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pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
Hi guys,
my green line in pokerev sucks which means im not winning very much without seeing showdown. which makes sense, because ive been nitting it up these days, trying to avoid marginal spots, etc. but im not winning nearly as much as I used to, which is obv partly because of the games, but supposedly im a better player now too. a lot of it is surely variance, but... i wonder if its because im leaving lots of money on the table by checking down too much? I'd really like to see a bunch of these graphs from a variety of different styles, I think there's a lot to be learned from them that is not really discussable by a single hand in a vaccuum, but more applies to how we play in hand to hand tiny pots. stuff that is not hand oriented, but frequency oriented. PokerEV seems like a good analysis tool for this problem. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
where do we get this tool?
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
whoa wtf cs
carrotsnake, not cs |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
? wtf @ what ? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
is that graph the "run like god + play like god"?
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
and just to clarify, i was asking where we get the tool that makes the green line run $40k higher than the red line
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
I have no idea what this graph means, thats why I posted it, I downloaded the software earlier today on a whim. So ... no idea
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
can't figure out a graph that 3rd graders could but people think you play like god. Must be nice.
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what this graph means, thats why I posted it, I downloaded the software earlier today on a whim. So ... no idea [/ QUOTE ] The green line is like, way below the other lines on every other graph. You play good. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
lol carrot runs goooooood
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
I think you guys are misinformed by the PokerEV. Total winnings= total winnings that you win from poker period.
And Total expected winnings are the only ones when you are all-in and there is a showdown. Thus you can't really compare the two? Even if that's not the case, there is for sure a problem with us reading/understanding PokerEv's graphs. My stance on it is just an excuse to play bad and blame variance. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
Doesn't the $15,000 difference between the blue and red basically mean constantly sucking out after the money goes in? Don't use the software, just the impression I get from everybody whining with red above blue.
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
No that's the difference between the blue and red lines I think. So at showdown he has had X equity (6Kish..) but actually lost 10K which means he is running bad for 16Kish about I think. I think the totl winning means he forces people off the best hand a lot, and wins a large amount of pots without a showdown, which makes sense, cause he has only 6K of equity from getting to showdown.
Basically my interpretation of carrotsnakes graph is he wins a lot of small pots and bullies people off hands, but when he is called he does worse than other people would. Not sure if this is correct actually and would like input. I have never had the green line above the red, and I have only seen one graph where someone was running above equity (red vs blue) Over the last 50K hands I was down approx 45 buyins in sklansky bucks, and that seems standard. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
more graphs please!
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you guys are misinformed by the PokerEV. Total winnings= total winnings that you win from poker period. [/ QUOTE ] Correct. [ QUOTE ] And Total expected winnings are the only ones when you are all-in and there is a showdown. Thus you can't really compare the two? [/ QUOTE ] No, they can certainly be compared. Most people who post pokerEV graphs have a green line way below red/blue, except for kotkis, ahnuld, and a few other MSNLers, and it would seem, carrotsnake. think of of this way.. a poor nitty player (winner) loses $ w/o showdown, but the magnitude of showdown winnings makes them a winner. (green positive, but below red/blue) A reasonable player wins/loses an equal amount w/o showdown - greeen = red/blue. A postflop monster wins tgreatly w/o showdown, resulting in +EV even when taking the worst of it... carrotsnake, kotkis, ahnuld et.al. (green above red/blue) [ QUOTE ] Even if that's not the case, there is for sure a problem with us reading/understanding PokerEv's graphs. My stance on it is just an excuse to play bad and blame variance. [/ QUOTE ] Not the case, but I'm sure many will use it as such (OMG look how bad I run etc.). In carrotsnake's graph, maybe a possible beat... difference between red/blue is the amount you have run bad/good. So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] EDITED TO ADD: If Carrot played nittly like I (and I assume many other marginal SSNLers do), he would have been barely break even / slight loser over this sample.. as is... WOW! dave. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
I believe sklansky bucks are generally your adjusted equity. So if you have 40% equity when all the money goes in for a $1000 pot then you would have 'earned' $400 sklansky bucks. And the showdown winnings are the actual result, so if you go all in with 40% equity in a $1000 pot and lose then you'd have a total of $400 sklansky bucks/red and $0 showdown winnings/blue? That would mean:
blue above red = sucking out blue below red = getting sucked out on blue = red = running at expectation |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
guys, I'm definately running above expectations in those graphs :/
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
These graphs are soo [censored] lame, they don't mean jacksh*t. All they are is a very small comfort when running bad imo.
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
a negative red line from a very aggressive player probably means you semibluff a LOT. which also explains a green line above the others. you win pots w/o showdown all the time from fold equity, and the few times you get called, you have the worst of it.
