it bad to bet the favorite minus the points AND the under?

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Indy will win this easily. The Saints offense makes this seem like it will be closer than it will be. The top AFC vs top NFC is -7, so with home field advantage I like Colts here at -6. Might be close at half, but look for the Colts to be dominate in the second half.

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I like Indy for the win but I expect a wide open first quarter possibly extending into the second before adjustments are made. You may see 21 points in the first quarter the way these two teams play. The key will be how well N.O. adjusts on defense and whether they try to pound Indy's run defense in hopes of keeping the ball out of Manning's paw for as long as possible.

I took N.O. but am staying away from O/U on this. First week and all that. Indy by 2 or 3.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I took NO +3.5 1H at -115.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I went big on Indy moneyline.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

To win 1 unit on each:

Colts -6 (-105)

Under 53.5

Colts PK & Under 59

Also have Colts PK in 3 other teasers/parlays

Re: NFL Thursday
 

saints +6 -110 at SIA seems like a very standard NFL +EV bet

i believe i heard last night the colts lost 5 starters on D from last year including their best player

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Party has a no vig bet.
Colts -217
Saints +217.
Is there any value here?
Edit: Typo

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Pudge, do you mean Colts -217 and Saints +217? If so, then Saints have some value, yes.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Going against last years SBowl winner in the opening week the following year was running a cover rate at about 68% a few years back.

Saints plus points should be an automatic trend play.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
To win 1 unit on each:

Colts -6 (-105)

Under 53.5

Colts PK & Under 59

Also have Colts PK in 3 other teasers/parlays

[/ QUOTE ]

3-0, +3 units YTD

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Saints offense put up a total of 3 points. That is just ugly.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Yeah for me and my fantasy football pool at work. Drew Brees is my starting QB while I passed on J Addai for Frank Gore. Addai goes down on that first play and then comes back to rock it out with his [censored] out.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Tried out exchange betting with small units, end results:

NO +5.5 risk 10u to win 10u = LOSE
NO +5.5 risk 1u to win 1.6u = LOSE
IND -5.5 risk 10u to win 12.4u = WIN
Profit = 1.4u - 3.29% Juice = +1.3594u

Re: NFL Thursday
 

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I don't know much about sports betting, but isn't it bad to bet the favorite minus the points AND the under?

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As a general rule of thumb you are correct.... this game was a bit odd in that regard, but the Colts and the under made sense.

Looks like some gamblas here made money tonite, maybe the Saints and Over players are remaining hidden.

FWIW.. I hit 1H under, Final under, and threw in a play on Cinci in CFB, which turned out to be a laugher. 3-0, + 4 units. Hooray.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

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I don't know much about sports betting, but isn't it bad to bet the favorite minus the points AND the under?

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As a general rule of thumb you are correct....

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Why?

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I don't know much about sports betting, but isn't it bad to bet the favorite minus the points AND the under?

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As a general rule of thumb you are correct....

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Why?

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Because every time the favorite scores, it helps cover the spread, but gets you closer to going over the total.

For instance...say tonite, you had Indy -6 and the under at 53.5 Once the Saints score 24, there is no way to do better than a split. When it was 10-10 at halftime... two TDs from NO in the second half didnt seem out of the question.

It is a rule of thumb as I said.... not etched in stone.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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I don't know much about sports betting, but isn't it bad to bet the favorite minus the points AND the under?

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As a general rule of thumb you are correct....

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

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Correlation.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

So if betting chalk/under is a bad idea, wouldn't it follow the betting dog/over is a good idea?

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
So if betting chalk/under is a bad idea, wouldn't it follow the betting dog/over is a good idea?

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No, thats the same idea.