Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Ok, well, there's been more than a few rumblings and exhortations about whether I am going to do Wong Teasers again this year, and the answer is yes. I'd be stupid not to. Let's take a quick look at last year's final stats;

NFL 2006-2007 season Final Totals:
Teased Games: 60-9 (86.96%)
2 Team Teases: 78-25 (75.73%)
3 Team teases: 5-0 (100%)
4 Team Teases: 7-1 (87.5%%)
+21798


Last year, on this very bulletin board, I led many of you on a grand odyssey where not only was there likely more information disseminated on the subject of Wong Teases than ANYWHERE ELSE, ( and most of the good stuff NOT by your truly), but I also posted what, near as I can tell, is the best-ever win % on even-money type bets with over 100 trials, ( I looked around lots, never found better. If you can, please share). I am looking forward to this year wholeheartedly, but in regards to last year;





Fuggheddabboudit.

It's not hapenning again.


Being the "wong Messiah" is fun, don't get me wrong, but last year, I was VERY lucky.


So don;t expect NEAR the same return this year. We could also easily LOSE $$$. These are NOT sure things.

But what they ARE is the simplest, most-straight forward way to make +EV bets you will ever see in your lifetime.

I'm no sports-betting expert. I read a lot, and stood on the shoulders of giants at the teller window, that's all. But I had a great time doing it, and since I have a certain name recognition with these now, I will be more than happy to once again offer up my picks to the consensus.


As it stands, I need to iron out details once again with my book, but he currently only has two true Wong games up. This will likely change as the season goes on. When I get more info, I will post my picks.

Those of you that have questions would do well to look in the FAQ thread at some of my threads from last year, as the information therein is legion and impressive.


HERE'S TO A NEW YEAR OF RELATIVELY MINDLESS +EV BETTING!
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y19...tor3135408.jpg

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

I'm following...

Is going from +3 to +9 considered a wong?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Welcome back Dali. Lets have a year that makes last years winnings look like nothing!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Oh yeah. 5Dimes is the only site I have found offering 1:1 on two teamers. How bad does the 11:10 screw with the EV of these bets?

Almost all the games which are on a 3 are being teased from 2.5 on 5Dimes. Those bastards.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm following...

Is going from +3 to +9 considered a wong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Half wong, and I only do them with extenuating circumstances, ( home team, high neg, etc)

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Yeah the only 2 true Wongs are the Detroit/Oakland and Baltimore/Cincy game with Pinny lines.

I like the +3 teams of Buffalo and Green Bay a little bit.

Gonna be hard to do these only since most sites have shiatty odds on them this year.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

according to gambling 102 book a 2 team wong teaser at -110 still has a 3.19% player advantage (using data from 1983 to 2004) which is still pretty good

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Too tired to run the numbers on the value or loss of value from teasing a # from +3 to +9 as opposed to +2.5 to +8.5. Anyone have that info laying around?

Roughly 37% of reg season games are won by 3-7 points and another 4.5% by 8 or 9.

3 pts 16.1%
4 4.7%
5 2.9%
6 5.7%
7 9.8%
8 3.2%
9 1.2%

Those are close rounded estimates for margin of victory.
So I am trying to figure out if teasing all those bad 2.5 lines on 5Dimes at +100 2 team odds is worthwild or not. We don't lose much landing on 8.5 instead of 9.

-Brendan

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Why are there only 2 true Wongs? I thought +2.5 for dog is good to tease in a Wong? 5Dimes has a boatload of games where there is a 2.5 dog.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Chiefs
Bills
Packers
Falcons
Dolphins
Cardinals

are all +2.5 - +3.5 dogs which should be Wongable. Is that correct?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Yeah I'm confused now...Daliman what do you consider a "true" Wong?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

As mentioned in numerous other threads 5-dimes fiddle with their lines, thus those aren't 'true' Wongs.
Nearly all of 5dimes +2.5 dogs is at +110 where all other books has them at +3.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

1.5-2.5 point underdogs
7.5-8.5 point favorites

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

yeah....5dimes is scamming guys into placing bad wongs
They are buying off the 3 for you and then putting it into a wong
Basically, you're getting 5.5 off a 3 point spread instead of 6 off a 2.5

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Bodog has a couple of +3 -125 lines. I don't know the math, but I would think these are +EV teases since you're getting a free half point or so.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

My book is only showing 2 wongable games as well...maybe the lines will move late in the week but I don't know.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

JasonK not sure about those since Bodog is 11:10 odds not 1:1 on the 2 teamer.

Also remember with how 5Dimes is taking these off the 3, they are the same then as buying 6.5 at 11:10 on 5Dimes making these the same plays at any other site with them already on the 3. Annoying that 5Dimes does this.

-Brendan

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]



Oh yeah. 5Dimes is the only site I have found offering 1:1 on two teamers. How bad does the 11:10 screw with the EV of these bets?