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Win or loss on a coinflip has no effect on the "sklansky bucks" (red line), only on the blue (and in turn, the green) In fact, 52/48 flips AIPF etc will barely cause a blip on the red line, but can have dramatic effects on the other two - I presume from the, you have run very well recently in such situations, resulting in the large divergence between red/blue. Still, much more interesting is how you can play so hard as to get the green way above the others... nits like me can never produce graphs like that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] dave. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
These graphs are soo [censored] lame, they don't mean jacksh*t. All they are is a very small comfort when running bad imo. [/ QUOTE ] WRONG |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
more graphs please! [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I am rather confused. Carrot's showdown equity is about -10k, and yet his showdown winnings are +5k. Doesn't this mean that he has run +15k ABOVE expectations? Clearly the fact that this equity is negative and yet his actual winnings are well above 0 (even if you subtract the 15k from his excessive sucking out) suggests that he wins a lot of money by getting other folks to fold the best hand and as a consequence when he does get called he has the worst of it more often than not. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
by the way, the term sucked out on is not correct, a lot of those "skalanky bucks" come from winning a few coinflips AI preflop like AK/JJ where I have technically 900ish in equity at 5/10 if I get it in, so I have 900 bucks if I lose and -1100 if I win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, had not considered that. Definitely poor phrasing on my part. Just running above expectation, but far enough above to make me jealous and still want to call it sucking out! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
dave,
from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run. if over a reasonable sample your green line is lower, it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly. very strong postflop players should be able to have a higher VPIP and show a profit. This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
dave, from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run. if over a reasonable sample your green line is lower, it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly. very strong postflop players should be able to have a higher VPIP and show a profit. This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines. [/ QUOTE ] At MSNL people can fold, and also generally play much more aggressively forcing you to fold more often. At SSNL people fold less often and they're much more passive in general meaning you're going to showdown way more often so your green is going to be much closer to your blue. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
some of this red line stuff makes a lot of sense to me.
my HU graph from the month the red line is barely positive over 6k hands even though i'm up 13 buyins [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] also think i'm running well cause the blue line is significantly higher than the red. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
Rephrasing what I earlier posted regarding differences between green/blue:
Taking it to an extreme, if you were facing an opponent who called every single hand all the way to the showdown then it would be impossible for your green to ever be above your blue - they would be identical. Similarly, if he folded every single hand then your green would be way above your blue. So the more passive your average villain is, the less the difference between the green and blue will be. The more aggressive your average villain is, the greater the difference between the green and blue will be. Which is identical to saying that the higher the stakes the greater the normal differences between green and blue will be. I'm also of the opinion that these graphs are completely useless, but it's fun to analyze them anyhow. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
Taking it to an extreme, if you were facing an opponent who called every single hand all the way to the showdown then it would be impossible for your green to ever be above your blue - they would be identical. Similarly, if he folded every single hand then your green would be way above your blue. [/ QUOTE ] what is a circumstance where the green is below the blue, other than we suck at playing pots that don't go to showdown? |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
from my current understanding, there is no reason for the green line to ever go below the red line, in the long run. [/ QUOTE ] There is many a good reason... you touch on a couple yourself: [ QUOTE ] it means your VPIP is too high, or you are playing mediocre weak hands poorly. [/ QUOTE ] Others are playing fit/fold, or getting bullied off winning nono-nut hands by superior hand readers. [ QUOTE ] This theory fits why lots of strong MSNL posters have such high green lines. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed. And herein lies one of the many values of this program - it shows a measure of postflop skill, the like of which grapher/patterns can not possibly do... which is why I am so surprised at the hate directed towards these graphs from many posters. Personally, a graph like Carrotsnake's above, or kotkis in BBV, is much more impressive (to me) than someone luckboxing a big win and posting pokergrapher pics. I expect many SSNLers (myself included) have green lines well below red/blue - Nuggets above is one - and they are commonplace in uNL forum - these indicate postflop could be improved, I think - although it could also be a symptom of limp/call/fit/fold etc. One need to employ the filters to narrow it down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] dave. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] more graphs please! [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
This is what a nit's August graph would look like.
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/9...pokerevyu8.jpg |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
that looks like the variance is all sorted out, someone explain why red != blue
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So Carrot is running ~15K below expectation when all in - yet turns a serious profit due winning without showdown... I'd love to learn how to do that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I am rather confused. Carrot's showdown equity is about -10k, and yet his showdown winnings are +5k. Doesn't this mean that he has run +15k ABOVE expectations? Clearly the fact that this equity is negative and yet his actual winnings are well above 0 (even if you subtract the 15k from his excessive sucking out) suggests that he wins a lot of money by getting other folks to fold the best hand and as a consequence when he does get called he has the worst of it more often than not. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, Whoops I messed that up (and I edited, but still didn't spot my massive errors [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ) I mean, Carrot is running +15K above expectation, which would be sweet in itself - running at expectation he would have lost $$$ but his won$w/oSD makes up for it and then some. I got my words muddled, but I was thinking even if Carrot's showdown luck was reversed - he would still have had a profitable 40K hands, thanks to winning $ w/o showdown. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
I expect many SSNLers (myself included) have green lines well below red/blue - Nuggets above is one - and they are commonplace in uNL forum - these indicate postflop could be improved, I think - although it could also be a symptom of limp/call/fit/fold etc. One need to employ the filters to narrow it down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This is definitely incorrect for the reasons mentioned above. Get any strong player to go play a $5 NL table. His green is going to be EXTREMELY close to his blue. Doesn't matter if he's the best postflop player in the world. The vast majority of his hands will end up with a showdown and that means green's going to be close to blue. This is a symptom of the average villain's passivity, not a player's skill or lack thereof. |
Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
dire, i think it's a measure of both.
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Re: pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]
[ QUOTE ]
that looks like the variance is all sorted out, someone explain why red != blue [/ QUOTE ] A good nit gets paid way more than equity on his nuts hands? Still, folding too much = green below others.. steal more? |
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