Friday NCAAF picks
 

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

GL this year dude.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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Washington/Syracuse o45 bet 1.1u to win 1u

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Any thoughts on the pt spread there?

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

yeah, but you aren't going to like it

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K, hopefully we get a few luckbox turnovers ftw.

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Navy/Temple o51 bet 1.1u to win 1u

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Really? Close game, or Navy just destroys them?

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Can Temple really compete in this one?

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not sure...I have Navy 25 points better according to my power index, but I cannot really go by that since Temple is near the bottom and the index gets screwy (less reliable) at the extremes

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

Navy U51.5 1 unit

This is my only play for Friday so far. Will most likely only add 2nd half plays if anything else.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

strike my earlier comment...I put the game as though it was Navy at home and Temple on the road....my power index actually has it Navy -19.5 as the fair line

but, the qualifications on Temple being at the lower extreme still apply

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Washington -3.5 @ Syracuse bet 1u to win 1u

picks cross-posted

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

All right, I've got some Friday picks:

Washington -3 at Syracuse (Risk 1.2u to win 1u)
Navy/Temple over 52 (Risk 1.65u to win 1.5u)

Can't lineshop until I wager the money I put on WSEX once over so I can book-to-book transfer, but I like these picks anyway.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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Washington -3.5 @ Syracuse bet 1u to win 1u

picks cross-posted

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Love this pick. I was eyeing it all morning.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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Navy/Temple o51 bet 1.1u to win 1u

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Really? Close game, or Navy just destroys them?

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Well, MT2R disagreed on Buffalo and we're gonna disagree here, although I/we hate differing on these things.

1u to win on u52 Temple.

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Washington -3 for 1u.

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Ok update on full plays for tonight:

UW -3 1unit
Navy/Temple U51.5 1unit
Washington O45 1unit

6-2 record this year. +2.654units
Will also have halftime plays most likely tonight.

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Which is better, Washington -3 -120 or -3.5 -110?

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I added Navy -20.5

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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Which is better, Washington -3 -120 or -3.5 -110?

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10c for the push on 3 is a no brainer.

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ill give you even money on it you can have washington -3. but i only bet anywhere from 5-50$.

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ill give you even money on it you can have washington -3. but i only bet anywhere from 5-50$.

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so you're offering me Wash U -3 +100 with a $50 max? just let me know what payment methods you have, I can cover them all.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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c'mon guys, preseason is over.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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c'mon guys, preseason is over.

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Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

As I said it is from my point of view as I know most will disagree with it and it is specific for this game. There are exceptions to every rule and in this case from my analysis this is one of them. Don't want to argue with anyone as most of time I agree with you all that it is best to go with normal stance. If this is not valid then please help talk through this issue.


Edit: I am here to learn and fix any leak I may have. I do not have an ego about these things and am grateful for all the great info you all provide on these topics.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

I'm going with these two, pretty much agreeing with the board.

Wash -3 -120
Over 44.5

both to win 1 unit.

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Wash -3.5 -110

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betonline has -3 -110
matchbook had -3 -115 but i think its gone now

my only bet for the night unless bodog puts up some nice props

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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As I said it is from my point of view as I know most will disagree with it and it is specific for this game. There are exceptions to every rule and in this case from my analysis this is one of them. Don't want to argue with anyone as most of time I agree with you all that it is best to go with normal stance. If this is not valid then please help talk through this issue. .

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a) when you ask me to choose between an objective reality and someone's opinion, i will take objectivity every time. a half point on or off the 3 is worth more than 10 cents. this is indisputable due to a preponderance of data over a long period of time. on the other hand, everyone has an opinion about sports, which means on average, an opinion is worth nothing to me. even my own opinion is worth nothing when standing next to objectivity.

b) i don't think the often-seen analysis "if team X wins this game it will probably be in a blowout, so therefore take whatever bet has the least juice and don't worry about half points," has any merit whatsoever in the first week of the season. it might have small merit when there are playoff implications, or resting of players factors, involved. i can't think of any other angle you might be considering, to arrive at your conclusion.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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From my point of view you are better off taking the -3.5 for -110 on this game.

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c'mon guys, preseason is over.

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Just based on casual observations over the years & no real empirical evidence...but isn't the .5 much less likely to bite you in the ass in ncaa than the nfl?

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

pokerstars is fine. $50 even money no vig either side.

me: Wash U -3 +100
you: Syracuse +3 +100

please confirm our proposition in the public thread and have payout settled by midnight EST tonight (you can copy this reply into the forum if you want).

- p



yep this is cool with me. however i am going to the lakehouse tonight to watch the game with a buncha friends of mine and it doesnt have wireless internet. but i will pay saturday before 4:30 pm. if thats ok with you

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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Just based on casual observations over the years & no real empirical evidence...but isn't the .5 much less likely to bite you in the ass in ncaa than the nfl?

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less likely...yes.

"much" less likely...no.

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betonline has -3 -110
matchbook had -3 -115 but i think its gone now

my only bet for the night unless bodog puts up some nice props

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I'm only on Bodog and WSEX. Are those U.S. friendly sites? What sites are worth it for an American casual line shopper to invest money on?

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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pokerstars is fine. $50 even money no vig either side.

me: Wash U -3 +100
you: Syracuse +3 +100

please confirm our proposition in the public thread and have payout settled by midnight EST tonight (you can copy this reply into the forum if you want).

- p



yep this is cool with me. however i am going to the lakehouse tonight to watch the game with a buncha friends of mine and it doesnt have wireless internet. but i will pay saturday before 4:30 pm. if thats ok with you

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confirmed. best of luck to both of us.

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matchbook is US and is from the same people as WSEX so you get free account transfers between the two. just have to email them.

betonline is US friendly, been around for a while now

got A- on SBR

dunno about which books are the best, i just have money in all the top ones on SBR and use sbrlines to find the best one

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btw king yao has the half point off -3 worth 23 cents, based on nfl games between 1989 and 2006, in his "weighing the odds" book.

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it's worth less in NCAAF, but not that much less

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As Mac pointed it I was under the same understanding that the half a point is less likely to effect you in NCAAF comapred to NFL. Also that the NCAAF less often hits the -3 line comapred to NFL.

My analysis involves a probability distribution for each point and in rare cases the 3 point line turns out to be one of the lowest likely outcomes. I understand that there is added value in the fact that in one instance you have the ability to push and in the other you do not.

Thank you very much for your response and I just want to be clear I do not have an ego on these things and agree that objectivity outweighs opinion.

Re: Friday NCAAF picks
 

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betonline has -3 -110
matchbook had -3 -115 but i think its gone now

my only bet for the night unless bodog puts up some nice props

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I'm only on Bodog and WSEX. Are those U.S. friendly sites? What sites are worth it for an American casual line shopper to invest money on?

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IMO, you should have accounts at pretty much everything on the first page of SBRLines line movements

well...Pinny is non-US, but the rest are good
bookmaker, thegreek, matchbook, betJamaica, WSEX, 5dimes, betonline, legendz, bodog

plus it makes line shopping easy