10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

Villain is a 2+2er , used to think he spewed a lot.. but my perception has changed fairly significantly in the past few motnhs.

Is the river raise too much?
What SHOULD be each of our thoguht process on the other guys range up to this point of the hand?

I am capable of capping pair + diamond + straight draw in some situations (maybe not this).

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (11BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font> ...

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I think it's fine.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

"What SHOULD be each of our thoguht process on the other guys range up to this point of the hand?"

sb's preflop raise: you think "lol"
your preflop call: sb thinks "lol"
sb's flop bet: you think "lol"
your flop call: sb thinks "lol"
sb's turn bet: you think "lol"
your turn raise: sb thinks "he probably doesn't have a flush because he didn't raise the flop. he could have Jx, 9x, QT, T7, ace or king of diamonds, and maybe just a ten"
sb's turn 3-bet: you think "it is not terribly likely for him to be pure bluffing because there is a good chance i have a good hand like Jx or a straight or two pair. he probably has KJ+, a set, a flush, two pair, or a straight."
your turn cap: sb thinks "ok he has to be for real. he has a straight with QT/T7 or a flush."
sb's river bet: you think "he doesn't care that i have T7 minimum. his river bet is weird because he should mostly check after i cap the turn. maybe he is afraid i'm going to check something behind on the ace for some reason. he is wrong though, so i am confused. maybe he has AdA."

i think you should call the river bet. i don't think he should bet the river usually.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

call the river

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

riase the river. Are you aware that you have 5 cards of the same suit? AND that two of them are in your hand?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
call the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely. This is a spew. He saved you a bet by not going for a river CR.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

Yeah, his range includes about 25 different flushes. All of them make sense til the river. A lot of them bet the river either hoping to 3-bet or not wanting to get 3-bet.

I don't see him showing up with enough sets/str8s to beat that range, let alone be the significant fav you need to be to raise.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

in LHE it really doesn't matter what you do when you have a 5 card hand.

seriously.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
in LHE it really doesn't matter what you do when you have a 5 card hand.

seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

wha?? plz to be explaining. this is either extremly deep or makes no sense at all :P

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

edit: bah, n/m....I suck at teh counting

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, his range includes about 25 different flushes. All of them make sense til the river. A lot of them bet the river either hoping to 3-bet or not wanting to get 3-bet.

I don't see him showing up with enough sets/str8s to beat that range, let alone be the significant fav you need to be to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... Thanks costa, you helped me come to a realization.

In tighter range scenarios two card straights dominate other likelyhoods (16 combinations) so I often percieve them as the most likely mathematically speaking.

In tighter range scenarios theres often only like 1-7 possible flush combinations.

However, because its a blind battle, his PF range is HUGE so the flush combinations actually outweigh a lot of straight combinations. 25-27 flush combinations were much more than I realized once I counted it all out..

When comparing likelyhoods in blind battles and a 3-flush is out... I have to give a lot more credit to a flush possibility if I cant narrow down there range from action on a previous street (IE just calling a continuation bet).

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I'm the villain here, right? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am capable of capping pair + diamond + straight draw in some situations (maybe not this).

[/ QUOTE ]

why not here?

i guess the answer to that question is the reason u shouldnt raise river

*

Another question that isnt about this hand: When u cap toppair or a draw on turn against a non-retard player. Have the other guy ever folded before showdown? Have u ever been ahead when u capped?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

My thought process is the flop and turn make a bunch of good hands however I think your flush is ahead of most. I think the villon will 3 bet turn with any 2 pair any top pair with ace of diamonds any straight maybe even top pair openended with a flush draw like 9 10 with 10 of diamonds or even an overpair. In blind battles people go a little crazy. Also, he might put you on top pair with ace of diamond redraw. Hence, the river donk. I am raise calling this river, if he has 2 of the remaining 8 diamonds in the deck in his hand, nice hand sir... JMO My guess is he ends up with Ad j and donked his two pair.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am raise calling this river, if he has 2 of the remaining 8 diamonds in the deck in his hand, nice hand sir... JMO My guess is he ends up with Ad j and donked his two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


I am putting Ad J in his range too of course. But I'm curious about the 'raise-calling this river' part.
What on earth is a sane player going to be 3-betting the river with? Is this guy really so lag that he 3-bets the river without the flush?

In other words: I'm not confident a river-raise is such a hot idea here to begin with...but if you're going to do it isn't it better if you are okay with a raise-fold line?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I don't think folding a flush in a blind battle in crazy 6 handed games is ever +EV in the long run. I see more crazy river raises in blind battles with middle pair or bottom two or busted draws that I will take the raise call line here every time unless I have a real strong read on an opponent to only call.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

Of course you see crazy river raises in blind battles.
But this was a capped turn on a 3-flush board against a fellow 2+2'er.
If you have a read on this particular 2+2'er that he is capable of that crazy a 3-bet bluff then go ahead and call him down.

Obviously if he has the nuts, which is possible here, then you are just happily spewing 2 extra bets his way with the worst hand every single time.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I would call the river. If I was SB, I would almost always check the river to c/c or cr. I think it's usually a mistake for SB to bet here.
Do you usually play the flop like this, i.e call and pop the turn? Would you have popped the turn UI?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
call the river

[/ QUOTE ]


right, because if you get 3bet, you are buring 1BB everytime you call that river 3bet.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

if its me, your in serious trouble...