[/ QUOTE ]

You need to cover 72.4% of the time to break even at -110. Crossing the 3 and 7 resulted in covering 76% of the time according to SSB, so it should still be +EV.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Thanks Chaz, how often do these need to hit to break even at +100?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Chaz, how often do these need to hit to break even at +100?

[/ QUOTE ]

0.707^2 = 0.5, so 70.7% for two teams.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Carolina has crept to +1.5 at Bodog, wonder if we'll see this at other books soon.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

there are some misconceptions here..

all things being equal: teasing +1/-7 team 6pts >> teasing +3/-9 teams 6 pts. this is b/c picking up only half of 7 (losing approx 14 cents) is far better than picking up half of 3 (losing approx 22 cents)

however observe the phrase "everything else being equal" carefully.. there are certainly outliers to this rule, for instance: teasing +3 -130 by 6 >> teasing +1/-7 -110 by 6. this is b/c while picking up only half of the 3 loses 22 cents on average, you're saving 20 cents on the vig..

finally, "ties no action" teasers are worth far more in situations where you're teasing to +7/-3 than in situations when you're teasing to -1/+9.. the reasoning can be solved by inspection

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

So Carolina +7 1/2 / Lions +7 1/2 -110 is a +EV Wong Teaser, correct?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
So Carolina +7 1/2 / Lions +7 1/2 -110 is a +EV Wong Teaser, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Thanks for the posts, I've learned a ton. Two questions...as I look at my sportsbook (WSEX which no one on here seems to use so maybe I should switch) I only see one Wong-able line. (BAL/CIN)

1. Is this normal for a given week?
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

you can tease detroit/carolina on bodog

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the posts, I've learned a ton. Two questions...as I look at my sportsbook (WSEX which no one on here seems to use so maybe I should switch) I only see one Wong-able line. (BAL/CIN)

1. Is this normal for a given week?
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wsex is a good book, keep it.
Yes, Wongs completely vary by week. Can be none/1 or 6.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Anyone know of a site where I could punch in parameters such as years and spreads in the NFL and it would spit out the results accordingly?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
Too tired to run the numbers on the value or loss of value from teasing a # from +3 to +9 as opposed to +2.5 to +8.5. Anyone have that info laying around?

Roughly 37% of reg season games are won by 3-7 points and another 4.5% by 8 or 9.

3 pts 16.1%
4 4.7%
5 2.9%
6 5.7%
7 9.8%
8 3.2%
9 1.2%

Those are close rounded estimates for margin of victory.
So I am trying to figure out if teasing all those bad 2.5 lines on 5Dimes at +100 2 team odds is worthwild or not. We don't lose much landing on 8.5 instead of 9.

-Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that 3-pt fig including 1- and 2-pt wins as well? If not, you got the figs please for 1- and 2-pt wins? Thanks,

fifield

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

1pt 3.9%
2pts 3.6%

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
2. Also, do any books offer the 2-team tease at even money (other than the 5-dimes tricky lines) or is that a completely dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a complete Noob on Sports Betting, but don't the books in Vegas offer even money on two team teasers? Is there a previous thread about what odds needed for +EV on teasers of three or more, or are they pretty much standard?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am a complete Noob on Sports Betting, but don't the books in Vegas offer even money on two team teasers? Is there a previous thread about what odds needed for +EV on teasers of three or more, or are they pretty much standard?

[/ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=11955704

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

I'm new to these Wong Teasers can someone explain?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Would Detroit +1.5 and Baltimore +2.5 be a Wongable Teaser?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
Would Detroit +1.5 and Baltimore +2.5 be a Wongable Teaser?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. As posted earlier:

1.5-2.5 point underdogs
7.5-8.5 point favorites

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Can someone tell me why wongs are bad in college football?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Key to Wong in NFL is that you tease through 3 & 7 - two key numbers. The 3 is less important in college football.

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Why does it matter? If the line at 5dimes is +2.5 and you tease it 6 points, it still crosses the 3 and 7 making it a Wong. What am I missing? The point is to cross a 3 and 7 which a +2.5 line does, right?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

The Bills and Chiefs are both at +3 right now at 5 dimes. Why aren't they Wongable games?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why does it matter? If the line at 5dimes is +2.5 and you tease it 6 points, it still crosses the 3 and 7 making it a Wong. What am I missing? The point is to cross a 3 and 7 which a +2.5 line does, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose a book offered you a line of Indy -7.5 tonight. You can tease it 6 points across the 3 and 7. Would you still consider that game part of a +EV teaser?

Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux
 

Is it +EV if I'm getting -110 on my Wong teasers? I searched through a bunch of old posts on Wong teasers and I found a post from Performify that leads me to believe that although not ideal, -110 should be OK but I'm still not sure.

Is this correct or should I start looking for a new sportsbook?

Thanks for your help.