drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

villain in this hand has peeled the flop before with drawless undercards and checked the turn and river UI.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.60
CO: $34.80
Button: $19.35
Guruman: $26.85
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Guruman is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $2.25</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $9</font>, Guruman...

so I should be repping a pair most of the time with this line, but button's raise signals that he's committing himself here. I clearly can't continue unless I have fold equity on a push because I don't have immediate odds to draw to the flush. Also, villain could be making a play with a worse flush draw.

Easy fold?

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

Fold pf. If you decide to rr, rr much more, to $3.5. Nobody folds to a miniraise. Once you rr, this about as good a flop as you could hope for and this is a really easy 3bet ai.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

what's his range here that makes this such an easy push?

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

RR pf is fine. I think you fold flop.


Edit - yeah you need to rr more pf, but rr'ing is fine.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

[ QUOTE ]
what's his range here that makes this such an easy push?

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Because of all the dead money you have so generously donated to the pot already, your equity when called needs to be 36% to break even and you have the nfd so you are more then priced in to get it in asap. Unless you think his range is sets and sets only, but that is a bit unlikely don´t you think? Vs hands like KQ and KK you are flipping and every once in a while he has a worse draw or even folds to your push. I happens.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

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you are more then priced in to get it in asap.

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Let's see your maths here.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are more then priced in to get it in asap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see your maths here.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against.

Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point?

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are more then priced in to get it in asap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see your maths here.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against.

Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point?

[/ QUOTE ]


and the math?

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

After button's flop bet the pot is $12.75 and button has
got about $7 left.

This means I have no fold equity and no implied odds. If I push I should expect to be called, and if I expect to be called I should expect to be in the lead.

If villain holds K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (which is probably near the bottom of his range) I'm a 44/55 dog and should therefore not push.

Really, the only hand I'm hoping villain has if I push is a worse flush draw that won't be able to get away at that point.

I think that since villain's range tilts away from flush draws and towards made hands (since he committed himself with the flop bet) a push should be out of the question.

Given that we shouldnt push, should we call?

nope, again no later street fold equity, no immediate or implied odds. Villain wants to get it all in.

I folded.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

wp.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

guru, if he's peeling with undercards he's probably also a loose caller of 3b's in position, why have you not pegged him for weaker FDs, KT and Qx rather than big made hands only? After all he will likely get it in with all these kind of hands too.

I think your PF reraise is too small also btw, i'd reraise to at least 3 there.

Let's say he reraises KK PF but not AA (ok??), and his range for flop committal include:

oard: Qd Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.099% 48.95% 00.15% 17445 54.00 { Ac7c }
Hand 1: 50.901% 50.75% 00.15% 18087 54.00 { AA, QQ-JJ, AQs, KcQc, KTs, Tc9c, AQo, KTo }

You're a dead heat there and I'd get it in. What would you rule out of my range to make it a fold? I think you need to consider the possibility of your A being a live out (but not 3 full outs lol).

EDIT: of course you should definitely not just peel and you knew that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I reckon it's push or fold and pushing isn't really really wrong. And it's sometimes good to let your opponents know you're willing to put it all in on a draw so the next time you have top set BOOM HEADSHOT

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

After the button's raise, there is $16.75 in the pot and the button has $8.10 left in his stack. It it $6 more to you, so you have to pay $14.10 to get all in. If you go all in right now, you would be paying $14.10 to win $24.85, giving you a little better odds than 7:4, so you need to win a little more than 36% of the time to break even. Against the range I gave you are 38% to win, making this a push, and if he is really loose, you could probably add more 1 pair and drawing hands which can only raises your equity.

[ QUOTE ]
If I push I should expect to be called, and if I expect to be called I should expect to be in the lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to always be in the lead when you get the money in, you just need the proper odds, which in this case, you do.

I would push.

Board: Qd Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.217% 38.06% 00.16% 26751 112.00 { Ac7c }
Hand 1: 61.783% 61.62% 00.16% 43315 112.00 { JJ+, 22, AQs-AJs, KJs+, KcTc, QJs, Tc9c, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo }

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

well the more i look at it the more it does look like some kind of dead heat.

pushing is a higher variance play, but probly better expected value given what's in the pot.

here's how I should have looked at it:

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.60
CO: $34.80
Button: $19.35
Guruman: $26.85
BB: $25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Guruman is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman raises to $2.25</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button makes an effective raise of $17.10</font>, Guruman is getting 14/24 on the call.

If I had just looked at the commitment raise as an acutal push I could have seen the maths a little clearer.

thx all.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

GURU REMEMBER SSSH WE LOOOOOOOOOOOOOVE VARIANCE!! IT MAKES MY SUN RISE EVERY MORNING AND THE STARS COME OUT EVERY EVENING!

When (if) I ever stop playing poker I will have to "create" variance in my day to day life to get my fix. In fact, maybe when I end up in Sri Lanka teaching english I'll come up with a system like if i draw one card each morning and i get the 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] at random then that day only I'll teach entirely in French.

That's the joy of variance.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are more then priced in to get it in asap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see your maths here.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against.

Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point?

[/ QUOTE ]

I said nothing about not understanding your post or being in agreement or disagreement with your recommendation. All you keep talking about is equity vs ranges and have said nothing about pot or implied odds.

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you are more then priced in to get it in asap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see your maths here.

[/ QUOTE ]
How about you read my post again and tell me what part was unclear to you. You realize we are 25% vs a set right? Based on the action I find it very very hard to put villain exclusively on a set but the majority of his range is hands like KQ, AQ, KK, AA and maybe even worse. Hands that we have much better equity against.

Edit: And this villain is much much looser, I think he can show up with stuff like QT, KT, 9T etc etc. You get my point?

[/ QUOTE ]

I said nothing about not understanding your post or being in agreement or disagreement with your recommendation. All you keep talking about is equity vs ranges and have said nothing about pot or implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, now I see your question. I mentioned in that post we need 36% equity when called, 14.1(our bet)/38.95(the size of the pot).

Re: drawing on the flop vs an unpredictable one
 

I really don't think 3-betting A7s from the SB is going to be profitable at all in the long run. Maybe if your image is tight and villain has been stealing a lot, but thats the only scenario I see this being a good move.

As played, I guess I would just push, but I really don't like it.