live 6/12, AKs CO
 

Hopefully this question isn't too mundane, but maybe it is and I'm just not used to seeing actual aggressive players.

First hand of a new game, 3 limpers, Hero raises A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO. BB calls, 5 players go to the flop.

Flop [9.5 SB]: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets, one call, one fold, HJ raises. BB counts out chips for a call.

My hand's worth, what, 5 outs? Is this an easy fold getting better than 6:1 and likely 7:1?

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

2 overs, a bd straight draw and a bd flush draw to the nuts. definitely worth sticking around.

i usually 3bet if it'll get me a free ride to the river.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

In general, I'd say you want to throw AK away in this sort of spot.

But since you seem pretty confidant that the BB is going to call (not raise), it's not likely anybody made 2 pair, and you've got the backdoor nut flush, I'd at least consider taking one off here.

However it'd be much easier to peel if you knew how passive the HJ is preflop. If he wouldn't have raised KQ, or AQ (less likely obv.) before the flop, that makes it a pretty easy fold.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

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However it'd be much easier to peel if you knew how passive the HJ is preflop. If he wouldn't have raised KQ, or AQ (less likely obv.) before the flop, that makes it a pretty easy fold.

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Your backdoor outs add quite a bit, about 3 outs collectively, but I agree with somapopper here that we really don't want to count our A and K outs as full outs if there's a good chance we will make our pair when someone else makes 2 pair.

Proceed but with caution.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

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we really don't want to count our A and K outs as full outs if there's a good chance we will make our pair when someone else makes 2 pair.

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while i agree with this in regards to the ace outs, most typically aggressive opponents would raise KQ pf. and while it's certainly possible they're playing Ace-rag, it's far less often you see a hand like K6. for that reason i'm giving us one out for our ace and probably 2 outs for our King. 1 out for the straight and 1.5 for the bd nut fd. so that's 1+2+1+1.5 for about 5.5 outs by my estimation.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

I also like our bd draws because if we hit one of them, we are likely to get some crazy action on the river.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

All right, I guess this is one where the math throws me. If I have a flush draw, I know I'm 2:1 to make it and can pump it against more than two opponents because I'm going to have odds to call on the turn. If I have just a gutshot, I'm around 11:1 to hit on the turn, but I can peel with a little less because of the implied odds on later streets if I hit.

In this case, my pot equity is somewhere north of 20% to make a winner by the river, making me around a 4.5:1 dog. But really, although an ace or a king may help me pull ahead, a lot of this equity comes from the backdoor draws. So should I be saying that it'll usually cost me 2 BB's to see the river (assuming I cold call two and it costs me one on the turn if I pick up a draw, although I did consider 3-banging as James suggested), so I want to be sure that my final pot will be greater 4.5*2 = 9 BB's? How large do you want your pot odds to be when so much of your equity comes from backdoor draws?

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

fold. Your hand is gross, and and it might get 3 bet behind you.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

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2 overs, a bd straight draw and a bd flush draw to the nuts. definitely worth sticking around.

i usually 3bet if it'll get me a free ride to the river.


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This is live 6/12, which means we have to give BB donkers, and HJ flop raisers more credit than usual. Also, the pot is smaller than it appears because of the brutal drop+tipping if you win the hand

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

FWIW, drop/tip are included in pot size in OP. So anyway, marginal decision I guess?

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

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FWIW, drop/tip are included in pot size in OP. So anyway, marginal decision I guess?



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IMO, you're much closer to 4 outs than you are to five outs. I say it's a somewhat close fold. The problem with these games is that you can't just look at a raggety board and say "no way someone has Q6 or 63", etc., and you have to give UNKNOWNS credit for having decent hands when they pump it up. If you have any read that they are above average aggression-wise, then you call if you know it won't be 3 bet behind you. Otherwise, just step off the variance train, and fold. This is either slightly +ev or majorly -EV, and you don't know which until you have a read on your opponents.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

We are discussing our backdoor opportunites but try also to look at some real scary reverse implied odds. If we hit the A on the turn we may be counterfeited or behind. So what do we do when we raise our A and get reraised?? The pot may be so big that we will almost have to call. Furthermore if we do hit a clean out on the turn it may well be outdrawn in a multiway pot on the river again.

Conclusion:
1. If we hit the turn the backdoordraws are gone and we may be suffering from reverse implied odds and the chance to get outdrawn on last street. That is - we have a marginal hand.

2. If we hit our flushdraw it may be expensive anyway making it just maybe a little +ev IF we catch a draw - remember somebody with a set has a 1:3.6 to a boat.

3. We may catch nothing and maybe call anyway.

Furthermore we may get reraised on the flop so this is a fold.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

If the BB wasn't counting out chips for a call, I'd say this was a clear fold. Getting 3 bet (and then maybe capped) would be a disaster.

As is, I think you still have to drop this. My solution to this problem is to fold the hand and walk away from the table, thus avoiding monkey tilt if my hand happens to run down the nuts.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

Wow what a tough spot this is..