Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Hey everyone,
This thread will be for September MLB and is a continuation of my other thread found here: Thread

All of my picks are based off of statistical analysis of the hitters and pitchers. I do not pay attention to hot streaks, trends, when a team is "due" or anything of that nature.

I encourage questions and comments in the thread, it shows that I'm not completely wasting my time by posting my picks.

My model is based a lot off of Michael Murray's Book, Betting Baseball 2007, but in my opinion he has an imperfect way of determining power ratings for teams, so I am using a different variation of it. I also use different statistics to compute the pitching strength of the starting pitchers.

All of my lines will come off of Betjm, 5Dimes, or Bodog because they are widely available to all and as of now they are the only places where I have accounts and they also offer XML line feeds.

Picks will be posted on my website, www.puresabermetrics.com first.

I will then post the picks in this thread later that night so I'm not making 3 or 4 posts with plays in it.
I have incorporated a small amount of line shopping into my spreadsheet with BetJM and 5Dimes so I will show where I found the line on my website only (I don't want to worry about the forum rules and all that crap in this thread). The main problem here being that Betjm puts lines up around 12pm PST and 5Dimes much later, so I imagine that most of the lines will be from BetJM.

I will post results of the day daily and keep YTD statistics. I started publicly posting around the All-Star break, so any big up or down day greatly influences the ROI.

Current Record:
July: 58-63-1 (+3.26 units; ROI: 2.20%)
Aug: 49-63-0 (-15.58 units; ROI: -9.20%)
YTD: 110-128-1 (-12.24 units; ROI: -3.76%)

Follow these picks at your own risk.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday MLB
Houston Astros +160 for Game
Texas Rangers +240 for Game
San Francisco Giants +106 for Game (1.5)
Cincinnati Reds +195 for 1st 5 Innings
Baltimore Orioles +175 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Texas Rangers +225 for 1st 5 Innings [5Dimes]

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday Results
2-4-0 (-0.85 units)

Texas in the 9th almost gave me a heart attack.
Too bad on Cincinnati.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday MLB
Florida Marlins +112 for Game (2)
Cincinnati Reds +128 for Game (2)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +265 for Game (1.5)
Minnesota Twins -107 for Game (2)
Baltimore Orioles +150 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Chicago White Sox +178 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +255 for 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds +120 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday Results
3-3-2 (+2.74 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday MLB
San Francisco Giants +130 for Game
Atlanta Braves +101 for Game (1.5)
New York Mets +115 for Game (2.5)
Oakland Athletics +146 for Game

The NYM play is actually a 3.5 unit play, but I scaled it back because Pedro Martinez is coming off of the DL and they are planning on limiting his pitching time.

Minnesota Twins -125 for Game
Baltimore Orioles +164 for Game (1.5)
Oakland Athletics +130 for 1st 5 Innings
Pittsburgh Pirates +115 for 1st 5 Innings (2)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Picks will be up late tonight. Power outage has my site down and all sorts of good stuff.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday Results
3-5-0 (+0.94 units)

Site (www.PureSabermetrics.com) is up and running again.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday MLB
Toronto Blue Jays +133 for Game (1.5)
Seattle Mariners +230 for Game (1.5)
Florida Marlins +112 for Game (1.5)
San Francisco Giants -112 for Game (3)
Chicago White Sox +168 for 1st 5 Innings
Florida Marlins +108 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday Results
2-4-0 (-5.10 units)
I cannot believe today. Got absolutely worked by the bullpens. I can’t believe how horrible the bullpens were today. Can’t believe it…

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Wednesday MLB
Oakland Athletics +148 for Game
Atlanta Braves -153 for Game
Boston Red Sox -139 for Game
Florida Marlins +100 for 1st 5 Innings
Pittsburgh Pirates +147 for Game (1.5)
Oakland Athletics +148 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Wednesday Results
4-2-0 (+3.78 units)

No plays for Thursday as of now.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Thursday MLB
Baltimore Orioles +145 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Thursday Results
0-0-1 (+0.00 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Friday MLB
New York Mets -146 for Game (2)
Kansas City Royals +145 for Game (4)
San Francisco Giants +124 for Game (2)
Baltimore Orioles +111 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

2-2-0 (-1.02 units)
Ahhh…so close on KC.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday MLB
Arizona Diamondbacks +100 for Game (2)
San Diego Padres +120 for Game (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday Results
2-0-0 (+3.80 units)

Week Results
16-16-3 (+5.14 units; ROI: 9.50%)

YTD Results
128-148-4 (-7.95 units; ROI: -2.05%)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday MLB
New York Mets -128 for Game (2)
San Francisco Giants +112 for Game (1.5)
Kansas City Royals +174 for Game (1.5)
Florida Marlins +132 for Game (2.5)
Milwaukee Brewers -159 for Game (2)
Washington Nationals +134 for Game
Baltimore Orioles +165 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday Results
4-3-0 (+2.02 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday MLB
Toronto Blue Jays -105 for Game (2)
San Francisco Giants -136 for Game (3)
Florida Marlins -105 for Game (2)
Cleveland Indians -165 (2)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday Results
1-3-0 (-6.28 units)
I hate bullpens.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday MLB
Cincinnati Reds +100 for Game
Texas Rangers GM1 +152 for Game (3)
Texas Rangers GM2 +147 for Game (1.5)
Houston Astros +113 for Game
Chicago White Sox +135 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +180 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Cincinnati Reds -109 for 1st 5 Innings
Atlanta Braves +145 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday Results
6-1-1 (+11.24 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Wednesday MLB
New York Yankees +101 for Game
Baltimore Orioles +154 for Game
Atlanta Braves +103 for Game
Milwaukee Brewers +126 for Game
Texas Rangers +205 for Game (1.5)
St Louis Cardinals +138 for Game (1.5)
Baltimore Orioles +145 for 1st 5 Innings
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +178 for 1st 5 Innings
Atlanta Braves -107 for 1st 5 Innings
New York Yankees +102 for 1st 5 Innings
San Francisco Giants +150 for Game

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Thursday Results
3-8-0 (-5.26 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Thursday MLB
Toronto Blue Jays -105 for Game (5)
Philadelphia Phillies +114 for Game

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Thursday Results
2-0-0 (+6.14 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Friday MLB
Seattle Mariners -133 for Game (1.5)
Chicago White Sox +131 for Game (.5)
Minnesota Twins +100 for Game
Boston Red Sox -102 for Game (2)
San Francisco Giants +153 for Game
Florida Marlins +127 for Game (2.5)
Baltimore Orioles +160 for 1st 5 Innings
Arizona Diamondbacks +145 for 1st 5 Innings
Atlanta Braves -137 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Friday Results
4-4-1 (+1.26 units)
Bullpens from Boston and SF killed what would have been a really nice day (I mean a +7 unit day).

On a good note, at least I finished up for the day and I'm now in +ROI since I started.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday MLB
Florida Marlins +152 for Game (1.5)
Minnesota Twins -1½ +115 for Game
Minnesota Twins -187 for Game (2)
Texas Rangers +147 for Game (1.5)
Boston Red Sox +120 for Game (2)
Washington Nationals -102 for Game
Pittsburgh Pirates +139 for Game (2)
Chicago Cubs GM1 -103 for Game (2)
New York Mets -155 for Game (2)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -120 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Baltimore Orioles +210 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
Florida Marlins +139 for 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds +150 for 1st 5 Innings
New York Mets -150 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday Results
7-7-0 (-1.77 units)

Week Results
27-26-2 (+7.35 units; ROI: 8.20%)

September Results
45-46-5 (+11.64 units; ROI: 7.70%)

YTD Results
155-174-6 (-0.60 units; ROI: -0.13%)

YTD 5in Results
18-13-5 (+15.46 units; ROI: 38.98%)
The sample size may be very small, but so far the 5in lines have been keeping me afloat.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday MLB
Minnesota Twins -113 for Game
San Francisco Giants +166 for Game
Florida Marlins +148 for Game (2.5)
Philadelphia Phillies +159 for Game (1.5)
Cincinnati Reds +157 for Game (1.5)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +140 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
Baltimore Orioles +180 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
San Francisco Giants +170 for 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds +150 for 1st 5 Innings (.5)
Philadelphia Phillies +150 for 1st 5 Innings (.5)
Texas Rangers +124 for Game (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday Results
3-7-1 (-2.79 units)

I may switch to 5in lines only from now on. I haven't decided yet...

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday MLB
St Louis Cardinals +115 for Game (4)
Minnesota Twins -117 for Game (2.5)
Milwaukee Brewers -143 for Game (2)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +205 for 1st 5 Innings
Baltimore Orioles +205 for 1st 5 Innings (2)

Added Play
Florida Marlins +200 for Game

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

I will probably not make any picks until the morning from now on so I can get both 5in and game lines. This means that we will miss out on the overnight reduced juice from 5dimes.

Or if someone can tell me where US customers can get 5in overnight lines then I will be able to post as usual.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Added Play
San Francisco Giants +200 for Game (2)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday Results
3-4-0 (+0.50 units)

Despite losing my 4 unit play, still ended up a little. Not too shabby.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday MLB
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +210 for 1st 5 Innings
Los Angeles Dodgers +102 for Game (Wells vs Redman)
St Louis Cardinals +146 for Game
Washington Nationals +162 for Game
Kansas City Royals -133 for Game (1.5)
Cleveland Indians +120 for Game (2.5)
San Francisco Giants +150 for Game (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

I'm on TB today, as well, except for full game (+215). Hate doing it, but I think there's value in the line...